[mrobert]

Hello,

Based on my observations, I dare to model a different way, of things will end up.
What I have noticed in the past years, is a global scale promotion of the "lazy class". People that don't need to get an education, work, etc ... and the government will provide everything for them.

Subsidies are at all time high, and taxes as a result, because money is needed.
Everytime I watch the TV and hear about energy other prices going up, there is always a note at the end, that the government will take care of those that can't afford it.

I don't know how to put this, but the building I live in, is the last place you would expect to see poor people (in Romania's 3rd largest city, very close to the heart of the city, real estate is expensive in this area, etc) ... yet! Last winter, over half of my neighbours got their heating costs heavily subsidiesed by the government (over 50% covered) ... by simply filling in a form.

Offcourse, governments will keep pushing taxes up, to cover for both higher energy prices, and more lazzy people coming into the system.
Somewhere in time, there will be a breaking point. When those that work will stop (in some way) supporting those that don't work.

And you will see at least half the planet going down the drain.
But will it make a difference?
No. It doesn't make a difference today, so it won't make in the future.
Or perhaps, it will make a positive difference, as we won't have to sustain useless people.

----
Let's rethink PO with only 1/3rd of the global population in the equations. Oil will last enough to be replaced with alternatives.

With or without the other 2/3rd in the equation, global economy is the same.

I see this coming down nicely.

[energyaddict]

useless people? sieg heil!

If you are going to let the "useless people" die, they will for sure wait till their day has come.... Or do you think that they will rather loot and kill other people (the worthy class of usefull people???) to get a bite to eat? How are you going to avoid that? Built concentration camps for the useless people? Some kind of people makes me really wonder....

[mrobert]

Now don't get me wrong.
I am not trying to be discrimnatory, and I don't share the same view with nazi's, KKK, and others from the same club.
And I am not pointing my finger to anyone in specific, based on personal oppinions.

But I wasn't born to work twice as much as I have to, just because some are too lazy to get a job, and preffer to stay at home on social help and subsidies, which are paid from high taxes collected from me.

A slow and nice cut-off of all social help and subsidies for those that are not willing to work, in say 10 years, will convince 90% to get a job. We can handle the possible looting and crime caused by the other 10%.

I don't have anything against social aid services and systems.
Except when they are beeing abused.

Let me give you an example.
A few years ago, in the village where my parents live, the government handed out relief (food, clothes, etc) for those that "needed it".
Do you know what happened?
We got a nice supply of food, purchased at less the 25% it's value, because everyone rushed to sell everything for cash.
For a week or so, there were massive drinking parties at the local saloon.
After a week, everything was sold as soon as possible, and consumed as alcohool.

So ... please tell me that we should continue to work hard, and support those people.
And I can go on with examples like this ...

[energyaddict]

OK - here we are....

If we get anybody in a job they will become more wealthy and you do not need to subsidise them with your tax money, that would be a good thing. True or not true?

I have to answers to that question:

1. In a world with infinite growth (current system)
There is a generation of more wealth for all participants in the system if everybody is involved. A bigger share for the new participants will not influence your share as the cake get´s bigger. Enough for everybody....

2. In a world with finite capacity (what we really have?)
Your neighbours competing in the labour market. As they might have not the same skills you have today they offer their work for less than you do. After starting to work they will get more experienced over time and might do the same job you do for less. That is the point in time were your employer will give you two choices: Work for less or get fired. As there is no social system you cannot afford to become jobless, therefore you will work for less - and of course pay less tax. As the size of the cake is still the same as before if your neighbours share is increasing your share must decrease... As they are participating in the system now they want to have the same share as you have.

In a finite system it might be usefull to buy your neighbour a bottle of vodka to keep him happy instead of sharing with him what is there to be shared.... If you are working and he is not, he will be accept that you have more as he has - but if he is working also he will not accept that gap....

Be careful what you wish for....

[mrobert]

@energyaddict : you are right in your statements.

However, number 1) is not our case Infinite growth on finite resources is impossible.

2) You are partly right. More people come into the system and I have to work less. Considering that in the current situation I end up spending a maximum of 25% from what I make, I could still work for a quarter of a price, and enjoy the same benefits.

It's not that I have 75% income tax, but 16% income tax + 19% VAT + other heavy taxes on various items, brings me to these figures.

Population number MUST be controled. We have a fixed size cake, so there is nothing to argue about.
If every family of 2, has 2 children, population is constant.
Having 2 children (or 1 or none) is completely acceptable for me (as a rational person). There is no need for me to make 4,5,10,15 of them, knowing that I can't support them, and make them a burden for society.

Again, what happened in my country?
The government pulled a nice law, that every woman that gives birth to a child, can spend 2 years at home, receiving every month, the equivalent of an average wage.
Sounds fine. Afterall, both me and my wife paid and will continue to pay plenty of taxes into this fund, and sounds pretty fair.

But what happened? We have a massive explosion in child birth by our belowed national gipsy minority. 4-5 kids is something usual for them, and 6-7 is not really a miracle or special case.
My entire lifetime, I have met only 2 families of gipsies, for which I have respect. One were educated intelectual persons, nicely contributing to our society, and the other family were o say with average education, but used to work in the constructions and do a damn fine job. They were always 101% fair and honest. On the other hand, I see thousands of them who never paid 1 single cent in taxes, run around stealing, looting, killing, kidnaping, etc.

What does our government do?
Takes out a loan of 68 million US dollars, in order to fund various programs to "integrate them into society"

My ass.
My mother is a school teacher in a small village, were (as actually everywhere) there are plenty of gipsies.
They come to the first grade, spend a few months in school, then they drop out.
Nobody kicks them out, nobody discriminates them, and it doesn't cost them a dime, to walk 1 minute to the school and spend the day learning, completely free.

-------------
You are right. I can buy my neighbour a bottle of vodka, and keep him quiet. But unfortunately that would make me a bastard (in terms of how I think) ... a rich bastard, I might add (compared to him) ... but I know better then that, that one day, I won't afford to buy everyone a bottle of vodka, as there will be too many of them.

What will we do then?

[skeptic]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('energyaddict', 'H')ow are you going to avoid that? Built concentration camps for the useless people?

[MrBill]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mrobert', '
')You are right. I can buy my neighbour a bottle of vodka, and keep him quiet. But unfortunately that would make me a bastard (in terms of how I think) ... a rich bastard, I might add (compared to him) ... but I know better then that, that one day, I won't afford to buy everyone a bottle of vodka, as there will be too many of them.

What will we do then?

[pup55]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 't')axpayers cannot indefinately go on supporting free loaders, especially when those free loaders have high birthrates and gobble up scarce public resources in what are still low income, developing countries

[mrobert]

@MrBill : I see that you are familiar with the situation in Romania.
Have you been here? If you ever come, you're welcomed to join me for a cup of coffee.

You right about the villages in the Carpathians. My parents have a house in one of them. I decided to invest some money, and fix and change a few things there, as it will be mine someday.

It's a small property, but we have a water fountain uphill, which suplies water for the entire house and the garden, totally free of charge (it comes down in freefall), a nice orchard, some grapes for wine, and some land for gardening.
It's a nice place were I will be able to live "off the system" if we ever come to that.

At this time, I live in a large city, have a good job (run my own company), drive an import car, etc... but if it ever comes to it, I still know how to maintain a garden and an orchard, fix virtually anything that can broke (appliances, car, etc), so I will be just fine.

I grew up spending my summer vacations at my grandparents in a very remote village, where everyone lived off the system, on their own crop ... and it was a damn fine life!
I can go back anytime, and be happy with that.

Other then that, I have no debt, I try to save as much as I can.

I often visit my parents, and spend time working in the garden.
It's refreshing and relaxing, and nothing compares to vegetables grown on a piece of soil that has never seen any chemical stuff.


To be honest, even before I was aware of PeakOil, I always had this ideea in mind : "What if the world f*cks up real bad, and I have to reside to basic survival to make it?" ... and so I learned virtually anything I had the chance, while growing up.

You never know .. someday they all turn out to be usefull.

[MrBill]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mrobert', '@')MrBill : I see that you are familiar with the situation in Romania.
Have you been here? If you ever come, you're welcomed to join me for a cup of coffee.

[Jack]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mrobert', 'O')r perhaps, it will make a positive difference, as we won't have to sustain useless people.

[KrellEnergySource]

Requiring everyone to work just for the sake of not paying high taxes for welfare is kind of a solution, but a short sighted one. That causes more human activity and requires more energy consumption and resource depletion as they make things or do things.

The only sustainable answer, I'm personally certain, involves reducing the amount of work performed by all and sharing the required labor for the good of all, comrades. But no political system will work unless the people back it. Gulag's had best not be a requirement of a workable system. We're not there yet and may never be.

The other major piece to the puzzle is population reduction through birth control (allowed births only). Again, that would only work with acceptance of such policies by the vast majority of the populace. Forced abortions should not be a requirement of a workable system. We're not there yet either and may never be.

Mankind, as a whole, has no collective desire for sustainability. I can't imagine how bad things will have to be before that becomes a goal to most people instead of a small minority. Every year I grow more cynical about not just what I see in others, but about what I see in my own actions.

Brian

[mrobert]

@MrBill : That's not so long ago. Things are slighlty different now (for the better). If you ever come back, I live in Cluj Napoca (Romania's 3rd largest city) ... you are welcomed ... just drop me a note.

As for the hungarians ... I am half hungarian (my mother is hungarian). I really have no problem with that, and never did have one. I didn't needed any help with "integration", etc.
For me it's an advantage. I speak 2 languages natively, and I travel through Hungary often, and it helps to speak the language

@Jack : I am not for shooting, killing or anything else to people.
But. We CAN STOP doing this sh*t and don't bring more in the current subsidy system. Hell .. sustain those that are already in it, give them whatever, but don't bring more in. It's not to late, and we can "get rid of it" in 50 years tops, in a very natural way.

Do you honestly think that people will "decline their living standard" so that more can fit into the system? They won't. It's human nature.
Sure, I could go out and share everything I have with my neighbours and we could all live (at a lower level) ... but you won't see me doing that anytime soon.

What would motivate me to work from 8 to 11 PM, and then share everything with someone who spent the day drinking, watching the sports channel, and leaving it's trash by the building because he is to lazy to walk 10 seconds to the trash bin?

5.5 billion won't help the oil situation, but 1 billion can drive around in SUV's using ethanol.

---------------
Everytime someone complains about high electricity costs, I point out the fact that I bought some efficient light bulbs that consume 4 times less and give 10% more light, and cut my bill to half.
They cost about the same, and are available anywhere ... yet they won't switch to them ... and keep complaining about high costs.

Is it so difficult to change a light bulb?
If they won't do even that ... why would I work to sustain them?

We all have to contribute in some way to come out of this mess.
It's not up to 1 or a few people to solve the energy problem.

[mrobert]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KrellEnergySource', 'R')equiring everyone to work just for the sake of not paying high taxes for welfare is kind of a solution, but a short sighted one. That causes more human activity and requires more energy consumption and resource depletion as they make things or do things.

[Dreamtwister]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', 'I') expect the demise of about 5.5 billion people worldwide. But I doubt it will help the oil situation - not when you consider the costs of managing the problems that come with a dieoff.

[Dreamtwister]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mrobert', '5').5 billion won't help the oil situation, but 1 billion can drive around in SUV's using ethanol.

[MrBill]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he problem isn't the people who contribute next to nothing, because they consume next to nothing. The problem is caused by the top 5%, and until we can address their consumption, the problem will remain.

[Doly]

I said it in another thread, and I'm going to repeat it here:

You could calculate energy usage in any area with the following formula:

Energy usage = population x consumption x efficiency

Looking at this, is obvious that poor countries need to work mostly on controlling their population, rich countries need to work mostly on reducing their consumption, and those in the middle (like Russia and China) need to work mostly on increasing their efficiency.

Don't pass the blame somewhere else. We have to focus everywhere in the points where we can make the biggest difference.

[MrBill]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', 'I') said it in another thread, and I'm going to repeat it here:

You could calculate energy usage in any area with the following formula:

Energy usage = population x consumption x efficiency

Looking at this, is obvious that poor countries need to work mostly on controlling their population, rich countries need to work mostly on reducing their consumption, and those in the middle (like Russia and China) need to work mostly on increasing their efficiency.

Don't pass the blame somewhere else. We have to focus everywhere in the points where we can make the biggest difference.

[mrobert]

Doly is right.

In his equation, we can make population a constant.
Consumption can be directly reduced by increasing efficiency.

But population increases faster then efficiency, and consumption.

When I opened the thread, I tried to make it clear that the problem is not caused by either the US, China or me. We ALL created this mess and continue to contribute to it.

As for the poor consuming close to nothing, let me give you an example. Half the country still drives the national car, the Dacia.
It's a crappy car, mainly owned by the poor class.

It does have a poor mileage compared to my import car, and runs on leaded fuel, causing dangerous lead polution.
Offcourse, for what the car's worth, everyone could have changed his Dacia, with a german or french used car, which gets a way better mileage and runs on unleaded fuel.

But to "protect" the new car importers, they banned the registration of any imported car, manufactured prior to 2001, and we still have a few million crappy cars running on leaded fuel, at a poor mileage.

Over the years, it would have made a difference. In both energy usage and polution ... but offcourse, the pockets of car importers are more important.

As someone said on these forums. There isn't one solution to PeakOil. We must do everything we can. Save a bit here, a bit there, replace some of the oil and so on. Hundreds of things need to be done to avoid a crash.

-----
What drives me crazy, is when someone proactively BANS even the easiest steps that can be taken to reduce energy usage and polution.
It wouldn't have costed anyone a dime, to let every man here, buy a better import car, and reduce oil usage an polution.
They simply BANNED it, from happening.

It's like forcing everyone to have an SUV and drive at least 100 miles everyday, by law.