My God! Does anyone in the Peak Oil Cult know anything about automobiles or the industry? Apparently the answer is NO!!
There have been plenty of small, inexpensive, good mileage vehicles available for years, yet very few Americans have bought them. So the solution most people on this board propose is to raise MPG requirements and force consumers to buy vehicles they would not freely choose on their own. Central planning like that worked so well in the Soviet Union. The new subcompacts (Fit, Yaris, Aveo, and Versa) are selling well, but are still a sliver of the overall market. It seems that even at $3-$4 a gallon, most Americans aren’t ready to fold themselves into a subcompact.
Toyota is building a 200k capacity plant in TX as we speak that will be rolling out the biggest, baddest, crappiest MPG truck they have ever made. Does that sound like a brilliant move from the enviro-wackos favorite car company (Ignore those endangered whales their executives are dining on)?
If GM or Ford burn enough cash to enter Chapter 11 in the next 12-18 months, the US and world will probably be in a depression. Then oil will drop to $10 or $20/barrel due to extreme demand destruction.
I've been buying GM and Ford exchange traded debt over the past several years. If you go by the yields, the markets think GM is going to make it, while they are still concerned about Ford.
Personally, I think Nissan is in for some long term problems. Their egomaniacal leader has just competed a disastrous NA HQ move from SoCal to Nashville, their sales are tanking (and they don't have the big threes employee pricing in 2005 comparison excuse), and their quality sucks (the Nissan plant in MS is one of the worst on the planet.)
By the way, there are no more waiting lists for ANY hybrids, even the Prius. In fact, Toyota has quietly started to offer incentives on the Prius. I guess all the environmental Nazis who wanted to show the world how green they are have bought one already.
At WSJ.com (subscription site)
Article quote:
"In recent months, some dealers have also started offering discounts on hybrid models, in part because sales of some hybrids have slowed.
The discounts often come as higher trade-in values offered to people buying hybrids. Honda dealers averaged Accord-hybrid deals of $1,400 in June, according to CNW Marketing Research. Among other hybrids being discounted by dealers are Mercury Mariners, with deals averaging $1,900; and Toyota Prius models, with nearly $1,100 off.
Last year at this time, dealer discounts on hybrids were virtually unheard of."