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Re: Back to the city

Unread postby Dreamtwister » Wed 09 Aug 2006, 15:48:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rwwff', 'F')irst off, I'd never pick any place that gets innundated with that slimy, wet, white stuff like Denver.


Nor would I :-D, but we aren't talking about any particular person. For better or worse, people do live there.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rwwff', 'I')f the government can not afford to plow the state highways, there will be no jobs worth having in the city.


Good point.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rwwff', 'H')eating oil is an unnecessary luxury, as is AC. When its super cold, everyone in the hobbyfarm house will have to sleep in a small room with a wood burning stove. I apologize ahead of time if I don't think this is a spectacular hardship.


I can't say I disagree, but the poor folks in Denver might.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rwwff', 'F')ood.. If they haven't learned to can, freeze, store, and/or dehydrate food by then, what the heck did they go buy a house on acreage for in the first place?


The same reason people buy SUV's and never take them off-road - they are morons.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rwwff', 'H')obbyFarm five acres plus some middle class job is more than adequate to keep a family fed and more or less comfortable.


Again, not disagreeing. But it's my contention that maintaining a middle class job in a city 50 miles away will actually [i]reduce[/b] a person's ability to survive. As pointed out by marko, that extra 15 cents per mile adds up fast.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rwwff', 'M')y point is that when it becomes so expensive that the commute will have to die for the reasons you specified, jobs in the cities will be an ancient, distant memory. ie, the jobs will die long before the commute becomes untennable.


It really depends on the job. I'm sure there will be plenty of jobs in security and related fields long after the burger flippers have disappeared, and I doubt they will pay as well as they do now.
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Re: Back to the city

Unread postby marko » Wed 09 Aug 2006, 15:49:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rwwff', 'H')eating oil is an unnecessary luxury, as is AC. When its super cold, everyone in the hobbyfarm house will have to sleep in a small room with a wood burning stove. I apologize ahead of time if I don't think this is a spectacular hardship.

Food.. If they haven't learned to can, freeze, store, and/or dehydrate food by then, what the heck did they go buy a house on acreage for in the first place? HobbyFarm five acres plus some middle class job is more than adequate to keep a family fed and more or less comfortable.


But I think that most people who have bought hobby farms have bought them because they want to be part of the horsy set or because they like the view. I don't think that most of them are interested in huddling by the woodstove or learning canning. I think that they will pack up and head for a place where they can still (for a time) afford heating and food that someone else has canned.

As for the minority who really intend to farm their hobby farm, they may fall back mainly on farming. But, as I've explained above, I question whether they can hold onto a middle-class job that is more than a few miles away. I question how many of those middle-class jobs will still be here in 10 years.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rwwff', 'M')y point is that when it becomes so expensive that the commute will have to die for the reasons you specified, jobs in the cities will be an ancient, distant memory. ie, the jobs will die long before the commute becomes untennable.


I disagree. I think that, short of all-out nuclear war, there will be jobs in cities for as long as any of us will be alive. They just won't be the same jobs. Instead of preparing marketing presentations or selling designer sunglasses, people will be loading and unloading freight-train cars manually or perhaps with the help of horse-drawn wagons. People will be tearing apart cars with hand tools to recycle the sheet metal. That kind of thing. It will make economic sense to do this in places that are at the hub of transport networks that don't require petroleum, that is in places where rail lines and water transport routes converge. Those places happen to be cities. I think that long commutes will become untenable within 20 years, tops.
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Re: Back to the city

Unread postby rwwff » Wed 09 Aug 2006, 15:56:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('marko', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rwwff', '
')snip cost analysis of driving, 45 cents -> $1.30 back to 45 cents/mile


Your costs per mile look affordable, until you multiply them by the number of miles people are actually driving. Houses sold in the recent housing boom have often been 50 miles or more from the nearest urban center. Multiply your numbers by 100 (roundrip commute) and then by 20 work days per month. The current commute, at 50 cents per mile, adds up to $1,000/month. That is serious money, on top of a mortgage. How many people have been swinging this just by refinancing their house every time it appreciates? At $1.30 per mile, the monthly cost goes to $2,600. That probably exceeds the median take-home pay.


Yes, it is serious money; but that is what they are paying; whether they want to admit it or not.

People refinancing to get money out of a house deserve what they get. No freaking sympathy from me on that score. They deserve to end up destitute, in a 1 bedroom, HUD owned apartment with no heat, no AC, no car, and eating gruel for the rest of their lives. Hope that was clear enough.

Now, back to honest people, who are paying for their mileage with wages or investments. These folks could be injured by the $1.30 per mile, no question; my point is that a reasonable adaptation exists within currently available consumer technology that will allow these folks to continue their commute, at their current cost basis, all the way up to the point of $20 gasoline, ie, nearly $500 US/2006 per barrel of oil, or very nearly 1 oz of gold per barrel.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nd this is assuming gas at "only" $20. I don't think that it will get much higher than that in the next 10 years, but what about 20 or 30 years? Gasoline is likely to become a substance like fine wine that is affordable only to the very rich, after the military and security services have claimed their share.


You've got it in one. At and past (and likely before) that $20 per gallon cost, the economy is toast, there will be no jobs in the cities worth having, and people sitting on a hobby farm will be praising God daily that they have ended up in a situation that allows them to spend 12 hours per day in the dirt growing enough food to keep their kids slightly chubby. When all our glitterati fades away, THAT will be the only thing that matters.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')ither they stay where they are and take up full-time intensive gardening and part-time local odd jobs or they move closer to their money job.


At that point, (bbl = US$500/2006) the money job will be long gone. No reason to move closer to an empty office building. That gardening and contract work will be the things that seperate them from the migrant field workers, beggars, and short lived bandits.

This is my simple demonstration, that as long as the economy is viable, commuters on hobby farms will be able to afford the commute.
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Re: Back to the city

Unread postby Zardoz » Wed 09 Aug 2006, 16:00:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dreamtwister', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', 'P')lease describe a credible scenario in which there is "suddenly" no more water or power for the great urban centers...


There are plenty of scenarios in which a major population centre could be suddenly rendered without power and water. The question is, at what point do the authorities finally throw up thier hands and say "It's not worth the expense of saving"?...


We're not talking about the same thing at all. I guess I haven't made myself clear.

All your examples are good ones of temporary disasters. Fine, but that's not what I'm talking about, and that's not what the thread is about.

The subject is the long-term viability of cities in a post-Peak, permanent-shortage reality. I'm saying the cities will get the last of the resources, because they are where everybody will be. They'll be propped up as long as possible, and will be allocated resources long after the villages, small towns, and rural areas have been completely cut off and deprived.

New York, L. A., Chicago, Atlanta, and all the rest will still be functioning, at a very-much-reduced level, long after the lights have gone out for good in the small towns. The villages will be reading by candlelight for decades before the last light switch works in Houston.
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Re: Back to the city

Unread postby Dreamtwister » Wed 09 Aug 2006, 16:14:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', 'W')e're not talking about the same thing at all. I guess I haven't made myself clear.


Not at all. I think we're on exactly the same page, I've just jumped ahead to the next paragraph.

Yes, those are temporary disasters now. But as time goes on and the economy deteriorates, those temporary disasters will become increasingly permanent. Some cities (like New York or Chicago, though I don't necessarily agree with the rest) might fare alright for a while, but the vast majority of them are may already be 1 disaster away from being completely abandoned.

And Atlanta? Please! There's what? The air terminal and the coke plant? Seriously, Atlanta is a bad choice to try and prove your point. It's entire economy is based on 2 of the first things that will go (air travel and convenience foods).
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Re: Back to the city

Unread postby rwwff » Wed 09 Aug 2006, 16:21:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('marko', 'I') don't think that most of them are interested in huddling by the woodstove or learning canning. I think that they will pack up and head for a place where they can still (for a time) afford heating and food that someone else has canned.


Interests change as conditions change.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') question whether they can hold onto a middle-class job that is more than a few miles away. I question how many of those middle-class jobs will still be here in 10 years.


Ok, you're talking about an economic shift as well, where the jobs increasingly become more human labor as opposed to intellectual property.

Surprisingly, such a shift works to expand the range of possibilities.

Riding a bicycle to a job a significant distance away is problematic for really only one reason. Sweat. If you are cycling to some middle class job in an office building with clean, dry, fresh smelling people; then the during and after commute sweat-off is a deal breaker. If you are cycling to the rail yard or metal relcamation facility, it doesn't matter worth squat, you can be thirty miles out and stll cycle that distance in what current workers consider an acceptable commute time.

So back to our hobby farm family + one job at the railhead. Joe rides his bike to the railhead 2 hours each way; shorts and a tshirt, and has jeans or uniform overalls in a backpack or panier/racktrunk. He leaves home at 6am, gets there at 8am, leaves work at 5pm and gets home before 8pm. Jane, at home with three kids, sends the kids to the rural school house, which is now a two teacher + two mom affair, in a safe, clean community. The kids miss out on the wide curriculums that we have now, but they learn to read, to do some arithmatic, etc. Mom spends the day busting her butt in the garden and doing everything that insures that no one in the family starves to death.

So, I've got my bases covered, the hobby farm can be held, if the family chooses to do so, all the way into apocolptico. Further out, say sixty miles from any major city, its harder, but if we presume some abandonment, those hobby farmers that choose to stay may be able to cobble together enough acreage to grow the food that will be on those rail cars going into the city.

And when that rail car stops at that rural town, the car will unload plows, and other horse compatible implements that those new farmers will need to keep those "city folk" from starving to death.
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Re: Back to the city

Unread postby marko » Wed 09 Aug 2006, 16:26:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rwwff', 'A')t that point, (bbl = US$500/2006) the money job will be long gone. No reason to move closer to an empty office building. That gardening and contract work will be the things that seperate them from the migrant field workers, beggars, and short lived bandits.

This is my simple demonstration, that as long as the economy is viable, commuters on hobby farms will be able to afford the commute.


Actually, we mostly agree on this. I just don't think that the economy as it now exists will be viable for much longer.

In fact, I foresee a recession next year that spirals into depression by end of the decade. This is partly because of constraints on the oil supply, which are beginning to hurt the economy, but more because the pyramid scheme that financial wiz kids have built to prop up the economy over the past 5-6 years is beginning to unwind. The global economy is already unsustainable. It has been kept on life support by more and more credit, mostly in the form of US consumer and mortgage debt. But US consumers cannot afford to take on more debt, when prices for necessities are rising and the prices of housing have reached affordability limits. Because the debt economy has to keep expanding or crash, it will crash.

When it does, people will no longer be able to afford the commutes or the mortgages on those hobby farms.

I agree that the office buildings will be empty, maybe except for squatters who are growing vegetables on the corporate campuses.

I do think that there will still be money jobs in cities. They will not be cushy office jobs. They will be dirty hard-labor jobs, as I described in my last post. They will pay some form of money. But the pay won't be worth very much.
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Re: Back to the city

Unread postby marko » Wed 09 Aug 2006, 16:35:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rwwff', 'R')iding a bicycle to a job a significant distance away is problematic for really only one reason. Sweat. If you are cycling to some middle class job in an office building with clean, dry, fresh smelling people; then the during and after commute sweat-off is a deal breaker.


Oh, I know all about this! I have one of those office jobs at the moment. (Working on a transition, hope I can do it in time.) At times, I ride the 10 miles to work on my bike. Could do it every day if I had to. But ONLY because there is a shower in the building. :lol:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rwwff', 'S')o back to our hobby farm family + one job at the railhead. Joe rides his bike to the railhead 2 hours each way; shorts and a tshirt, and has jeans or uniform overalls in a backpack or panier/racktrunk. He leaves home at 6am, gets there at 8am, leaves work at 5pm and gets home before 8pm. Jane, at home with three kids, sends the kids to the rural school house, which is now a two teacher + two mom affair, in a safe, clean community. The kids miss out on the wide curriculums that we have now, but they learn to read, to do some arithmatic, etc. Mom spends the day busting her butt in the garden and doing everything that insures that no one in the family starves to death.


This is plausible, assuming that things do not really fall apart. In fact, it is kind of heartwarming. I hope that this works out for you.
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Re: Back to the city

Unread postby rwwff » Wed 09 Aug 2006, 16:50:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('marko', 'I')n fact, I foresee a recession next year that spirals into depression by end of the decade.

I think you're guessing too quick. The inertia of 5mbpd+ of US production can not be ignored.

The housing bubble thing may be disturbing you more than it should. Trust me, the ones playing the free money scam are going to get everything they deserve. The bankers are going to get spanked a little also for handing out $500,000 checks for houses that have not even half that in real costs. Maybe together, they'll learn not to be idiots in the future, though I wouldn't count on it.

My hunch is recession in 08-10, two or three still born recoveries out till 2020, and then we repeat the 1925-1935 experience, but with less energy; we may get a true collapse and transition, instead of world war and boom.

Not that we won't get "boom"; its just won't be quite what folks hope for.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ecause the debt economy has to keep expanding or crash, it will crash.


Not a bad thing. Really. When excesses surprass outrage, its time for someone to push the reset switch.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hen it does, people will no longer be able to afford the commutes or the mortgages on those hobby farms.


Depends on the mortgage and stuff; but even if they can't; the folks that the bankers auction the property off to, will be able to. Replacing idiots with frugal people is again, not a bad thing.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ut the pay won't be worth very much.


You don't really need much cash to keep the hobby farm's taxes paid; and at that point in the economy, the banks are going to be looking for every crazy way under the sun to keep from adding another property to their forclosure and auction list.

Trust me, the last thing a bank wants to own and hold is a residential property on five acres of land. Such things are the stuff that haunt the nightmares of bank shareholders. Its the utter definition of DOOM.
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Re: Back to the city

Unread postby rwwff » Wed 09 Aug 2006, 16:58:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('marko', 'T')his is plausible, assuming that things do not really fall apart. In fact, it is kind of heartwarming. I hope that this works out for you.


I don't need it. I'm good till underverse comes. It should provide an option for those that do need it, should they wish to keep more than a mile or two between their kids and the soup lines.

However, it is conceivable that I would participate in the excercise just to not stick out too much; besides, cash in is always better than cash out...
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Re: Back to the city

Unread postby Zardoz » Wed 09 Aug 2006, 16:59:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Shannymara', '.')..I would like to know why you believe that in more explicit detail...

...the only thing the rural areas will be deprived of is the huge resource vacuum that is cities.


In the authoritarian/totalitarian socialist state that will inevitably arise post-Peak, where will the centers of power be? Where will those in control physically reside? Where do they always reside?

Small towns will most certainly be deprived of electrical power if they can't generate it themselves, and maybe they will to a limited degree. But the grid will be reconfigured to direct all that is left to the cities, because, once again, that's where most everybody will be.

The suburbs will shrivel, the exurbs will die, but the cities will become even denser in population because people will be forced to jam themselves together even more as travel and commuting become things of the past.

We're not going to spread out, post-Peak, we're going to be packed in even tighter, until the Mad Max scenario unfolds at last and everything collapses. As I said, nothing will matter then.
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Re: Back to the city

Unread postby rwwff » Wed 09 Aug 2006, 17:03:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', 'W')here will those in control physically reside? Where do they always reside?


Crawford, TX
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Re: Back to the city

Unread postby Zardoz » Wed 09 Aug 2006, 18:02:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rwwff', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', 'W')here will those in control physically reside? Where do they always reside?

Crawford, TX

OMG! Then who's that imposter living in the White House!?
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Re: Back to the city

Unread postby rwwff » Wed 09 Aug 2006, 18:07:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rwwff', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', 'W')here will those in control physically reside? Where do they always reside?

Crawford, TX

OMG! Then who's that imposter living in the White House!?


Just visiting to make the required appearance for the press. The White House is sorta like a run down room at the Radisson thats been painted over and given faux antiques.

The disposable, replaceable people live in Washington.

The ones that count live elsewhere, occassionally visiting DC to meet their peers. An archaic and unnecessary activity that will pass out of fashion soon enough.
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Re: Back to the city

Unread postby Zardoz » Wed 09 Aug 2006, 18:09:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Shannymara', '.')..While I don't doubt there will be some electricity in cities after the smaller towns are in the dark, I doubt the masses will benefit too much from it.


They'd better benefit from it. There will be hundreds of millions of them and they'll still be very heavily armed.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')PTB are already putting in place the necessary infrastructure and plans to divert electricity to the military and to maintaining their own power when things begin to collapse.


To maintain their power they will have to hold off the collapse as long as possible and keep the masses, milling about in the cities, from going postal. Post-collapse, there will be no power to wield.

And what do you mean by "divert electricity to the military"? How do you do that?
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Re: Back to the city

Unread postby eric_b » Wed 09 Aug 2006, 18:54:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Shannymara', '.')..While I don't doubt there will be some electricity in cities after the smaller towns are in the dark, I doubt the masses will benefit too much from it.


They'd better benefit from it. There will be hundreds of millions of them and they'll still be very heavily armed.


First off I want to say this is a great topic and I've enjoyed reading everyones opinion.

I'm sort of undecided. I can see a little truth in everyones point of view. As I've said before, who knows how the cookie is going to crumble - but crumble it will.

Zardoz, while it's true the US has many gun owners, this does not guarantee they will be a factor in any sort of collapse. A few days without food, water and heat (or AC) would take the fight out of most people. And it may be that TPTB will use deception and trickery (as is already the case) to keep them in the dark (pun not intented) about the true magnitude of the collapse until it's too late. It may even come to the point where certain areas of the country (like Southern Kali and certain large cities) will be purposely cut-off, infrastructure wise, and allowed to wither. This would take place very rapidly and people would not have time to organize any sort of coherent response, or even understand what was happening. Planned starvation.

While following this dark line of thought, there's some scant evidence the levees in NO were purposely blown. I don't personally believe this, but it's food for thought.
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Re: Back to the city

Unread postby Zardoz » Wed 09 Aug 2006, 19:18:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Shannymara', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', 'A')nd what do you mean by "divert electricity to the military"? How do you do that?

http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/w ... ning.shtml

Wow! Now that is impressive. Kudos to TPTB for their demonic cleverness. That's worthy of Satan, himself.

We are, as pstarr says, absolutely screwed six ways from Sunday. We're all dead meat. We're walking hamburgers.
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Re: Back to the city

Unread postby rwwff » Wed 09 Aug 2006, 19:29:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', 'N')ow that is impressive. Kudos to TPTB for their demonic cleverness. That's worthy of Satan, himself.


Whats so horrible about the military having first dibs on electric power generation??? Sounds like an excellent plan to me.
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Re: Back to the city

Unread postby emersonbiggins » Wed 09 Aug 2006, 19:49:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rwwff', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', 'N')ow that is impressive. Kudos to TPTB for their demonic cleverness. That's worthy of Satan, himself.


Whats so horrible about the military having first dibs on electric power generation??? Sounds like an excellent plan to me.


A fine plan, indeed, so long as their objectives don't interfere with yours or mine. I fear that they will. :x
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Re: Back to the city

Unread postby rwwff » Wed 09 Aug 2006, 20:02:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emersonbiggins', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rwwff', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', 'N')ow that is impressive. Kudos to TPTB for their demonic cleverness. That's worthy of Satan, himself.
Whats so horrible about the military having first dibs on electric power generation??? Sounds like an excellent plan to me.

A fine plan, indeed, so long as their objectives don't interfere with yours or mine. I fear that they will.


So? Conform your objectives to those which are held by the people who wield power as much as possible and try not to let your other objectives get in the way of those who wield power.
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