[swingbolder]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TommyJefferson', '
')They won't be fleeing to anywhere. How would they with no gasoline? They will starve in place.

[marko]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('swingbolder', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TommyJefferson', '
')They won't be fleeing to anywhere. How would they with no gasoline? They will starve in place.

[frankthetank]

Marko~

They'll come back from Iraq and they won't even have to change outfits!

[dinopello]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('green_achers', ' ')it seems that humans have always formed themselves into cities

[TommyJefferson]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('marko', 'H')owever, the surplus population of New Orleans,...

[Zardoz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TommyJefferson', '.')..Imagine 24 million people in Southern California suddenly without running water or electricity to pump gasoline into trucks for resupply of grocery stores...

[Pops]

I think it is quite plausible that exurb commuters will decide to move closer to work at some point after buying a smaller cars doesn’t help – that is as long as they can find someone to buy their hobby-horse farm.

But what of the folks in town that can no longer find work? I think it is pretty silly to think they are going to sit and starve on the street, become rampaging ghouls or turn to eating grubs in the park let along spreading out like locusts across the countryside - unless they are looking for part-time farm work.

They will do what people in straits have always done and move in with family or friends – they did it during the depression, heck, my kids did it when they were hard up. Long before there is no fuel to be had, people will have lost jobs and homes and made other arrangements. They will fill up the houses of the people they know who still have a job – there will be jobs by the way.

I think if you base your assumptions on waking up one fine day and a majority of the population has expired overnight you are going to be disappointed. Likewise, fleeing from a hurricane doesn’t sound apt either. There is no evacuation-warning siren for unemployment or inflation because they don’t strike overnight. There will be no mass exodus causing traffic jams, no lack of electricity to pump gas in the face of an oncoming permanent recession.

I’m sure there will be migration as in the depression when people in the south went north to work in the automobile plants and Okies went west to work in the fruit or in the defense plants, though I have no guess where they will be going. The weren’t looking for food but for work. Yea some of those folks might rustle a chicken or watermelon if they are hard up but you can bet they wouldn’t get too many miles before facing a little homegrown justice if they did much worse.

As far as totalitarian government, has anyone noticed a shift in acceptance of our current administrations attempt to take more power to the executive branch? Even in a time where people ignore politics and willingly trade freedoms for security I sense a backlash.

Again during the depression the government worked to help people with make-work programs etc., they didn’t confiscate their last jar of peanut butter or round them up in reeducation camps. You may not agree that the programs created during that time or during the oil embargoes were sound and I won’t argue that they didn’t do more harm than good in many instances. But at the time the rich and powerful and monopolies had more power than today and still the majority of programs I believe were aimed at restarting the economy and rebuilding employment.

OK, I feel better!

[Dreamtwister]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', 'P')lease describe a credible scenario in which there is "suddenly" no more water or power for the great urban centers. Please describe how New York City dwellers could wake up one morning with no water and no electricity.

[emersonbiggins]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '
')Again during the depression the government worked to help people with make-work programs etc., they didn’t confiscate their last jar of peanut butter or round them up in reeducation camps. You may not agree that the programs created during that time or during the oil embargoes were sound and I won’t argue that they didn’t do more harm than good in many instances. But at the time the rich and powerful and monopolies had more power than today and still the majority of programs I believe were aimed at restarting the economy and rebuilding employment.

OK, I feel better!

[rwwff]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pops', 'I') think it is quite plausible that exurb commuters will decide to move closer to work at some point after buying a smaller cars doesn’t help – that is as long as they can find someone to buy their hobby-horse farm.

[Pops]

Don’t say that, I have my eye on that big McMansion down the road for my future hog barn!

[azreal60]

Never thought I'd be agreeing whole heartedly with Rwwff, but he's quite correct. It's simple really. America has so much slack in our saleries, that we could really cut alot of consumer spending before we would have problems with paying for gas for his senario. Yes the really long commuters would have problems. And yes, the people who are already on the edge will go over first. But this is why I'm so convinced we won't see huge drops in demand. They will make every effort to conserve. But by and large people are locked into where they live. And they will continue to work where the jobs are, in the cities by and large. So yes, we will continue to consume most of what we do now, market price increase or no. We'll just have to be creative and people will move to cities that are creative with their public transport and their policies with bikes and other forms of non care transport. This will make the difference.

Which honestly, makes peak oil all the more likely to happen faster. We Can't reduce demand, it's built into our infrastructure.

[Dreamtwister]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rwwff', 'T')his is where I diverge from the folks that say back to the city... I think it is fair to say that most folks who are commuting long distances right now are typically driving vehicles that get 20mpg, and cost an addition 30-40 cents per mile in maintenance, depreciation, insurance and expendables. If gas goes to $6 per gallon, with the same vehicle that only takes the costs from 50 cents per mile to 65 cents per mile. If gas goes to $20 per gallon, then we're getting somewhere on cost, taking it up to $1.30 per mile. However, lets now looks at the extreme adaptation, if that person goes out and buys a scooter that gets 80 miles per gallon, and has an additional cost of 20 cents per mile, that takes it all the way back to 45 cents per mile.

[marko]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dreamtwister', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', 'P')lease describe a credible scenario in which there is "suddenly" no more water or power for the great urban centers. Please describe how New York City dwellers could wake up one morning with no water and no electricity.

[emersonbiggins]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('azreal60', 'N')ever thought I'd be agreeing whole heartedly with Rwwff, but he's quite correct. It's simple really. America has so much slack in our saleries, that we could really cut alot of consumer spending before we would have problems with paying for gas for his senario.

[Dreamtwister]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('marko', 'N')ew York suddenly without water is harder. The system is 95% gravity-fed (http://www.nyc.gov/html/dep/html/history.html) and does not require power to supply most customers. The only way to shut it down would be to blow up multiple aqueducts, which would require a lot of coordination and explosives. It is hard to imagine.

[Pops]

So 15 cents a mile at 40 miles round trip per day (which is what my commuting neighbors are driving) is $6 bucks a day, $30/week, $120/month, $1,140/year.

Add a doubling of propane, maybe 800 gallons at an additional $3/gal is another $2,400.

Electricity will continue to go up as well

And an up tick in interest rates on the cards, general inflation on everything else, more than likely stagnating wages, falling RE values and banksters getting wise and tighten up causing an inability to continue borrowing…

I don’t think it’s just gas prices we are worrying about.

[rwwff]

First off, I'd never pick any place that gets innundated with that slimy, wet, white stuff like Denver. But lets run with Denver for the purposes of discussing your points anyway.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dreamtwister', 'I')nteresting cost analysis. I have a question, though.
How many people are going to drive a scooter to work in...say...Denver, especially at a time when government budgets might not be able to afford things like snowplows?

[marko]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rwwff', 'T')his is where I diverge from the folks that say back to the city... I think it is fair to say that most folks who are commuting long distances right now are typically driving vehicles that get 20mpg, and cost an addition 30-40 cents per mile in maintenance, depreciation, insurance and expendables. If gas goes to $6 per gallon, with the same vehicle that only takes the costs from 50 cents per mile to 65 cents per mile. If gas goes to $20 per gallon, then we're getting somewhere on cost, taking it up to $1.30 per mile. However, lets now looks at the extreme adaptation, if that person goes out and buys a scooter that gets 80 miles per gallon, and has an additional cost of 20 cents per mile, that takes it all the way back to 45 cents per mile.

[rwwff]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'D')on’t say that, I have my eye on that big McMansion down the road for my future hog barn!