by omgwtfbyobbq » Tue 08 Aug 2006, 21:58:30
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TWilliam', 'J')eezus you people make my head hurt...
Jevons did not 'theorize' or 'postulate' that an increase in efficiency would ultimately lead to an increase in consumption; he simply observed that that's what happens. If you increase the availability of a resource (i.e. reduce it's cost), whether by finding more of it or by increasing the efficiency of it's use, the ultimate outcome is that demand increases and more of it gets used, until physical limits prevent further expansion. End of story.
You make baby Jeezus cry.
Consumption is not
availability. End of story.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TWilliam', 'G')reater efficiency; greater consumption. Without exception.
It doesn't matter that we increased efficiency, because we cannot increase consumption if there is less of a resource to consume. Utility is not consumption, availability is not consumption. Consumption is consumption. End of story.
by MonteQuest » Tue 08 Aug 2006, 22:00:03
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', 'T')he difference, Monte, is not on the level of consumption, then.
The difference is on how many people can afford to enjoy the resource and how much benefit they can extract from it. With efficiency, more people can afford the resource, and extract from it more benefit.
So, conservation does achieve something, doesn't it?
And how does this solve peak oil?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') say conservation is the difference between a hard crash and a soft landing. And for me, that can be considered as solving a lot of the peak oil issue.
Conservation is a self-induced recession. A decline in economic activity. Who absorbs the losses? It also increases supply which lowers the price and increases consumption. People insist that Jevon's is not applicable in a declining energy environment. I agree
if the resource is declining
faster than efficiency gains.
If efficieincy gains can't offset decline, then the argument does become moot, as it is
no solution.
We have been over this all before ad naseum.
Last edited by
MonteQuest on Tue 08 Aug 2006, 22:04:58, edited 1 time in total.
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
by omgwtfbyobbq » Tue 08 Aug 2006, 22:06:07
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('omgwtfbyobbq', 'I')ncreases in efficiency will not result in more of that resource.
No? What happens to the efficiency gains? They disapppear?
The resource net amount doesn't increase, only it's availability.
O.k. one last post.
Consumption is not
availability.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Montequest', 'T')hus, post-peak, if oil declines faster than efficiency gains, then Jevon's becomes irelevant...and only then.
And if conservation and efficiency gains cannot offset peakoil losses, then the whole debate becomes moot.
Jevon's Paradox concerns consumption. Not availability. Post peak in some reasource we will have less of that resource, so consumption cannot increase. Availability can because efficiency may result in less use, with the result being more available on the market. But
availability is not consumption. Consumption can not increase post peak.
P.s. In addition to logic, a dictionary may be of some use to you as well.
by MonteQuest » Tue 08 Aug 2006, 22:14:13
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('tsakach', 'H')ow does Jevons Paradox apply to non-grid connected renewable energy sources like solar panels, solar thermal, wind power or wood stoves?
The point at which you go off grid releases the energy you were using back to the market, so Jevons Paradox would apply to this action. But from this point forward you no longer participate in the energy macroeconomy, so subsequent improvements in energy efficiency affect only the microeconomic level and do not result in increased demand caused by Jevons Paradox.
If you don't spend the money you save into the macroeconomy, then you are free of Jevon's Paradox with regard to the free market, but will you use more energy as you become more efficient? Or less?
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
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by MonteQuest » Tue 08 Aug 2006, 22:25:10
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('omgwtfbyobbq', ' ')Post peak in some reasource we will have less of that resource, so consumption cannot increase. Availability can because efficiency may result in less use, with the result being more available on the market. But availability is not consumption. Consumption can not increase post peak.
Efficiency gains cannot increase supply post peak?
Folks, you heard it right here.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Montequest', 'W')hich brings us back to the whole point: conservation and efficiency are not a peak oil solution by any measure. Only a very short-term stopgap.
Thus, post-peak, if oil declines faster than efficiency gains, then Jevon's becomes irelevant...and only then.
And if conservation and efficiency gains cannot offset peakoil decline, then the whole debate about Jevon's Paradox and conservation/efficiency gains solving peak oil becomes moot.
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
by MonteQuest » Tue 08 Aug 2006, 23:59:21
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('omgwtfbyobbq', ' ')I have a vehicle that gets ~50mpg. The vehicle I drove before gets ~20mpg. I increased my energy efficiency wrt transportation. During my last year of driving the 20mpg vehicle I drove over 10,000 miles. In the year I have had the 50mpg I have driven under 7,000 miles. My vehicle efficiency has increased, but my energy use has decreased.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', 'S')ure... for
you.
Not the point... it's that the energy you didn't consume, makes other's energy more affordable.
And the money you saved was spent on other energy consumption, or the money you saved was borrowed by someone to consume energy. The Rebound Effect.
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
by MonteQuest » Wed 09 Aug 2006, 00:03:20
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('omgwtfbyobbq', ' ')Consumption is not supply. Consumption is not availability.
Who says it is?
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
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by omgwtfbyobbq » Wed 09 Aug 2006, 00:17:06
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'W')ho says it is?
Why, the dictionary.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')ain Entry: consumption
Part of Speech: noun
Definition: use
Synonyms: burning, consuming, damage, decay, decrease, depletion, desolation, destruction, devastation, diminution, dispersion, dissipation, drinking, eating, exhaustion, expenditure, loss, misuse, ruin, swallowing, utilization, waste
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')ain Entry: supply
Part of Speech: noun
Definition: reserve
Synonyms: accumulation, amount, backlog, cache, fund, hoard, inventory, number, quantity, reservoir, source, stock, stockpile, store, surplus
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')ain Entry: available
Part of Speech: adjective
Definition: ready
Synonyms: accessible, achievable, applicable, at hand, attainable, come-at-able*, convenient, derivable from, feasible, free, getable, gettable, handy, obtainable, on deck*, on hand*, on tap*, open to, possible, prepared, procurable, purchasable, reachable, realizable, securable, serviceable, usable, vacant
by MonteQuest » Wed 09 Aug 2006, 00:18:52
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('omgwtfbyobbq', ' ')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'I') asked for hard data, not an anecdote.
That is hard data. My insurance company has records of my mileage and vehicle efficiency is exhibitory.
No, that is anecdotal evidence. It is based upon personal experience or unverified by a controlled data study. It is also a micro-example. I want to see macro-economical data to refute the EIA data I offered to support my position.
And since:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')In the economics literature it is … well known that increased efficiency in the use of a resource leads over time to greater use of that resource and not less use of it" This might explain, for instance, why there appears to be
no example of a developed society that has succeeded in combining sustained reductions in energy consumption with economic growth. Mr Alan Meier, of the IEA, referred to "several countries that, for brief periods, reduced their electricity consumption or their energy consumption"—often in response to short-term supply crises—but such reductions in demand have
never been sustained. This does not mean that sustained reductions in energy consumption are impossible—simply that it is yet to be demonstrated that they are possible
I doubt that you can.
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
by MonteQuest » Wed 09 Aug 2006, 00:21:30
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('omgwtfbyobbq', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'W')ho says it is?
Why, the dictionary.
Of course. Your point?
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
by MonteQuest » Wed 09 Aug 2006, 00:32:52
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('omgwtfbyobbq', ' ')But Jevon's Paradox is only about individual resources with respect to themselves.
No, it is about the macro-economical effect. The Rebound effect takes up where Jevon's leaves off.
Look, you can dispute Jevon's until the cows come home, but until you provide hard data to support your position, that's all it is: a dispute.
Try refuting the data I provided.
We know it wasn't population growth alone that caused it.
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
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by omgwtfbyobbq » Wed 09 Aug 2006, 00:33:32
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('omgwtfbyobbq', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'W')ho says it is?
Why, the dictionary.
Of course. Your point?
You asked, "Who says it is?"
Broadly speaking, I suppose it's that Jevon's Paradox cannot apply post peak. That consumption is not the same thing as supply or availability. Just because a large increase in efficiency can increase the relative supply on the market, does not mean it increases consumption, which is what Jevon's Paradox is about.
by MonteQuest » Wed 09 Aug 2006, 00:48:16
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('omgwtfbyobbq', 'H')ere's a nice marcoeconomic example. The US supply of crude oil peaked in ~1971 iirc, at this point the consumption of US crude was maximal. After 1971 vehicle efficiency increased, but consumption of US crude decreased. There was no more US crude, there was less US crude, so consumption could not increase, it could only decrease.
But only for a while. The decrease came at the industrial level. In fact, auto fuel use never decreased; it increased. Google the data. And as you see from the chart I posted, that didn't last long.
Which is what Jevon's says, "over time."
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')oubt all you want. Consumption cannot increase if there is no more to consume. A peak means that consumption must decrease because there is not as much to consume.
Saying this doesn't equate hard data to support your position. You are back to disputing Jevon's without data to support your position.
As I have said a dozen times:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Montequest', 'H')owever, if supply declines faster than efficiency gains, then the price won't drop.
Why is this so hard for you to grasp?
Overall net consumption cannot increase, but consumption of what you gain by efficiency gains will increase as you lower the price by increasing available supply.
If efficiency gains don't offset decline, then they are useless to solve peakoil, and if they do offset decline and increase the supply, then the lower price will increase the consumption up to the available limit or people's ability to acquire it.
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
by MonteQuest » Wed 09 Aug 2006, 00:54:10
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('omgwtfbyobbq', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('omgwtfbyobbq', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'W')ho says it is?
Why, the dictionary.
Of course. Your point?
You asked, "Who says it is?"
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
