[aahala]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('aahala', ' ')Monte, you have "double dipped" on the 51 cent/gal. blending credit.

[matt21811]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')
Asked and answered many times: Transition time, scale, no ability to create new jobs without an increase in energy supply.

[Falconoffury]

Entire corporations are based upon wastefulness and ignorance. When one conserves energy, it only helps one. The usage of one's energy to spend on goods and services helps the economy. One could argue that conservation in the face of peak energy is better for the long term economy, but the economy doesn't think long term. The economy wants to maintain business as usual for as long as possible until a sudden and complete crash.

Is peak energy upon us? Since oil is connected in one way or another to all other energy sources (and all facets of civilization), peak energy may not be that long after peak oil. Some people have difficulty understanding that the economy is highly connected in innumerable and complex ways.

I have to agree with Montequest on this, as usual. Oil is so connected with all other types of energy, that it directly or indirectly affects the price of all other energies. If ethanol ever does equal gas price, it will be because of massive subsidies, or some other significant adjustment. We'll just be robbing Peter to pay Paul. Somebody loses (not looses), and my bet is that it will be the taxpayers.

[mrobert]

Peak Oil, is Peak Energy, if most of the energy comes from oil.
It's basic logical deduction.

[matt21811]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Falconoffury', 'E')ntire corporations are based upon wastefulness and ignorance. When one conserves energy, it only helps one. The usage of one's energy to spend on goods and services helps the economy. One could argue that conservation in the face of peak energy is better for the long term economy, but the economy doesn't think long term. The economy wants to maintain business as usual for as long as possible until a sudden and complete crash.

[MrBill]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'Y')ou can conserve energy, make it last longer, while consuming less, and use those savings to invest in a near infrastructure as well. Investing in a new infrastructure creates jobs and economic activity while also consuming energy. But better to consume it while you have it to create a new infrastructure than use to preserve those jobs and economic activity that are doomed by the geological reality of peak oil or not?

[Falconoffury]

I don't actually consider most investments as a form of savings. Some investments are there to aid in economic growth, and some aren't. A bank account or a stock purchase is an act of putting money out there and entrusting others to make it grow along with economic growth. It isn't really savings at all because one is letting others use the money in hopes that they can get more. On the other hand, if I was to hold a safe full of gold, that wouldn't be doing the economy any good until I traded the gold for something else. The wealth is taken outside the system, at least temporarily.

A big question is, "Is a dollar spent on a good or service, or a dollar invested in aiding economic growth a better way to stimulate the economy?". If everyone took their wealth out of growth aiding investments and consumed less, I wonder what would happen.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('aahala', ' ')So here's how it works. Mostly registered blenders are the buyers from the 'rack' market, they do their thing then get the 51 cent refund from the IRS.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('matt21811', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')
Asked and answered many times: Transition time, scale, no ability to create new jobs without an increase in energy supply.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('matt21811', ' ')If paying for energy is a cost of doing business then saving energy doesn't just help "one". It helps anyone that is paying you to do your business, ie your customers, because all things being equal, you pass on the savings to your customers.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', ' ')And by the way, you most certainly can use energy conserved from one fated economic activity to create jobs in a new economic activity. I drive less, I save money, I invest that money in renewable energy.

[matt21811]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '5')0 years? Decades? And we did this in an expanding energy scenario, not a declining one.

.....

When demand exceeds supply is when.

You expect alterrnative sources of energy that only represent 1% or 2% of our primary energy to be scaled up to not only offset oil decline, but provide the energy for continued growth?

You better hope for a real slow decline.

Even the EIA only gives wind/solar 1% of our energy in 2030.

And it's not so much about the supply of energy as it is about the cost to access energy...even if abundant.

[mrobert]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('matt21811', 'O')ur discussion centers around the idea of whether economic output per barrel of oil is fixed, or rather how flexible that ratio is.
I have read on this board that economic output per barrel of oil has doubled since 1970. That happened in spite of amazingly cheap oil in the interveining period. I think, with consistanly high oil prices, that the ratio could improve much much more (maybe tenfold) in just a decade. I'm sure you will argue otherwise. Time will tell.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('matt21811', ' ')I expect coal and nuclear to scale up. Biofuels will help with the liquid fuel problem and it should help in spreading the wealth around to poor countries.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mrobert', ' ')Efficiency improving will play a key role in peak oil.

[aahala]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('aahala', ' ')So here's how it works. Mostly registered blenders are the buyers from the 'rack' market, they do their thing then get the 51 cent refund from the IRS.

[matt21811]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')
Coal and nuclear are not liquid fuels. Massive CTL will peak coal in 29 years. Nuclear plants take a decade historically. Ethanol in the US is 7.5 billion gallons projected. Demand will be 157 billion gallons.

Connect the dots.

[matt21811]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')
Popular Mechanics ran the numbers using galsoine and E85 from NY to LA.

33 mpg gas 17 mpg E85, $212.00 versus $425.00

Ethanol and gas equal in price?

Never.

[Ludi]

matt, who is building those nuke plants? Where are they being built? Who is investing in them?

To the best of my knowledge there is not a single new nuke plant currently under construction in the US. Not one. When will they be built?

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('aahala', 'T')he blender pays the producer $2.75, then gets from the government 51 cents. But you originally
added the rack price and the subsidy, it just aint true.