by garyp » Tue 05 Sep 2006, 03:39:52
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', 'A')re you guys paid trolls or something? Traumatized by the doomerish posts here? Once again - I'm interested in what the scientific community thinks, not the man/woman in the street, who are busy rooting through garbage cans or talking on their cell phones.
In general I'd say PO gets filed along with politics by most in the scientific community. Some elements; hubbert peak <> central limit theorem, availability of a finite resource, prediction of potential reserves from limited data, systems dynamics aspects etc. might be considered semi scientific, but much of it goes off into handwaving arguments that have nothing to do with science - more justification of positions.
For instance you might theorise that corn ethanol is unable to provide an alternative to fossil fuels. However if you are looking at a scientific argument you would not only have to do a few area calculations - you would need to cover the multiple factors in detail, showing that it was not physically possible to end up with a workable solution. You would need to cover how corn might be genetical engineered to produce more fuelstock, and the limits to that. You would need to cover alternative mechanism for harvest and processing. You would need to look a the large scale systematic changes and the potential extent of their impact on consumption requirements. Finally you could look at surface area and understand the maximum possible production. You would need to show that in EVERY case it was impossible, then you might have a scientific argument for discussion.
In the general physics domain I wouldn't say I've heard much discussion, and even in academic security and resilience discussions PO tends to hardly get a mention - significantly behind climate change and terrorism.
Needless to say, almost the entirety of the doomer perspective on PO has nothing to do with a scientific viewpoint and tends to turn it into a cult type exercise as far as the scientific community is concerned. Science is about finding answers to problems, understand the world and its potentials. From a scientific perspective the lack of an ever increasing supply of fossil fuels is an opportunity for change.