[Lokutus]

in the Peak Oil living room.

Just ignore it so that it goes away.

What's is this "elephant"?

It's the fact that gas prices at the pump have plummeted almost a dollar in some areas since summer.

Cue standard kneejerk reaction:

Bush and his Saudi pals are manipulating the market for the lection.

Oh really? How can Bush and Rove manipulate the market this much if we are to take seriously the claims that the global supply is already maxed out at 84.5 mbpd as demand skyrockets thanks to the Chinese?

I can believe a $.25 drop but a dollar?

Something is wrong here.

[AgentR]

You think this is fun?? Wait a few more years down the road when maximal demand can force the price all the way to $6 / gallon; and then collapse, causing the price to plummet back to $3 / gallon.

Its jitter. Going forward, the greater the ability of demand to briefly surpass production rate, the more violent one can expect this jitter to become.

[Lokutus]

Someone please remind me again just what the difference is between the Peak Oil Doomsday Cult and all the other doomsday cults.

I've forgotten.

[NEOPO]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lokutus', 'S')omeone please remind me again just what the difference is between the Peak Oil Doomsday Cult and all the other doomsday cults.

I've forgotten.

[Dreamtwister]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lokutus', 'S')omeone please remind me again just what the difference is between the Peak Oil Doomsday Cult and all the other doomsday cults.

I've forgotten.

[Lokutus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dreamtwister', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lokutus', 'S')omeone please remind me again just what the difference is between the Peak Oil Doomsday Cult and all the other doomsday cults.

I've forgotten.

[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lokutus', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dreamtwister', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lokutus', 'S')omeone please remind me again just what the difference is between the Peak Oil Doomsday Cult and all the other doomsday cults.

I've forgotten.

[BlisteredWhippet]

Its very simple, Lokutus.

In the price of a gallon of gasoline, there is the "actual" value of a gallon of gasoline, plus taxes & fees, and then the speculation premium. That speculation premium is valued anywhere between the ACTUAL value (the price will not fall below ACTUAL value) and what market speculators think the price will be TOMORROW (and no one knows what that will be).

So if gasoline falls by $1/gallon in any period, you can be sure that this is within the speculative price range. Gasoline certainly isn't worth LESS than what it currently is, but it might significantly rise TOMORROW, and no one knows exactly what that figure is.

We can certainly draw inferences about the trend in ACTUAL price by looking at past performance. For example, if oil is $65/bbl today and is considered by many the lowest possible price (the cellar) off its ceiling of $88, and just 6 years ago it was $25/bbl., then we might guess that the ACTUAL VALUE of gas is quite a bit higher than it was a year ago. Of course a couple million speculators might be wrong, and just gouging the consumer, which is certainly possible given the closed, non-democratic nature of oil companies and organizations.

Think like a speculator. Do you think demand will increase? If demand increases, will supply go up? Fill in the blanks.

Your doubt about PO outcomes is natural. You look at certain specific indicators, and use this data for a gut-check. I would argue that gas prices are a poor guage for gut-check, partially because the price is highly speculative. Stop thinking like a amateur loser investor who picks stock by looking at prices. Winning stockpickers look at fundamentals.

You want to be a winner, don't you Lokutus?

[AgentR]

Yall might find this stuff a whole lot less confusing if you looked at it from the point of view of the US and China on the same team.

Do the Patriot Acts and the MCA look like the US is trying to be different than China, or does it look like the US is trying to become more like China? Hmmm???

Same team guys. Why are we not filling our SPR while China is filling theirs? We aren't competing, we're working in concert. Dollars outbound, resources inbound. We enforce subservience in the Mideast, the Chinese enforce subservience in Africa.

Whose feelings and interests have we stomped on more over the last six years, China, or Europe?

[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR', 'Y')all might find this stuff a whole lot less confusing if you looked at it from the point of view of the US and China on the same team.

Do the Patriot Acts and the MCA look like the US is trying to be different than China, or does it look like the US is trying to become more like China? Hmmm???

Same team guys. Why are we not filling our SPR while China is filling theirs? We aren't competing, we're working in concert. Dollars outbound, resources inbound. We enforce subservience in the Mideast, the Chinese enforce subservience in Africa.

Whose feelings and interests have we stomped on more over the last six years, China, or Europe?

[Loki]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lokutus', 'S')omeone please remind me again just what the difference is between the Peak Oil Doomsday Cult and all the other doomsday cults.

I've forgotten.

[AgentR]

threadbear, I know the arguments on both sides of this discussion about whether its China&Russia, or China&US... I do disagree with that conclusion, but I understand that others may hold that opposing view in good faith.

The problem I have with the Russia&China argument is that it assumes a steady state with regard to Russian export production. Its not happening yet, but I'd suspect that Russia does not intend to be an exporter of oil for all that much longer. They've paid off their external liabilities, they've expanded their internal infrastructure, and they're beginning to (re?)build a modern industrial capacity. I see them doing the same as the US did, switching to a heavy industrial economy, and eventually using all or almost all of their oil and gas internally. Ten years from now, they will not be exporting millions of barrels of oil to China or anywhere else.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', ' ') It's clear that with consolidation in the industry, that price manipulation would be pretty easy. They are likely taking an intentional hit right now, to help the Bushies stay in power.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', ' ') At this point, though, it certainly doesn't look like we're in for a geological shock of epic proportions, ending in a die off--don't buy that for a minute.

[mekrob]

8%? I've never seen that. I have seen 5% which seems more realistic. Besides, that is before new fields and new projects are added. We obviously aren't declining overall at 8% or even 5%. If we were and we knew it, then I don't think we'd be spending time on here. We're still holding strong at 84-85 mbpd and will probably increase in the next few years, and most likely stay at or above current levels.

You also have to keep in mind that oil provides 40% of our energy use, not 100%. So even a 50% drop-off in oil is only 20% overall (nothing to be happy about, but it's manageable initially). NG and coal are still set to increase, further mitigating the immediate effects of PO.

I'm not saying that the population collapse won't happen, but I am saying that there most likely will not be a "die-off", as in hundreds of millions dying in the streets and deserts all over the world directly after PO. I see the population collapse coming from resource wars and simply the lowering of the population generationally (the elders will die while the youth will not reproduce as much as it would take away their own resources, thus a 'natural' decline).

[AgentR]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'I')'d call 50% cut in less than 9 years quite "a geological shock of epic proportions."

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mekrob', '8')%? I've never seen that.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'I')'d call 50% cut in less than 9 years quite "a geological shock of epic proportions."

[The_Toecutter]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')r are we above nature and not subject to it's laws?