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Respectability of PO in the Scientific Community

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Respectability of PO in the Scientific Community

Unread postby TheDude » Mon 04 Sep 2006, 16:03:15

How is PO being treated in peer reviewed journals and the like? Broadly speaking, a percentage figure perhaps. I assume that it's considered a given universally. Climatologists could debate the issue of global warming but people in the oil industry know that this must happen. I assume. Unless they're into abiotic theories and such, but the mainstream opinion of theories like that files it under pseudoscience, right?
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Re: Respectability of PO in the Scientific Community

Unread postby MonteQuest » Mon 04 Sep 2006, 16:39:04

It has gotten a fair amount of good press, meaning it hasn't been displayed as quack or cult-like, just that technology and investment will come to the rescue.

When the respectability goes down is from the rants we often see on here depicting Peakoilers as doomers, purveyors of a myth or a cult-like sect.

I find all of that to be child-like immature sandbox noise.

You can't get more unprofessional when discussing major issues like this than to resort to name-calling to try and win a debate.

Name-calling never has won anyone respect.
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Re: Respectability of PO in the Scientific Community

Unread postby Carlhole » Mon 04 Sep 2006, 17:55:58

AAAHHHHHHHhhhhhh Shhaddap! Ya long-eared galoot!


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Re: Respectability of PO in the Scientific Community

Unread postby NEOPO » Mon 04 Sep 2006, 18:30:33

Yole sammity!!!

PO is geology is a science is respected.

Observation becomes science once and only if you can get beyond the violent opposition part.

In the future we could have 1000's of new sciences, current sciences may morph and some may even cease to be studied.

I take offense to the title of this thread!! ;-)
M. King Hubbert

Pseudointellectuals might file PO under pseudoscience....... yeah ;-)
They would save the science file for real science like economics or business ;-)

dunt duh duh
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Re: Respectability of PO in the Scientific Community

Unread postby TheDude » Mon 04 Sep 2006, 18:32:35

About the last thing I'm interested in is what goes on here!
Is it only in geology circles that PO is being discussed? Are economics or environmental people talking about it? What's the broad concensus on viability of alternative energy versus current demand? And so forth.
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Re: Respectability of PO in the Scientific Community

Unread postby NEOPO » Mon 04 Sep 2006, 18:47:02

I walked up to a guy one day and asked him if he knew where blah blah was and he looked and me and said "yes, yes I do". ;-)
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Re: Respectability of PO in the Scientific Community

Unread postby rogerhb » Mon 04 Sep 2006, 20:33:14

It's worth reading the original story of Cassandra.
"Complex problems have simple, easy to understand, wrong answers." - Henry Louis Mencken
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Re: Respectability of PO in the Scientific Community

Unread postby Gazzatrone » Mon 04 Sep 2006, 22:15:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gideon', 'A')nd that's when I start to contemplate moving to some very primative third world island nation so that I can live my life without being around the stupidest educated people in the world.


Why bother moving, if its the primative life you seek. A few years Post Peak that's exactly where you'll be living, but without the need to move.

Besides if you do move you'll just be considered inconsiderate for burning all that fuel to move yourself and possessions. Fuel that could have gone into a Hummer.
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Re: Respectability of PO in the Scientific Community

Unread postby TheDude » Tue 05 Sep 2006, 00:23:52

Are you guys paid trolls or something? Traumatized by the doomerish posts here? Once again - I'm interested in what the scientific community thinks, not the man/woman in the street, who are busy rooting through garbage cans or talking on their cell phones.
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Re: Respectability of PO in the Scientific Community

Unread postby BrownDog » Tue 05 Sep 2006, 00:44:49

If you want to know what the scientific community thinks, then you should probably ask him/her.
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Re: Respectability of PO in the Scientific Community

Unread postby Carlhole » Tue 05 Sep 2006, 01:26:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', 'A')re you guys paid trolls or something? Traumatized by the doomerish posts here? Once again - I'm interested in what the scientific community thinks, not the man/woman in the street, who are busy rooting through garbage cans or talking on their cell phones.


Peak Oil is a debate. The total amount of oil (URR) is a mystery because oil reserve information is a highly secret affair for both oil producing countries as well as oil companies. Also, technology and economics play a significant role in extraction.

Perhaps there will be a significant technological breakthrough that will allow greater amounts of oil to be extracted from existing wells. Who knows? The optimists bank on those sorts of breakthroughs while the pessimists do not. The debate has been steadily escalating over the past several years, particularly because of the steady price rise in oil and te US unilateral invasion of the ME.

The PO side of the debate has been winning converts over this time period, however, winning converts does not necessarily reduce the murk that one must peer through in order to perceive the true reality of the oil question. That would require a serious concerted worldwide effort by all countries and oil interests everywhere which doesn't look likely. So its an information warfare game that IMO the peaksters have been winning.

PO naysayers might disagree with people like Deffeyes or Campbell or Simmons but they certainly don't ridicule or marginalize them.

IMO, it's the markets that are always the best predictor of these murky kinds of things. The price has been rising. I'd say, if it breaks through $100 and shows strength, no one at all will be poo-pooing anyone in the PO camp.
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Re: Respectability of PO in the Scientific Community

Unread postby garyp » Tue 05 Sep 2006, 03:39:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', 'A')re you guys paid trolls or something? Traumatized by the doomerish posts here? Once again - I'm interested in what the scientific community thinks, not the man/woman in the street, who are busy rooting through garbage cans or talking on their cell phones.

In general I'd say PO gets filed along with politics by most in the scientific community. Some elements; hubbert peak <> central limit theorem, availability of a finite resource, prediction of potential reserves from limited data, systems dynamics aspects etc. might be considered semi scientific, but much of it goes off into handwaving arguments that have nothing to do with science - more justification of positions.

For instance you might theorise that corn ethanol is unable to provide an alternative to fossil fuels. However if you are looking at a scientific argument you would not only have to do a few area calculations - you would need to cover the multiple factors in detail, showing that it was not physically possible to end up with a workable solution. You would need to cover how corn might be genetical engineered to produce more fuelstock, and the limits to that. You would need to cover alternative mechanism for harvest and processing. You would need to look a the large scale systematic changes and the potential extent of their impact on consumption requirements. Finally you could look at surface area and understand the maximum possible production. You would need to show that in EVERY case it was impossible, then you might have a scientific argument for discussion.

In the general physics domain I wouldn't say I've heard much discussion, and even in academic security and resilience discussions PO tends to hardly get a mention - significantly behind climate change and terrorism.

Needless to say, almost the entirety of the doomer perspective on PO has nothing to do with a scientific viewpoint and tends to turn it into a cult type exercise as far as the scientific community is concerned. Science is about finding answers to problems, understand the world and its potentials. From a scientific perspective the lack of an ever increasing supply of fossil fuels is an opportunity for change.
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Re: Respectability of PO in the Scientific Community

Unread postby Doly » Tue 05 Sep 2006, 05:15:08

Academics are known for being ivory tower types, that don't notice much about what's going on in the world at large until it hits them on the face. They concentrate on their speciality, otherwise.

Many geologists know about peak oil. When I first became aware of peak oil, I had a good look at the newsgroup alt.geo.petroleum (I'm not sure I got the name right, it was something like that). These people started discussing peak oil around 1999. Hubbert's peak was already well known to most of them.

Scientific American has been publishing more and more articles about energy issues, but they tend to concentrate on global warming, rather than peak oil. They do know about peak oil, of course (they published that famous article by Colin Campbell). I guess it doesn't seem as pressing, or as well-known, to them.

So my impression is that the scientific community that counts, that is, geologists, generally agree with the basic premise of peak oil, but the rest are generally unaware.

When it comes to consequences, such as economic consequences, there isn't really a "scientific community" that can talk with expertise about it. Unless you want to consider economists as scientists, which is a big leap of faith for me.
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Re: Respectability of PO in the Scientific Community

Unread postby NEOPO » Tue 05 Sep 2006, 08:13:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BrownDog', 'I')f you want to know what the scientific community thinks, then you should probably ask him/her.


Good one BrownDog ;-)
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Re: Respectability of PO in the Scientific Community

Unread postby BrazilianPO » Tue 05 Sep 2006, 08:42:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', 'A')re you guys paid trolls or something? Traumatized by the doomerish posts here? Once again - I'm interested in what the scientific community thinks, not the man/woman in the street, who are busy rooting through garbage cans or talking on their cell phones.


If anyone wants to know about the scientific community opinion, go to Google Scholar and search for "Peak Oil". There are 867 hits, and plenty of information. However, most papers are not directly accessible, so you must be in a university or institution that subscribes to the most well-known journals to actually download and read them.
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Re: Respectability of PO in the Scientific Community

Unread postby lorenzo » Tue 05 Sep 2006, 14:47:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', 'A')re you guys paid trolls or something? Traumatized by the doomerish posts here? Once again - I'm interested in what the scientific community thinks, not the man/woman in the street, who are busy rooting through garbage cans or talking on their cell phones.


As far as I can tell, there is nobody in the scientific community working on "Peak Oil", simply because it's a non-sensical topic, from a scientific point of view.

I have never seen a single peer-reviewed article about it in any scientific journal. Maybe others have.

You indeed point to a good question. The peer-review technique is well-established in science and academia, and it is based on scientific journals. So that excludes people writing bestselling doom pulp or pseudo-scientific reports that nobody reads.

There are standard measuring techniques to see what a topic means in the scientific community, and using these techniques, "Peak Oil" means nothing.

That doesn't mean that it isn't an interesting subject. It just isn't from a science perspective.
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Re: Respectability of PO in the Scientific Community

Unread postby KhanCEO » Tue 05 Sep 2006, 14:48:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')I find all of that to be child-like immature sandbox noise.

You can't get more unprofessional when discussing major issues like this than to resort to name-calling to try and win a debate.

Name-calling never has won anyone respect.


Everyone I know is a total idiot , top to bottom , no question. No one in the United States of America researches anything.They all seem to think that everything is fine because no one told them otherwise. I hope these are the first people to go, I'm sick of them.
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Re: Respectability of PO in the Scientific Community

Unread postby rwwff » Tue 05 Sep 2006, 16:45:45

What is there to research from a scientific perspective on PO??

Predictive stuff about economy, politics, and population aren't going to merit anything greater that editorial status.

The only scientifically discussable part of the issue is whether there is a finite amount of oil in the ground. If one were to say, "abiotic" then you'd claim that the supply was not limited by current supplies; otherwise, you say, "biological", and that supply is limited to what is currently in the ground; thus there exists a point where some much lower amount of oil will be extracted each year.

But there is no way to prove that this will create war, or famine, or that the economy will crash as a result.
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Re: Respectability of PO in the Scientific Community

Unread postby rogerhb » Tue 05 Sep 2006, 17:13:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rwwff', 'B')ut there is no way to prove that this will create war, or famine, or that the economy will crash as a result.


Unless you follow the social sciences and look at what happens when societies are stressed.
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Re: Respectability of PO in the Scientific Community

Unread postby TheDude » Tue 05 Sep 2006, 23:52:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lorenzo', 'T')here are standard measuring techniques to see what a topic means in the scientific community, and using these techniques, "Peak Oil" means nothing.


Or that those techniques are only of use with narrow topics/fields? Peak Oil would have to be addressed by a number of scientists working in multiple fields at once, wouldn't you say?
Aren't broad approachs like this being applied to problems in archaeology? Does anyone have the training to consider multiple fields and derive sound conclusions therefrom? It's what you'd hope for in a politician but good luck!

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rwff', 'P')redictive stuff about economy, politics, and population aren't going to merit anything greater that editorial status.


Anyone besides Heinberg, Campbell, or Simmons writing editorials?
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