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PeakOil is You

The Financial Bubbles (merged)

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: What's the next Bubble?

Unread postby o2ny » Thu 21 Sep 2006, 01:24:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pogoliamo', 'O')ver the next years there will be no bubble. Commodities will drop significantly, but dont hold your breath for 250$ gold or 30$ oil. Nobody will be so stupid to sell you on that prices anymore. Some shares may perform well, again, no tenbaggers anymore. An so on...

...
Maybe the best is to keep your money in cash in bank account. If there is deflation you may even get your reward. If there is a sudden opportunity you wont miss it.



Are you talking about commodities priced in dollars? There's definitely a chance the dollar could implode causing a huge runup in commodities... check out Peter Schiff in this video from Bloomberg. Nice summary of what the real-estate collapse is doing to the US economy... "All of the home price appreciation in the past 5 years will be erased."... nice

Most seem to agree we're headed for slowing growth and/or recession thanks to the housing bubble deflating, but frankly the cherry-picked economic data and all the divergent views on what will happen next confuse the hell out of me... so my investment strategy right now is 2 separate piles; cash & gold. Seems like it could go either way right now... (really depends on China & the fed- 2 wildcards). Also think I'm gonna stay away from domestic stocks.
"If you're always looking for the invisible hand to guide you, you will find that the invisible hand often gives you the invisible finger." - some guy on CNBC
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Re: What's the next Bubble?

Unread postby pogoliamo » Thu 21 Sep 2006, 04:40:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('o2ny', '
')... check out Peter Schiff ...


I did and that's what I got:
Peter Schiff 3 months ago

You do your maths and make your conclusions. Just listen to his BS about gold and hear his opponent view about stock performance in the next months. You now have the facts - compare.

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All interviews
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Re: What's the next Financial Bubble?

Unread postby FoxV » Thu 21 Sep 2006, 12:19:00

from what I read over at Itulip.com the next bubble will be an "inflation" bubble where the fed allows the dollar to fall in a reasonable manner to bail out the US gov, Home owners, and MBS holders; such as Fannie/Freddie, hedge funds, and pensions. (holding rates steady while official inflation is "too high" is the begining of this)

This will also have the wonderful effect of screwing over everyone else on the planet, but ce la vie.

I am also of the opinion that like all previous bubbles, the FED will mis-manage this one as well and it will fall apart. Just like all previous attempts to bail people out from one asset collapse by bubbling up another.
Angry yet?
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Re: What's the next Financial Bubble?

Unread postby EnergyHog » Thu 21 Sep 2006, 13:03:34

Gold and silver.
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Re: What's the next Financial Bubble?

Unread postby FatherOfTwo » Thu 21 Sep 2006, 13:54:31

commodities
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Re: What's the next Financial Bubble?

Unread postby lowem » Fri 22 Sep 2006, 01:28:06

Alternative energy.
Live quotes - oil/gold/silver
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Biggest bubble - derivatives Trading Soars to $370 trillion

Unread postby Graeme » Sat 25 Nov 2006, 02:28:39

The biggest bubble of all - derivatives Trading Soars to $370 Trillion - it will be the root cause for global depression

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he kind of euphoria in derivative trading has never been seen before. The amount of outstanding credit-default swaps contracts jumped by 60% at the end of last year. This year the rise is even faster. It is a typical pyramiding technique. Money is creating false concept of money and that in turn is creating ever lager conceptual money. When the tide blow off and balloon bursts, the catastrophe will be unimaginable. The 1929 debacle and resulting depression will be miniscule to what is coming.


indiadaily

This article is also published on the EnergyBulletin site. What do the economists posting here think of this?!!
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Re: Biggest bubble - derivatives Trading Soars to $370 trill

Unread postby jato » Sat 25 Nov 2006, 13:29:57

You know these terms:
10^6 million
10^9 billion
10^12 trillion

Now get used to these:

10^15 quadrillion
10^18 quintillion
10^21 sextillion
10^24 septillion
10^27 octillion
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Re: Biggest bubble - derivatives Trading Soars to $370 trill

Unread postby peaker_2005 » Sat 25 Nov 2006, 15:15:39

I wouldn't call myself an economist (though I did study economics at High School), but I've felt we've been waaay overblown for a while.
"Human beings, who are almost unique in having the ability to learn from the experience of others, are also remarkable for their apparent disinclination to do so." - Douglas Adams
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Re: Biggest bubble - derivatives Trading Soars to $370 trill

Unread postby Cobra_Strike » Sat 25 Nov 2006, 23:57:46

Well now....hmmm....Guess the main reason the mainstream media is ignoring this is that there does not seem to be any positive way it could possibly be spun.
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Re: Biggest bubble - derivatives Trading Soars to $370 trill

Unread postby Zardoz » Sun 26 Nov 2006, 12:33:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', '.')..What do the economists posting here think of this?!!

I posted it in the economics forum, and it's drawn very little response so far:

http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic25309.html
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Re: Biggest bubble - derivatives Trading Soars to $370 trill

Unread postby Zardoz » Sun 26 Nov 2006, 12:44:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Shannymara', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', 'I') posted it in the economics forum, and it's drawn very little response so far:

I suggest you edit the title of that other thread to indicate the topic more clearly. That might draw more interest.

Good idea. I'll throw in the $370 trillion figure.
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Re: Biggest bubble - derivatives Trading Soars to $370 trill

Unread postby Armageddon » Sun 26 Nov 2006, 13:47:41

Can someone give a simple explanation to what this all means to a non economist. Thanks.
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Re: Biggest bubble - derivatives Trading Soars to $370 trill

Unread postby Zardoz » Sun 26 Nov 2006, 14:03:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('armegeddon', 'C')an someone give a simple explanation to what this all means to a non economist. Thanks.

I've been trying to understand derivatives, but I still don't really get it.

Derivative

Derivatives market

Derivative

Derivatives Explained
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All the World's a Bubble

Unread postby mmasters » Fri 27 Apr 2007, 12:33:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')ow high will the Dow go? 15,000? 20,000?
How about 36,000?

While euphoria sweeps stock markets here and worldwide, there are at least a few voices of dissent.

One, unsurprisingly, is legendary value investor Jeremy Grantham -- the man Dick Cheney, plus a lot of other rich people, trusts with his money. Grantham, chairman of Boston firm Grantham Mayo Van Otterloo, has been a voice of caution for years. But he has upped his concerns in his latest letter to shareholders. Grantham says we are now seeing the first worldwide bubble in history covering all asset classes.

Everything is in bubble territory, he says.

Everything. 'The bursting of this bubble will be across all countries and all assets.'

more at:
http://biz.yahoo.com/ts/070427/10353243.html?.v=2


So what are you gonna do when the bubble pops? :lol:
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Re: All the World's a Bubble

Unread postby dukey » Fri 27 Apr 2007, 12:39:42

seems like a good excuse to have a party :p
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Re: All the World's a Bubble

Unread postby emersonbiggins » Fri 27 Apr 2007, 12:39:44

Just recalled from the bookstore bargain bin...
Image
"It's called the American Dream because you'd have to be asleep to believe it."

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Re: All the World's a Bubble

Unread postby Tyler_JC » Fri 27 Apr 2007, 12:59:47

Well, in 10 years the Dow went from 2,000 to 10,000. That's a compound rate of increase of only 17% a year.

To go from Dow 10,000 to Dow 100,000 at a 17% annual rate of increase takes only 15 years.

The power of compounding is utterly incredible.

And in 1999, it seemed reasonable that the stock market would continue to return 17% a year from now until the end of time.

Because obviously Cisco Systems would eventually have a market capitalization greater than global GDP by 2015...

That is how valuable that stock would need to be by 2015 in order to justify its March, 2000 earnings per share ratio.:lol:
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Re: All the World's a Bubble

Unread postby Lore » Fri 27 Apr 2007, 13:29:01

The market will just blow another bubble till it can't anymore.
The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
... Theodore Roosevelt
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Re: All the World's a Bubble

Unread postby Madpaddy » Fri 27 Apr 2007, 14:54:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')verything is in bubble territory, he says.

Everything. 'The bursting of this bubble will be across all countries and all assets.'


Is that even possible. Usually money goes out of one asset class and into another asset class. The whole thing is a pile of s..t anyway. In God we trust. Growth defined by how quickly we can pull stuff out of the ground and how quickly we can degrade our environment. I believe that future generations (may God or some deity or some alien overlord help them) will view economics the way we now view alchemy or human sacrifice, an outdated and horrible ritualistic belief. Economics the subject of oxymorons like,

Sustainable growth.
Economic Science.
Privatisation of public transport.
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