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BBC Radio 4 series: "Driven By Oil"

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BBC Radio 4 series: "Driven By Oil"

Unread postby FishAreBest » Wed 30 Aug 2006, 03:16:41

The words "Peak Oil" and "Running Out" were used during the trailer for this forthcoming program.

4 part series, starts Monday 9am (UK time) link
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Re: BBC Radio 4 series - Driven By Oil

Unread postby rogerhb » Wed 30 Aug 2006, 04:02:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FishAreBest', 'T')he words "Peak Oil" and "Running Out" were used during the trailer for this forthcoming program.
.. and "we're Expletive deleted.'? Actually when in the UK my radio is superglued to Radio 4.

James Howard Kunstler was on Campbell Live last night. We're doomed, Capt Mainwaring, we're doomed!!
"Complex problems have simple, easy to understand, wrong answers." - Henry Louis Mencken
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Re: BBC Radio 4 series - Driven By Oil

Unread postby Cran » Wed 30 Aug 2006, 10:23:09

DON'T P A N I C !!! DON'T P A N I C !!! :shock:
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Re: BBC Radio 4 series - Driven By Oil

Unread postby venky » Wed 30 Aug 2006, 21:38:48

There have been a few rather doomerish Peak Oil programs in the media recently; there was the one the other day on the Australian 60 minutes.

Actually more than Peak Oil what I am worried about is the possible panic of the masses.

KEEP CALM, DONT PANIC.............WOMEN AND CHILDREN FIRST........ :shock:
I play the cards I'm dealt, though I sometimes bluff.

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Re: BBC Radio 4 series - Driven By Oil

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Thu 31 Aug 2006, 02:31:51

In that Australian piece (which I thought was quite good) the girl kept using the words running out of oil. She said it too much and didnt spend enough time on the real theory of PO. I'm really getting tired of folks talking about running out. It puts a "whacko" light on the whole thing. Most viewers then switch thier brains into entertainment mode and lose the real message that needs to be spread.

I mean really, who on this planet thinks we are going to run out of oil anytime soon???

We will pay too much and there won't be enough to go around, but its doubtful we run out for quite some time.
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Re: BBC Radio 4 series - Driven By Oil

Unread postby Free » Thu 31 Aug 2006, 08:33:56

I am honestly not concerned about a panic.

People won't panic because they don't want to panic, and since PO for the most part of it isn't something which is as apparent as let's say a fire in a theatre, and since we have enough indication that Joe Sixpack doesn't get it even if you hit him on the forehead with the facts...

People will be pissed about higher energy prices, there will be a lot of scapegoating and demands for action, but panic, I don't think so...
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Re: BBC Radio 4 series - Driven By Oil

Unread postby rogerhb » Thu 31 Aug 2006, 17:05:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Free', 'P')eople will be pissed about higher energy prices, there will be a lot of scapegoating and demands for action, but panic, I don't think so...


I know it was not cause by PO but would "New Orleans" count as panic? If so you have the capability....
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Re: BBC Radio 4 series - Driven By Oil

Unread postby Gazzatrone » Mon 04 Sep 2006, 06:04:20

Before I continue here is the widely acepted definition of PANIC

pan·ic Pronunciation (pnk)
n.
1. A sudden, overpowering terror, often affecting many people at once. See Synonyms at fear.
2. A sudden widespread alarm concerning finances, often resulting in a rush to sell property: a stock-market panic.
3. Slang One that is uproariously funny.
adj.
1. Of, relating to, or resulting from sudden, overwhelming terror: panic flight.
2. Of or resulting from a financial panic: panic selling of securities.
3. often Panic Mythology Of or relating to Pan.
tr. & intr.v. pan·icked, pan·ick·ing, pan·ics
To affect or be affected with panic. See Synonyms at frighten.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Free', 'I') am honestly not concerned about a panic.


Until it happens obviously.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Free', 'P')eople won't panic because they don't want to panic,


Of course they won't panic. They will rationally consider the fact that their way of life has gone for ever and quickly settle down into an Agrarian Utopia without blaming Goverment (and we all know what that entails), for the situation they now find themselves in.

I'm sorry but who are you trying to kid here. I've seen panic in Britain before when refineries were blockaded and Supermarket shelves were stripped of basic foods, because people followed your presumed model of rationally considering their situation and didn't panic.

I actually find it very amusing that you believe that people can decide whether to panic or not.

Do you think it will go something like this?

Suburban Husband (reading newspaper) - " Look dear it says the World has one day of oil left"

Suburban Wife - "Oh that's terrible. What do you think should be done about that"

Suburban Husband - "Well I for one was considering some panicking this afternoon at about 2 O'clock."

Suburban Wife - "What a good idea, although I have to stop at 3 to be back for when the kids finish school"

Suburban Husband - "Well why don't we put it off until the day after the oil runs out, when we'll all have something to panic about."

Suburban Wife - "Panic! Whose's panicking?"

Suburban Husband - "Not me dear! We still have One day left of oil, and scientists and oilmen say that oil will last for another 30 years. Amazing!"

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Free', 'a')nd since PO for the most part of it isn't something which is as apparent as let's say a fire in a theatre,


Considering we get 99.9% of our information from mass media, you would think that this vital information would be broadcast to the masses, frequently enough so that everyone would be prepared for future events.

But nooooooo. PO is still restricted to broadsheet newspapers, high brow radio stations and fringe 1 hour doomer specials, in the style of tabloid journalism which inflates the whacko doomerism and becomes subject to "can't happen to me" outlook.

Thus, PO doesn't become as obvious as simply the "Oil Running Out" headline. PO is a mechanism made from many other already complex mechanisms, social, geo-political, geological, thermodynamics to name but a few.

The "Fire in the Theatre" is an obvious threat because everyone stupid or clever can see it. PO will fool everyone even those that study it, because as sure as the sky is blue, if you've been focusing on one mechanism of PO and your data informs you that this is the case, another aspect will come up behind and rear end you to prove you wrong.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Free', 'a')nd since we have enough indication that Joe Sixpack doesn't get it even if you hit him on the forehead with the facts...


Nice and patronising, just like the whole of your post. Making sweeping comments with no basis in fact, generalising using stereotypes.

I believe that there is about 3 senators who are warning the REST of the US Senate about PO, but seem to be falling on deaf ears. There are many people WITHIN the Oil industry refuting the existence of PO. There are many SCIENTISTS who try and explain why we are not running out of oil, with some claiming the Earth is MAKING oil all the time.

Now which of those groups could be labelled as Joe Sixpacks. None of these will be ready for PO when it comes. In fact they will be in the worst hit group because these are the people believing it won't happen at all. And more dangerously, they are the ones spreading misinformation to people like Joe Sixpack, with the message -

"Why worry, your life's fine now isn't it? Don't listen to these people that are telling you anything different"

And when this turns out to be wrong, THAT'S when Joe Sixpack will not only panic, but get angry. Very angry. Because he'll realise he's been sold a lie.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Free', 'P')eople will be pissed about higher energy prices, there will be a lot of scapegoating and demands for action, but panic, I don't think so...


I so hope you are being sarcastic.
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Re: BBC Radio 4 series - Driven By Oil

Unread postby Starvid » Mon 04 Sep 2006, 10:57:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Has oil production finally peaked?
Are we ready for Peak Oil?

With the demand for energy around the world ever increasing, are we edging closer to "peak oil" - and what can be done about it?

Stephen Leeb, founder of Leeb Capital Management Group and a long-time analyst on Wall Street, thinks so.

"We have a president that says we're addicted to oil, but doesn't say that we don't have enough oil to satisfy our addiction," he says. "He really hasn't alerted us to the fact that it's a true crisis."

The crisis anticipated by these so-called petro-pessimists is one in which the world returns to the dark ages. At its most gloomy, the picture is one of civil unrest, world wars, and people dying of hypothermia in winter.

But then there are the oil-optimists - who believe we are entering the golden age of oil when higher prices and new innovations will see breakthroughs in recovery and discovery of oil.


http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/5305950.stm

And yes, that's the BBC.
Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
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Re: BBC Radio 4 series - Driven By Oil

Unread postby snowhope » Mon 04 Sep 2006, 15:59:34

Gazzatrone, what a brilliant post! Very cynical - loved it.
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Re: BBC Radio 4 series - Driven By Oil

Unread postby Gazzatrone » Mon 04 Sep 2006, 21:58:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('snowhope', 'G')azzatrone, what a brilliant post! Very cynical - loved it.


Well thank you Snowhope.

Mabe I should post more often before I've had my morning cup of tea, if this is how warmly my posts are welcomed.

:-D
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Re: BBC Radio 4 series - Driven By Oil

Unread postby Gil-Galad » Tue 05 Sep 2006, 03:40:40

I listened to this programme and thought it was very well presented.

The sort of people who listen to Radio 4 are the sort of people who are aware of the world's problems. The head in the sands will be listening to rock music without worrying too much about news.

It was very worrying about the divergence of views amoungst the various experts interviewed. Some believed that the problem will start about 2008 others say there is 30 years of oil left.

It is very strange so little seems to be known about something so important to the world in the 21st century.
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Re: BBC Radio 4 series - Driven By Oil

Unread postby FishAreBest » Tue 05 Sep 2006, 06:58:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gil-Galad', 'I')t was very worrying about the divergence of views amoungst the various experts interviewed. Some believed that the problem will start about 2008 others say there is 30 years of oil left.


It is BBC policy to show the two (and only two) sides of every argument. Even when one is clearly nonsense.

The program didn't really cover anything that we don't already know.

I don't know about "panic", but I've already passed through panic, acceptance, and am now in dispair ;-)
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Re: BBC Radio 4 series - Driven By Oil

Unread postby Gazzatrone » Tue 05 Sep 2006, 10:25:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FishAreBest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gil-Galad', 'I')t was very worrying about the divergence of views amoungst the various experts interviewed. Some believed that the problem will start about 2008 others say there is 30 years of oil left.


It is BBC policy to show the two (and only two) sides of every argument. Even when one is clearly nonsense.

The program didn't really cover anything that we don't already know.

I don't know about "panic", but I've already passed through panic, acceptance, and am now in dispair ;-)


Next comes apothy and cynicism as you realise noone really gives a flying F*@k and your concerns are scoffed at, laughed at or just plain ignored.
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Re: BBC Radio 4 series - Driven By Oil

Unread postby Free » Wed 06 Sep 2006, 16:03:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gazzatrone', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Free', 'I') am honestly not concerned about a panic.


Until it happens obviously.



$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Shakespeare', '
')Cowards die many times before their deaths;
The valiant never taste of death but once.


If you define panic we also have to define who panics and about what. All I wanted to say that the people most of us will have as their neighbours (Joe Sixpack, middle class, call them however you want them to call) won't panic specifically about PO.

They won't wake up screaming one day to the headline "PO is here!" and say "Campbell was always right! Get me my shotgun and lets loot the super market!"

Obviously we have two very different images about the future. I think PO theory will never become mainstream because first it demands to understand concepts that the majority will never bother to understand.

This is not patronizing nor arrogant nor has it to do something with intelligence. I guess most of us have stories here talking to very intelligent people who "don't get PO".

Secondly, PO is not an event, IMHO. It will be a bumpy, chaotic decline, a process, not a cataclysmic day in history. Think Soviet Union rather than Armageddon.
Ultimately PO is not even about hydrocarbon resources of course, but about limits of growth and a growth addicted economy, but you all know that.

So yes there might be punctual panics about stock market crashes, oil shortages, etc. etc. who all have PO as a reason in the background, but the mainstream public opinion will never acknowledge that, and think "our life will never be like it was before, aaaaaaahhhhh!".

And there will always be the silver lining at the horizon, the wonder technology etc. etc., that's what I mean with "people don't want to panic". Joe Sixpack will never realize he has been sold a lie, that's exactly my point.
He will want to continue to live in that lie at all cost, and attack fervently whatever seems to threaten that lie.

It's just my opinion, based on anecdotal evidence, following the news about PO related topics for over 3 years now. Sure its subjective, it's biased. It's not science. Just my 2 cents.
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