by The_Toecutter » Wed 01 Nov 2006, 23:15:49
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') owned Energy Conversion Devices stock through the 90s and into 2000, and followed all these developments fairly closely. The entire acquistion of Ovonics by Chevron through Texaco was a calculated plan to shelve this technology. I also recall Ovshinsky quotes in Shareholder packets, about the price of EV NiMH batteries going down dramatically, if mass produced.
Could you scan any of these by chance? Someone posted NiMH price versus volume on the EV list in the late 1990s and I came across it in a search about 2 years ago. $150/kWh in volume of 20,000 cars per year. But I only had that post, claiming this came from a slide that former ECD chairman Robert Stemple presented. I'd love to have a concrete source! The EV list would thank you many times over if you could find that.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hanks for the info. I wasn't aware of the problems of small NiMH versus the larger units in EVs. This fills in another void in the puzzle. I often wondered why NiMH became available in the smaller sizes - cell phones, bicycle headlights, etc. It's because they could make a buck on the product with the small units, but hold the large battery price at too high of a level to compete with fossil fuels.
Ever read the EV world blog entry on this subject?
http://www.evworld.com/blogs/index.cfm?page=blogentry&blogid=104&authorid=51&archive=0
How about Remy Chevalier's article?
http://www.electrifyingtimes.com/hurryupandwait.html
I can also back up the info I earlier typed with sources, if you're interested. Below is the source to the original PDF file claiming $225/kWh in mass production and 1,750 cycles to 100% discharge for large AH NiMH. It is no longer active, however:
http://www.team-fate.net/technicalrepor ... Report.pdf
Google yields this cached link, containnig the same info:
Design and Development of the UC Davis FutureTruck
Check page 11:
"Analysis of existing battery life cycle data and consultation with industry experts indicates that mature NiMH technology should withstand approxamately 1,750 full discharges with an annual life exceeding seven to ten years."
Also of note:
"A cost of $225/kWh for large volume production (> 20,000 units) is favored by many analysts."
1,750 cycles to 100% discharge is a very long life!
A 200 mile range midsize car would in theory have a pack that lasts 350,000 miles before range is only 80% of the original rating. The electric motor and control system would last even longer.
Here is one of the earlier studies detailing the use of large AH NiMH in SCE's RAV4 EV fleet:
http://www.evchargernews.com/miscfiles/sce-rav4ev-100k.pdf
"Test data provide strong evidence that all five vehicles will exceed the 100,000-mile mark and SCE's positive experience points to a very strong likelihood of a 130,000 to 150,000-mile battery and drivetrain operational life."
This was in 2000. As of 2006, the most senior vehicles in the fleet are still chugging along at 150k miles.
The RAV4 EV had a 26 kWh pack. Hand made, it was like $30,000. If it were produced in high volume, at $225/kWh, it would be $5,850. At 150,000 miles life, this is a $.039/mile battery cost!
A larger pack will yield a disproportionately longer battery life, lowering cost.
Lets do a hypothetical cost comparision, between a gasoline powered RAV4 of 1999 model year, and an electric one assuming mass production of batteries. We'll use $2.10/gallon as the gasoline cost, $.10/kWh for electricity cost.
The gasoline version of the RAV4 gets 26 mpg combined and costs roughly $.04/mile to maintain. At $2.10/gallon, this is $.1208/mile fuel + maintenance.
The electric version of the RAV4 gets .4 kWh/mile from the electric outlet, costs $.01/mile in maintenance, and $.039/mile for battery. At $.10/kWh, this is $.089 electricity + battery + maintenance.
Over 150,000 miles, the electric version would save the operator $4,770 at today's gas and electricity prices. At $3.00/gallon, this savings jumps to $9,958. In $7.00/gallon Europe, assuming $.20/kWh electricity for Europe, this savings jumps to $25,835! That's a lot of coin in any of those cases.
The RAV4 EV would achieve cost parity with its gasoline counterpart at $1.27/gallon. Gas is never going to be this cheap again and hasn't been this cheap since 911.
Any higher than $1.27/gallon, the electric car is cheaper to operate than its gasoline powered counterpart. Gas is currently a cheap $2.10/gallon, and will rise rapidly post election season or a few months after.
It becomes quite clear why the auto industry, oil industry, and governments of the world don't want us using EVs over gas cars and why they have stifled this alternative. There goes their huge profit margins and revenues.
The prospect of a dieoff from an oil shortage, resource wars, and internal strife does not bother them. They want their money first and foremost, and to hell with everyone else or the consequences of their actions.
The unnecessary felling of a tree, perhaps the old growth of centuries, seems to me a crime little short of murder. ~Thomas Jefferson