[Jack]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', ' ')I wouldn't count SA as a candidate for the first place to die off.

[Jack]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'A')h yes, Jack. Others are saddened at the prospect of the world going to hell in a handcart. You are investing in handcarts.

[SDC]

Hey Jack, as a question, where does one go to invest in handcarts?

[Jack]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SDC', 'H')ey Jack, as a question, where does one go to invest in handcarts?

[MD]

....

"I'm sorry Joe, you will have to move on.

"But Frank, I have lived here ten years. If you put me out it will be the camps."

"Sorry Joe"

.....

"Dammit honey, we barely eating ourselves, we can't feed everyone."

"But we have to help as many as we can, people are starving out there, it's just our luck that you work for the county, that's all, and I will not turn away children."

.....

"There was another riot last night, this time in Charlotte. 800 dead they say."

.....

"I wish we could go see Grandma mommy, when will the big roads open again"

"I don't know honey, maybe not for awhile."

"I'm cold mommy."

"I know honey, snuggle up close here."

.....

"mommy, i don't feel good."

[MD]

Get more personal with the problem.

It's you and your neighbor, you and your coworker, your kids and the neighbors kids, your neighborhood, your city, your hospital, your morgue.

At all levels, stress beyond belief. Look at it hard and close, see the future, get strong and ready.

Get ready to die.

[venky]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MD', 'G')et more personal with the problem.

It's you and your neighbor, you and your coworker, your kids and the neighbors kids, your neighborhood, your city, your hospital, your morgue.

At all levels, stress beyond belief. Look at it hard and close, see the future, get strong and ready.

Get ready to die.

[MD]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('venky', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MD', 'G')et more personal with the problem.

It's you and your neighbor, you and your coworker, your kids and the neighbors kids, your neighborhood, your city, your hospital, your morgue.

At all levels, stress beyond belief. Look at it hard and close, see the future, get strong and ready.

Get ready to die.

[Revi]

I think I agree with MD. The potential for problems exists in the next five years, not far in the future. The winter of 2007/2008 is going to be tough for a lot of people around here. A lot of them live in trailers now, badly insulated boxes with no extra resources. They are still paying for last winter's heat. They'll be totally broke this spring. The economy isn't creating lots of jobs. There will be more unemployed in the event of a recession. A lot of people were riding the housing boom. They were installing sheetrock, moving furniture, etc. They may be out of work. If the dollar tanks, anyone who had a check coming in will not be able to afford the necessities. It'll be bad next winter. They are already hanging onto the outside of the bus. They will be off it soon.

[MD]

Three killers that are about to go into their own overshoot:

Cold, Sickness, and Hunger

Cold is a quiet and clean killer. The whole process is marked with a slowing down and a tendency for those freezing to withdraw in search of warmth. When warmth returns, the healthy survivors can deal with the dead without immediaite fear of disease. Cold death comes suddenly, and locally. It can be planned for and dealt with in all but the most extreme cases.

Sickness may be quiet, but it is not clean. Sickness is always there, chemically supressed in some regions to unnaturally low levels, waiting to be released into pandemic. Pandemic feeds panic, which does not abate quickly. Those that remain healthy cope with elevated stress, which weakens resistance. In the absence of cold, the warm fermenting bodies add new risk of their own.

Hunger is neither quiet nor clean. On an individual basis, resistance to cultural and moral barriers slowly dissipate as the pangs intensify. Collectively, a hungry mob can leave great destruction in their wake. Hunger normally exerts it's pressure over time, taking months or years to choke a system into submission.

There is a new hungry beast on the horizon with it's eye on The United States of America. A sudden onset hunger that would occur over a period of days should the transportation system suddenly fail. Hunger dropped on an unnaturally overfed and unnaturally healthy population.

Next step: Most likely effects of this sudden onset hunger.

[uNkNowN ElEmEnt]

My first ancestor here was exiled cause he slept with every woman in the French court... supposedly....

Of all the options presented I'd say dying by freezing is the best. I've frozen to death and once you get over the cold (it does go away and you actually feel warmer as your core temp drops) its really quite peaceful, then you fall asleep. But only countries in the northern climes (barring a change due to climate change) will have that luxury.

If there is any kind of die off I think it will get ugly and descend to a brand of chaos that will make the rest of the world stare on if only in horrid fascination at just what levels humanity can sink too.

At what point though will western countries stop supplying food aid to others and start feeding their own when they already have people starving in inner city disctricts?

[BlisteredWhippet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MD', 'W')ho dies first?

[Revi]

I don't know about the third, then second then the first world dieing off. The meek shall inherit the earth. I know that they won't do too well, but villages in the third world are mostly self sufficient. They'll suffer without oil, but they will keep going. I lived in one for 2 and a half years. The corn for the tortillas came from within sight of the village carried in on somebody's back. The cow that was going to be cut up and eaten was on display for a few hours outside of the slaughterhouse. Everything was very local. Third world cities are another story.

We're the ones with the extended supply lines. We may suffer the most from less energy. We need to heat our houses. We need to drive around and all our food is trucked in from far away.

[oowolf]

Everyone on the bus goes first if they can't survive without it. Folks who live in the woods and walk get to watch the riders die. I hope I live to see it.

(My direct ancestors, on both sides, were stripped of their lands and possessions; something I will fight to the last full measure to prevent happening to me.)

[PenultimateManStanding]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oowolf', '
')y direct ancestors, on both sides, were stripped of their lands and possessions; something I will fight to the last full measure to prevent happening to me.)

[Lighthouse]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', 'I')... I suppose that means Africa, and perhaps some areas of South America. From there - assuming global recession and some climate change - India looks ripe for dieoff...

[smallpoxgirl]

Re: the third world, I think it's important to remember that there are really at least two distinct realities in the third world. There are a fair number of subsistence farmers that will do just fine as the governments and agribusinesses start to collapse. The other reality, of course, is the urban poor. Being urban poor anywhere is going to be a death sentence IMHO. The rural poor may not have currency, but they are much less dependent on comodity goods and should do just fine.

This is the gaping hole in neo-liberal theory. Just comparing income tax returns is not sufficient to understand whether someone's lot in life is improving. If you get displaced off your land and forced into the city, you can be doing much worse even though your income increased.

[Lighthouse]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BlisteredWhippet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MD', 'W')ho dies first?

[Jack]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lighthouse', 'T')hose mentioned by you are used to live of nothing. They will not give a rats ass whether or not peak oil has hit the rest of the world ...

[smallpoxgirl]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', 'A')dd to that - no foreign aid shipments.