[Bas]

A scenario

Here we are, waiting for the PO shock that no doubt will come. When it comes there'll be a serious worldwide economic crisis that will last for years. When it comes there will the marketforces will dictate the further development of biodiesel and ethanol. When it comes there will be political pressure and will to develop these alternatives further.

As a result, we will see more and more gasstations supplying these alternatives, at first at a high price, which will bring enormous profits to the suppliers of it, later when the production and competition have really taken off, the price will drop. It will cause more and more people to use these alternatives instead of regular gas, causing the gasprice to drop. That's why in the medium and long term, gasprices (corrected for mpg) will always be on par with the price for it's alternatives; They are almost full substitutes of eachother.

Also when the market for biofuels grows bigger, economics of scale will come into play further reducing the costprice of them. At the same time foodprices will become more dependent on the price of biofuels, as they share their main capital; Land (however, it is possible to grow biofuelcrops on more poor quality land, which where, no doubt is where it's going to happen). This however is good news for the poor agricultural countries of the world; The price of their main source of income will go up, putting the citizens of the world on a more economically equal footing.

Conclusions: In the medium to long run gasprices and the price for biofuels will be roughly on par with eachother. Besides that PO might be more of a blessing to poor countries than a curse in the same timeframe.

Bas

[Bas]

For the same reasons land will be a good investment now or more so during "the crisis"...

[mrobert]

Hi,

Did anyone actually made some math, about exactly how much land is needed in order to grow enough crop to cover global demand for biofuels?

And keep in mind that agriculture is a seasonal thing. You can't grow stuff in the winter.

[Bas]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mrobert', 'H')i,

Did anyone actually made some math, about exactly how much land is needed in order to grow enough crop to cover global demand for biofuels?

And keep in mind that agriculture is a seasonal thing. You can't grow stuff in the winter.

[mrobert]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bas', 'I') think most of it is guess work.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mrobert', 'H')i,

Did anyone actually made some math, about exactly how much land is needed in order to grow enough crop to cover global demand for biofuels?

And keep in mind that agriculture is a seasonal thing. You can't grow stuff in the winter.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bas', ' ')Conclusions: In the medium to long run gasprices and the price for biofuels will be roughly on par with eachother. Besides that PO might be more of a blessing to poor countries than a curse in the same timeframe.

Bas

[IslandCrow]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bas', '[')b]A scenario

....

Conclusions: In the medium to long run gasprices and the price for biofuels will be roughly on par with eachother.

Bas

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('IslandCrow', ' ')So one can say that "the price for ethanol will equal the gas price"

[Bas]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bas', ' ')Conclusions: In the medium to long run gasprices and the price for biofuels will be roughly on par with eachother. Besides that PO might be more of a blessing to poor countries than a curse in the same timeframe.

Bas

[Bas]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mrobert', 'H')i,

Did anyone actually made some math, about exactly how much land is needed in order to grow enough crop to cover global demand for biofuels?

And keep in mind that agriculture is a seasonal thing. You can't grow stuff in the winter.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bas', ' ') So this is just guess work still.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bas', ' ')You wouldn't have to subsidize ethanol if you didn't have importduties on Brazilian or Caribbean sugar...

[Bas]

here's the article:

http://yaleglobal.yale.edu/display.article?id=6817

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'R')IO DE JANEIRO, Brazil -- After nearly three decades of work, Brazil has succeeded where much of the industrialized world has failed: It has developed a cost-effective alternative to gasoline. Along with new offshore oil discoveries, that's a big reason Brazil expects to become energy independent this year.

[Bas]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bas', ' ')You wouldn't have to subsidize ethanol if you didn't have importduties on Brazilian or Caribbean sugar...

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bas', ' ')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Montequest', ' ')How many orders of magnitude is 400 times off?

[Bas]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bas', ' ')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Montequest', ' ')How many orders of magnitude is 400 times off?

[MrBill]

Corn to ethanol via gasoline based on 500 gallons per acre is not cost effective. As is soyabean to bio-diesel using existing farming methods that are reliant on burning fossil fuels.

However, cellulosic ethanol, perhaps grown on marginal farmland and tapping currently non-arable lands, like Boreal forests of poplar trees (currently not considered commercial species, but fast growing) or switchgrass grown in areas that are dryer, prone to erosion or where there is soil salinity may hold more promise to increase the total acreage, and therefore the total ethanol yield perhaps using coal to liquids instead of petroleum.

Better yields using new enzymes and better technology might push existing yields from 500 gallons to 3000 gallons per acre. It is still very early days in terms of experimenting with this technology.

Pharmaceutical grade glycerin, animal feed and other byproducts from bio-diesel and ethanol will also cut the cost of production and therefore the size of the subsidy needed to produce them. ADM and Cargill already have 30-40 million gallon ethanol and bio-diesel plants under construction. Once built they will look to lower their costs of production, with or without additional subsidies. Lower costs of production equal wider margins.

None of which reduces the need to reduce the consumption of existing fossil fuels. But if the alternative is horses & buggies, ethanol and bio-diesel will price themselves into the matrix once petroleum is gone or too expensive.

[matt21811]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mrobert', 'H')i,

Did anyone actually made some math, about exactly how much land is needed in order to grow enough crop to cover global demand for biofuels?

And keep in mind that agriculture is a seasonal thing. You can't grow stuff in the winter.

[mrobert]

It doesn't matter if we need 134 or 269 or 412 time more land ... we need more, which we don't have ... so we are screwed