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Why the gas price will equal the price for ethanol

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Why the gas price will equal the price for ethanol

Postby matt21811 » Sat 12 Aug 2006, 16:12:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'm')att, who is building those nuke plants? Where are they being built? Who is investing in them?

To the best of my knowledge there is not a single new nuke plant currently under construction in the US. Not one. When will they be built?


http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/reactors.htm

USA - 1 under construction.

13 proposed.

Does this change your doomerish thinking?
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Re: Why the gas price will equal the price for ethanol

Postby MonteQuest » Sat 12 Aug 2006, 16:26:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('matt21811', 'O')K. CTL for 30 years, with say, 2 decades to replace coal electricity with nuclear. Biofuel will do its part to stretch is all out a few years. Dots connected, with everything still running very normal way past the date when I'm dead.


You need to review this:

http://www.globalpublicmedia.com/lectures/461

If the current trend of oil decline continues at 8%, 50 % of oil production will be lost in less than 9 years.

You are dying that soon?

GTL loses 40% of it's energy as CO2. How are you going to sequester all that coal carbon? At what cost?

Ignore global warming?

Coal and electricty are still not liquid fuels and ethanol providing 4.7% of our fuel in 2012 is hardly enough.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')'d also like to point out that US domestic production is fairly meaningless by itself. I think you can rest assured that the US will import biofuel if it is cheaper and poor countries will be very happy to have the chance to sell it. Global figures are more usefull.


Yep, they are:

http://www.earth-policy.org/Updates/200 ... 9_data.htm

US domestic production was 38% of world capacity in 2004, and has increased since then. Hardy meaningless.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') presume you are questioning the IEA 2025 figure. I don't really care when peak oil occurs. I'm thinking the IEA have a bit of an idea of what they're doing.


You don't? It doesn't matter when oil peaks? Hmmm...

And no, I am not questioning the peak date, but the 1% projection for wind/solar by 2025.

How far off can that be?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')ow I think about it, you might have been asking about the wind figure. I'm fine with that figure too.


Then how can they be a factor if they only contribute 1%?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')The law of diminishing returns argues otherwise. Most of the big efficiency gains were made in the 1970's and 80's.


I doubt it. Especially considering how low the price of energy went in the interim. I dont think we even tried and the figured doubled. With high oil prices just hitting, I think we'll be seeing some effort and big returns.


You doubt the law of diminishing returns? The data is there, google it. Most of the big gains came from industry.
Last edited by MonteQuest on Sat 12 Aug 2006, 17:21:27, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Why the gas price will equal the price for ethanol

Postby mrobert » Sat 12 Aug 2006, 16:35:32

This is a great time to invent some cheap way of getting liquid fuel ...
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Re: Why the gas price will equal the price for ethanol

Postby MonteQuest » Sat 12 Aug 2006, 17:14:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('matt21811', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')
Popular Mechanics ran the numbers using galsoine and E85 from NY to LA.

33 mpg gas 17 mpg E85, $212.00 versus $425.00

Ethanol and gas equal in price?

Never.


You keep using this example and it bugs me.

The Popular Mechanics article used two difference cars, the ethanol car was much heavier. The ethanol car was also not designed for ethanol, instead it was a pertol car that could also burn ethanol. As far as good science goes, it wasn't.


But we don't have a fleet of those cars yet, and none forthcoming anytime soon. It was good science applied to what we have to work with.

The Honda Civic weighed 2,877 and the Ford Taurus FFV (Flexible fuel vehicle designed to run E85 as well) weighed 3,333 that's 456 more.

The rule is that you pay about 3 to 6 cents per gallon for each 100 pounds of weight you have in the car.

Using a nickel/gal that's $22.80 more. Hardy closes the gap between $212.00 and $425.00.

The July 2006 issue of Car and Driver has an Ethanol article. They pretty much corroborate what I have written and end the article saying the best we can hope for is that 10% of our needs could be met with E85.

They conducted a MPG test using a new Chevolet Tahoe with a 5.3 Litre V8 . We can read all kinds of facts, but C&D put the rubber to the road.

The numbers crunch:

Constant 30MPH
Gas- 25.7MPG
E85-17.4MPG

Constant 50MPH
Gas-22.9MPG
E85-15.8MPG

Constant 70MPH
Gas-16.0MPG
E85-11.4MPG

31% less mpg using E85 on average. Also was mentioned that a tank of E85 would take you 290miles while gas would take you 390miles. Performance was almost identical between the two fuels.
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Re: Why the gas price will equal the price for ethanol

Postby MonteQuest » Sat 12 Aug 2006, 17:18:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('matt21811', 'U')SA - 1 under construction.

13 proposed.

Does this change your doomerish thinking?


And 0 planned or on order of this 13 proposed.

It should change your thinking about this, not ours.
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Re: Why the gas price will equal the price for ethanol

Postby mrobert » Sat 12 Aug 2006, 17:23:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'T')hey conducted a MPG test using a new Chevolet Tahoe with a 5.3 Litre V8 .


For God's sake, somebody tell me why they need to put a 5.3 Litre engine in a car? Performance? Please don't tell me that ...
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Re: Why the gas price will equal the price for ethanol

Postby MonteQuest » Sat 12 Aug 2006, 17:30:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mrobert', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'T')hey conducted a MPG test using a new Chevolet Tahoe with a 5.3 Litre V8 .


For God's sake, somebody tell me why they need to put a 5.3 Litre engine in a car? Performance? Please don't tell me that ...


That's what we have to work with, like I was telling matt. If we were designing cars to run on moonshine 20 years ago, we might have had a chance.
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