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Back to the city

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Back to the city

Postby thuja » Thu 10 Aug 2006, 14:31:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rwwff', '
')I'm having a hard time thinking of anything I *need* that isn't made locally; however, if there is in fact something that I just am to stupid to know about, the "big city" is just a two-three day bicycle ride away.

Lots of luxuries that I'd miss, certainly.


MM okay- so you can grow and process all of your own food..you don't need gasoline or diesel for any vehicles/farm equipment, you don't need propane, batteries, you can make all your own clothes and you won't need medical attention. Oh but if you need any of that stuff- you can just bike for a few days. Ok.
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Re: Back to the city

Postby rwwff » Thu 10 Aug 2006, 14:43:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rwwff', 'I')'m having a hard time thinking of anything I *need* that isn't made locally; however, if there is in fact something that I just am to stupid to know about, the "big city" is just a two-three day bicycle ride away.
Lots of luxuries that I'd miss, certainly.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', 's')o you can grow and process all of your own food.

In fact, I can. Trading locally for more variety is more likely, but it is not essential.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'y')ou don't need gasoline or diesel for any vehicles/farm equipment

No, I don't. Thats luxury.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'y')ou don't need propane, batteries,

Luxuries. Nice luxuries, but luxuries none the less. People survived before propane and batteries, they'll survive after propane and batteries.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'y')ou can make all your own clothes

No, but I know local people that can. That said, what I currently own is more than enough to last several lifetimes.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'y')ou won't need medical attention.

Marry a surgeon; you'd be surprised what those folks can do with a pair of scissors, a sharp knife, and a bit of jury-riggin.

Why is it so hard to find something that one would actually need to go into a city to get? Could it be, that there is nothing in the city that is a necessity for life?
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Re: Back to the city

Postby Dreamtwister » Thu 10 Aug 2006, 14:57:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rwwff', '
')I'm having a hard time thinking of anything I *need* that isn't made locally; however, if there is in fact something that I just am to stupid to know about, the "big city" is just a two-three day bicycle ride away.

Lots of luxuries that I'd miss, certainly.


MM okay- so you can grow and process all of your own food..you don't need gasoline or diesel for any vehicles/farm equipment, you don't need propane, batteries, you can make all your own clothes and you won't need medical attention. Oh but if you need any of that stuff- you can just bike for a few days. Ok.


Actually, I agree with rwwff here. It's not that hard to make your homestead self sufficient, and all of the stuff you have listed here is in fact unnecessary. The exception would be medical attention, but I suspect that post-peak, we will see a return of the "town doctor". Remember, he's not talking about total isolation, he's talking about sustainable community. That's completely different, and probably the ideal situation.

I'm not sure I agree with his choice of living at a railhead, or within a 3-day bike ride of a city, but everything else is right on target.
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Re: Back to the city

Postby rwwff » Thu 10 Aug 2006, 15:08:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dreamtwister', 'I')'m not sure I agree with his choice of living at a railhead, or within a 3-day bike ride of a city, but everything else is right on target.


Not at the railhead. A few miles away.

Point of info, a 3 day bike ride is 250 miles. There aren't a lot of agriculturally productive places that are more than 250 miles away from a city.
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Re: Back to the city

Postby Dreamtwister » Thu 10 Aug 2006, 15:26:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rwwff', 'P')oint of info, a 3 day bike ride is 250 miles. There aren't a lot of agriculturally productive places that are more than 250 miles away from a city.


Maybe not in Texas...lol
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Re: Back to the city

Postby thuja » Thu 10 Aug 2006, 16:50:15

Rwwff

If you have the ability to be 100 % self-sufficient out in East Jesus with no power tools, machinery and vehicle than all power to you. To accomplish this task, one would need to have enough arable acreage that is easily tilled by farm animals, a well insulated home with a woodstove, a good source of wood and an axe (remember no chainsaw), and I hope you have many back up parts for that bike. You will need to be able to grow, mill, process all your food, fix all your tools, repair your house using only the land around you and make and mend all your clothes. Also, I hope you have paid off the mortgage on the land and can figure out a way to pey for property taxes because you won't be commuting to a paying job.

Even if all this was possible, it would be exceedingly difficult for most modern people. If you can do it, all power to you!

There was a movement of several million folks back in the 60's who believed they could accomplish this. Almost none of them succeeded. Trying to go it alone with a completely off-the-grid farming homestead is not only exceedingly difficult, it should be actively discouraged as young naive people will think they can easily do this.

So Rwwff- good luck and all power to you if you have solved all of these problems and are ready for complete off-the-grid self-sufficiency. Just don't tell people its the simplest or best way to go.
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Re: Back to the city

Postby rwwff » Thu 10 Aug 2006, 17:49:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', 'I')f you have the ability to be 100 % self-sufficient out in East Jesus with no power tools, machinery and vehicle than all power to you. To accomplish this task, one would need to have enough arable acreage that is easily tilled by farm animals, a well insulated home with a woodstove, a good source of wood and an axe (remember no chainsaw), and I hope you have many back up parts for that bike. You will need to be able to grow, mill, process all your food, fix all your tools, repair your house using only the land around you and make and mend all your clothes. Also, I hope you have paid off the mortgage on the land and can figure out a way to pay for property taxes because you won't be commuting to a paying job.


Tillability... Ludi and others keep trying to convince me its not necessary, and over the next few years, I hope to prove it out, one way or another... But yeah, the ground in East Texas is uniformly tillable by farm animals, at least once you bust out the roots from any nearby trees. Axe and trenching tool will win that battle for you.

Woodstove... That would make the house hotter!! What I do want to build outside, is one of those large woodfired brick ovens; they are just way cool.

My axe is sharp and rust free, and has felled its share of trees. I will however, use the tiger saw and chain saw for as long as possible, they're easier on the shoulder.

As noted before, clothes, I'll die of old age long before I run out.

Property taxes are really my only remaining long term concern.

I don't know what the point of insulation is. It doesn't get cold enough here to be interesting. About the worst I might expect is to sleep with a second blanket about 4 nights a year; with the windows open. Its actually a very nice "vacation" frorm the heat when a cold front does manage to make it down here; being a weather weanie, I always know the time they are going to pass through, and I'll go outside to luxuriate in the temperature drop.

The bike is sorta a luxury; and I am considering purchasing a solid, steel tourer like the Fuji, or an older Trek 520; and getting a few sets of extra spares, chains, skewers, hubs, cassettes, tires and tubes. I'd still probably baby the thing though if it came down to such a pitiful economic state.

I haven't commuted to a job in over ten years; so I don't see why I would start now.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')rying to go it alone with a completely off-the-grid farming homestead is not only exceedingly difficult, it should be actively discouraged as young naive people will think they can easily do this.


Going it alone is stupid. You've got to go with the economy as it is, at present. The economy right now will NOT support a small farm; so you have to protect that land with other income and avoid trying to fit the square peg in the round hole. Get it debt free, keep the taxes paid, preposition assets and capabilities, work within your family and local community. Keep your skills sharp.

As the economy changes with rapidly rising energy prices, depression, whatever, then you can adjust as appropriate. If nothing interesting at all happens, you've got a great place to retire and enjoy the stary skies, and your kid(s) can then enjoy the same sort of safe backstop as you and those that came before.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'J')ust don't tell people its the simplest or best way to go.
I don't recall making any such claim. It is, however, best for me.
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Re: Back to the city

Postby Zardoz » Thu 10 Aug 2006, 17:58:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rwwff', '.')..no suggestion of what is in the big city that I would need...

Emergency medical care comes to mind. After that, continuing med care. Prescriptions. Dentistry.

Are you confident that all the above will be available to you locally, post-Peak? Any chance that the medical/dental professions might leave the sparsely-populated areas pretty much completely, and go where the population is?
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Re: Back to the city

Postby azreal60 » Thu 10 Aug 2006, 18:04:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'J')ust don't tell people its the simplest or best way to go.

I don't recall making any such claim. It is, however, best for me.


That I can agree with. It's not for everyone. I think alot of people are just made to be city dwellers. It's how their personalitys are.

I can also agree with the fact that living Near a railhead is a very good idea. If peak oil plays out the way the majority think, rail will see a revival, and will be a source of goods that you can't get elsewhere. If they can ship it to a city, they can ship it to a railhead. And guess what, cities move. If a railhead is near enough people, a city will spring up around it to offer services to the people coming to get those goods. How do you folks think america got built? Yes the last 50 years was stupid planning, but there is a heck of alot more time beyond that where cities got put in a place because that's where the rail met it.
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Re: Back to the city

Postby Pops » Thu 10 Aug 2006, 18:12:16

One of the problems with these types of discussions is not delineating a time frame. Thuja has pointed out, rightly so I think, that medium term – 10-20 years in my book, there are obvious problems with a rural situation due to expense/income circumstances.

You point out the same in this quote rw,
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rwwff', 'T')he economy right now will NOT support a small farm; so you have to protect that land with other income and avoid trying to fit the square peg in the round hole.


But the discussion has ranged from mule carts to zero shipping to rural locations to no energy or food of any kind to support cities.

Perhaps the original poster or someone else could attempt to limit the topic in regards to a particular time frame?
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Re: Back to the city

Postby rwwff » Thu 10 Aug 2006, 18:16:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rwwff', '.')..no suggestion of what is in the big city that I would need...

Emergency medical care comes to mind. After that, continuing med care. Prescriptions. Dentistry.
Are you confident that all the above will be available to you locally, post-Peak?

I am confident that I have no desire to be kept alive past the point of onset from the two competing reapers who desire my flesh. I'd appreciate some morphine, if any is available, but if not, hopefully and most likley a bottle of scotch will finish me, before I finish it.

I am also confident that I have the debrieding, stitching, bone setting, and teeth removal problems under control. (no, not self-treatment, sheesh)

I take no prescription medications, though I do permit myself the luxury of a cheap loratidine tab daily; but it is just a luxury. Spring will be much less fun without it, but its not the end of the world.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')ny chance that the medical/dental professions might leave the sparsely-populated areas pretty much completely, and go where the population is?


I suspect doctors will move to locations where they believe their families will be safest. I don't think you are going to like where they go. ie, where the gang bangers, and crack dealers are not.
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Re: Back to the city

Postby rwwff » Thu 10 Aug 2006, 19:00:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'O')ne of the problems with these types of discussions is not delineating a time frame.

The originator of the thread was talking about a current activity, where some peakers propose escape to East Jesus now, while the actual movement of people seems to be inwards towards the city core.

No particular question was asked, but it was just placed up for consideration.

My thoughts on the immediate term are to limit expense, stay where you are, and pay down mortgage and other secured loans as fast as reasonably possible. As I've noted in comments about commute costs, I suspect the exurbs will be holdable all the way to $20 per gallon gasoline; though they will certainly be less comfortable.

Longer term, say 20 years out, and fully into the time of the Eternal Depression (* world according to rwwff), I suspect this ring zone of ex/suburbia may die as far as human habitation. The trick, in my view, for the rural landholder, is to work the "city" jobs for as long as they pay, and sink that money into the land or in the form of a quasi-endowment. There may even be a point in there where some of your rural neighbors want to cash in and retire to Aruba (no kids, hate the kids, whatever), if the funds are available, you could pick up another parcel or few; but its a balancing act between asset value, taxes, and any income they might produce from leased grazing or whatever.

At some point however, the pay for the "city" jobs will fall below what your property is able to generate with hands on labor input. At that point, it is time to bail on the city.

My great grandfather worked the land to see his kids survive through the great depression. My grandparents worked blue collar jobs to get their kids into and through college, my parents worked professional jobs to get us through college and into urban single family homes early, we work (I suspect) to reclaim the land from disuse, so that our children may sustainably work the land.....

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')erhaps the original poster or someone else could attempt to limit the topic in regards to a particular time frame?


If we limit to immediate time frame the answer is controlled by the economy. If you don't have 500+ acres; its a no go. An external source of income is required in order to live and pay your taxes.

The question then becomes, do you live on the rural land and try to find jobs to fulfill that need, or do you live sub/exurban and commute (or telecommute), or do you live in the city core, ditch the car, and depend on transit, bicycle, and taxi?

If you are a city person, and don't want to support a piece of rural land in its unproductive state; then what jobs and living conditions should you look for. My bet there is to rent and save until a collapse in housing prices creates an opportunity with real value.
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Re: Back to the city

Postby thuja » Thu 10 Aug 2006, 20:58:20

Ok rwwff- we're pretty much on the same page. In the near short term, its smartest to maximize preparation in the form of reducing debt, accumulating wealth and purchase necessary items for a long decline. In the longer term, we may see a wholesale return to an agrarian economy. To prepare for this time it would be great to own land that one can develop in the short term and then maximize as we shift away from an industrialized energy intensive world.

Even in an agrarian and light industrial future, cities will have a place as hiubs for the transfer of goods. There will still be shipping and ports will do well in that regard. Cities will maximize the last droplets of petroelum based energy well into this century. There will be massive poverty, hunger and crime, but rural areas will experience declining government funds for infrastructure.

As "easy" petroleum based energy declines, physical labor will become increasingly necessary and most of us will be required to work in the fields, the mines, in the local factories and at the docks and train stations: loading, picking, tilling, sewing, shearing, smithing and mending.

The work many of us have now, is trying to avoid being a slave in exchange for food and housing in the not too distant future. By owning land, we can imagine a life where we are our own bosses and create our own life, even if it is just as hard as the dockworkers who work for scraps of bread. I have no problem with that concept and applaud that vision.

Now that you've eplained that its part of a long term transitional plan, I'm all for it. Its the "Lets-get-in-the-car-and-move-to-East-Jesus-right-Now" scenario that bothers me.
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Re: Back to the city

Postby threadbear » Thu 10 Aug 2006, 21:03:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('azreal60', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'J')ust don't tell people its the simplest or best way to go.

I don't recall making any such claim. It is, however, best for me.


.

If they can ship it to a city, they can ship it to a railhead. And guess what, cities move. If a railhead is near enough people, a city will spring up around it to offer services to the people coming to get those goods. How do you folks think america got built? Yes the last 50 years was stupid planning, but there is a heck of alot more time beyond that where cities got put in a place because that's where the rail met it.


Yeppers! Bingo....ding ding ding. Rail is going to see a huge revival, and won't it be lovely to have nothing but microcars on the highway and everything else shipped by rail!?
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Re: Back to the city

Postby MrBill » Fri 11 Aug 2006, 14:45:38

What is most overlook is that what is good for 'one' individual is not 'scalable' for the majority.

For example, one can be over optimistic about 'our' ability to solve our problems with technology, and then err on the side of 'over optimism' when it comes to being self-sufficient. Yes, I have been reading Mother Earth and Harrowshith since the 1970's and come from a farm so I know what I am talking about.

We do not even have enough cows, draught horses and oxen to plow the land, nevermind the harnesses and buggies as well as plows. Where will they come from? Who will repair the antiques?

On my farm, I know who. My step brothers who are welders and mechanics and we already own these older pieces of farm implements.

Tell me how the arse from the city is going to come out with his "live betwen two valley's and not let his neighbors know where he lives" is going to replicate my extended family's know how and infrastructure that is already in place?

Peak oil is a serious problem and some of you dream of being Huck Finn! Do not get me wrong, the more time you spend talking nonsense, the better it is for me, but being a hunter and having guns of my own, I am under no illusions I can fend off mobs or survive, nevermind thrive, if no one else in 'my community' is getting by.

But it is amusing to read your fantasies. It reminds me of when I was a young boy and I wanted to be a bush pilot in nortern Canada. In the meantime, I grew up, but it is always fun to dream.
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Re: Back to the city

Postby rwwff » Fri 11 Aug 2006, 15:47:19

Since your message is untargetted, I'll have to assume I'm included in your pack with "fantasies"...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'e')rr on the side of 'over optimism' when it comes to being self-sufficient.

I am not self sufficient; no one is. Thats why we have commerce and trade.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')e do not even have enough cows, draught horses and oxen to plow the land, nevermind the harnesses and buggies as well as plows. Where will they come from? Who will repair the antiques?

I want to try Ludi's suggestions first before picking up the hardware,.

If the permaculture/no plow thing can't work, scaled up, then there is a decision to be made, and some hardware to be purchased; no sense purchasing now though. Can you even get a quality, new-made, horse drawn plow right now? I know you can buy old, rusted antiques, but I can't say I'm too enthused at the prospect of putting them under a real load.

I don't really want anything to do with cows or oxen though; and its to soon to pay for a horse, who'll just end up being a lazy bum eating my grass and do nothing for the priveledge. I do know where *my* mule is coming from though, and even know who'll be doing the horse maintenance stuff for me.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')ell me how the arse from the city is going to come out with his "live betwen two valley's and not let his neighbors know where he lives" is going to replicate my extended family's know how and infrastructure that is already in place?


No one can replicate the extended family thing. Its why I'm pretty hesitant about buying other property in places where people don't know me. If a neighbor wants to bail, thats one thing; but just selecting some place to buy for a future retreat doesn't seem like a very good idea. Even crazy neighbors that know you are better than suspicious strangers who might suspect you of stealing chickens or something.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')eak oil is a serious problem and some of you dream of being Huck Finn!

No intention of being Huck Finn, I intend to do what my great grandfather did, pretty much in the same place he did it; though there has been a bit of shuffling of the parcels since then... Just makes the history more interesting though.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ').. am under no illusions I can fend off mobs or survive, nevermind thrive, if no one else in 'my community' is getting by.
I think we'll mostly be getting by, except perhaps the crazies and drunks. Even then, they're likely related and even if you end up having to buy their land from under them, at least then you can keep them in a job of some sort, a trailer near the road, with enough money for cheap booze. [or make your own white lightning for the guy.]
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Re: Back to the city

Postby Zardoz » Fri 11 Aug 2006, 18:30:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rwwff', '.')..No intention of being Huck Finn, I intend to do what my great grandfather did, pretty much in the same place he did it...

If push comes to shove, and things fall apart as they very well could, then good luck to you. None of us have any idea of how all this will end up, but it sounds like the plans and preps you're making are as good as any could be, really. You're fortunate to be in a position to at least try to carry them out.

Few of us will be in that position, and fewer still would be able to do anything with the opportunity even if we had it.
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Re: Back to the city

Postby MrBill » Sat 12 Aug 2006, 03:44:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rwwff', 'S')ince your message is untargetted, I'll have to assume I'm included in your pack with "fantasies"...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'e')rr on the side of 'over optimism' when it comes to being self-sufficient.

I am not self sufficient; no one is. Thats why we have commerce and trade.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')e do not even have enough cows, draught horses and oxen to plow the land, nevermind the harnesses and buggies as well as plows. Where will they come from? Who will repair the antiques?

I want to try Ludi's suggestions first before picking up the hardware,.

If the permaculture/no plow thing can't work, scaled up, then there is a decision to be made, and some hardware to be purchased; no sense purchasing now though. Can you even get a quality, new-made, horse drawn plow right now? I know you can buy old, rusted antiques, but I can't say I'm too enthused at the prospect of putting them under a real load.

I don't really want anything to do with cows or oxen though; and its to soon to pay for a horse, who'll just end up being a lazy bum eating my grass and do nothing for the priveledge. I do know where *my* mule is coming from though, and even know who'll be doing the horse maintenance stuff for me.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')ell me how the arse from the city is going to come out with his "live betwen two valley's and not let his neighbors know where he lives" is going to replicate my extended family's know how and infrastructure that is already in place?


No one can replicate the extended family thing. Its why I'm pretty hesitant about buying other property in places where people don't know me. If a neighbor wants to bail, thats one thing; but just selecting some place to buy for a future retreat doesn't seem like a very good idea. Even crazy neighbors that know you are better than suspicious strangers who might suspect you of stealing chickens or something.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')eak oil is a serious problem and some of you dream of being Huck Finn!

No intention of being Huck Finn, I intend to do what my great grandfather did, pretty much in the same place he did it; though there has been a bit of shuffling of the parcels since then... Just makes the history more interesting though.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ').. am under no illusions I can fend off mobs or survive, nevermind thrive, if no one else in 'my community' is getting by.
I think we'll mostly be getting by, except perhaps the crazies and drunks. Even then, they're likely related and even if you end up having to buy their land from under them, at least then you can keep them in a job of some sort, a trailer near the road, with enough money for cheap booze. [or make your own white lightning for the guy.]



Fair enough. Well put, both you and Zardoz. One thing I truly regret is that my Dad died years ago and my grandfather is now 90 and no longer in robust health. That type of intergenerational knowlege is priceless, if we talk about going back to doing things the old way. Another piece of bad luck. A grass fire 10-years ago took out our barn. No hay storage, but also took a bunch of my other grandfather's handtools with it. Too bad there were some good tools there. Oh well, you work with what you have. By the way, Mother Earth and Harrowsmith really are/were good back to the land magazines if you can get your hands on backcopies at your used book store. Have a great weekend.

p.s. as for permaculture, I will likely take my chances on hay and perennials, as less stress on the land, less fertilizer, and maybe switchgrass or whatever for ethanol production, supplemented with a large market garden, rather than a crop rotation. Too farm implement intensive for our small farm in any case.
The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.
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Re: Back to the city

Postby Doly » Thu 17 Aug 2006, 06:24:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eric_b', 'I')t may even come to the point where certain areas of the country (like Southern Kali and certain large cities) will be purposely cut-off, infrastructure wise, and allowed to wither. This would take place very rapidly and people would not have time to organize any sort of coherent response, or even understand what was happening. Planned starvation.


I don't think something like that has ever happened in recorded history. I have no reason to think it would even be doable.

And it assumes things getting way worse than they've ever been known to get in any developed country, even in the middle of a war. Way too doomerish.
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Re: Back to the city

Postby Dreamtwister » Thu 17 Aug 2006, 10:15:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eric_b', 'I')t may even come to the point where certain areas of the country (like Southern Kali and certain large cities) will be purposely cut-off, infrastructure wise, and allowed to wither. This would take place very rapidly and people would not have time to organize any sort of coherent response, or even understand what was happening. Planned starvation.


I don't think something like that has ever happened in recorded history. I have no reason to think it would even be doable.

And it assumes things getting way worse than they've ever been known to get in any developed country, even in the middle of a war. Way too doomerish.


I've got to agree. Even if it did become necessary to cull entire cities, there are far more efficient methods of doing it.
The whole of human history is a refutation by experiment of the concept of "moral world order". - Friedrich Nietzsche
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