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OManipadmiommmmmmm....

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

OManipadmiommmmmmm....

Postby Aaron » Mon 07 Aug 2006, 11:43:31

Image

OManipadmiommmmmmm, ommmmmm Kelly Clarkson ommmmm
The problem is, of course, that not only is economics bankrupt, but it has always been nothing more than politics in disguise... economics is a form of brain damage.

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Re: OManipadmiommmmmmm....

Postby thuja » Mon 07 Aug 2006, 12:15:45

Ommmmmmmmmmm I see a trend Mani Padme Ommmmmmmmm
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Re: OManipadmiommmmmmm....

Postby JustinFrankl » Mon 07 Aug 2006, 12:36:35

Om looks like oil will top mani $100 before the end of padme March, 2007 hum.
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Re: OManipadmiommmmmmm....

Postby jato » Mon 07 Aug 2006, 17:46:29

Between 1971 and 1981 oil prices went up almost 10 times. From about $3 to 30/barrel:

Image

$20x10= $200/barrel
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Re: OManipadmiommmmmmm....

Postby Kingcoal » Mon 07 Aug 2006, 20:24:53

Wow, this is real old-time peak oil stuff. I remember back to my first post we were debating how the shtt was going to hit the fan when we hit $70/bl. Well we are here and still going. How does it look two years latter? No real discoveries worth mentioning and increasing demand. I'm now thinking $100/bl by January.
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Re: OManipadmiommmmmmm....

Postby eastbay » Tue 08 Aug 2006, 00:39:02

Impermanence.

Impermanence clearly demonstrated for all.

O mani padme hom indeed!!!
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Re: OManipadmiommmmmmm....

Postby Doly » Tue 08 Aug 2006, 06:12:44

The trend is exponential and volatile, just as expected.

The question now is: when does the exponential curve break? Because it can't hold on forever.

And at the point it breaks, the economy of the West breaks too.
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Re: OManipadmiommmmmmm....

Postby MrBill » Tue 08 Aug 2006, 08:33:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', 'T')he trend is exponential and volatile, just as expected.

The question now is: when does the exponential curve break? Because it can't hold on forever.

And at the point it breaks, the economy of the West breaks too.

Ah, you say the West, I say the global economy.
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Re: OManipadmiommmmmmm....

Postby Battle_Scarred_Galactico » Thu 10 Aug 2006, 06:18:01

Don't worry, the market signals will kick in any minute now. Because that theory isn't bullshit at all.
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Re: OManipadmiommmmmmm....

Postby MrBill » Thu 10 Aug 2006, 08:05:02

Umm, market signals?

If your income is the stagnant and the dollar is lower, interest rates are higher, inflation is rising, housing prices are declining, household debt is expanding and the cost of crude has increased 500% what is the market telling you?

It is saying, consume less, save more!! What are some people deaf, dumb and blind?

The Pledge of Consumerism: I hereby pledge to consume the maximum amount of junk I cannot afford regardless of what may happen to the economy until someone puts a bullet in the back of my head because I am so stupid I cannot interpret market signals.

Everyone is to blame. The economists, the politicians, the oil company, the media, the marketers, the retailers.... everyone exept the idiot consumer pulling the debt/consumption trigger.

Now repeat after me. "This is not a drill. This is a real emergency. Slowly, calmy, put down your credit card. Park your SUV. Stop spending. Breathe deeply. Save your strength. It's going to be okay. Just have to stop buying, pay down debt and save. There, easy now."
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Re: OManipadmiommmmmmm....

Postby loveandrage » Fri 11 Aug 2006, 12:04:14

"The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense."

That someone else is our great grand-children.
The future.
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Re: OManipadmiommmmmmm....

Postby rwwff » Fri 11 Aug 2006, 12:24:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'U')mm, market signals?

If your income is the stagnant and the dollar is lower, interest rates are higher, inflation is rising, housing prices are declining, household debt is expanding and the cost of crude has increased 500% what is the market telling you?

I hate to do this.... but.

Incomes are not particularly stagnant, relative to inflation and historical norms.
Interest rates are bottom of the barrel low.
Inflation is almost non existant.

It is true that they are moderately worse than they were a little while ago, but when the starting point is near zero, thats not saying much. Housing prices are still climbing, and most see it eventually just leveling off with some loss in liquidity, taking longer to sell, but at a stable price.

Household debt is expanding, but that expansion includes the value of those mortgages tied to property.

Crude is up only on short term, non inflation adusted charts. Look at a 30 year chart based in constant US2006 dollars and you will see crude is still quite a bit below previous maximums.

The dollar is not significantly lower with relation to the trading partners that count, China and Japan.

This is why market signals are not helping; because they are wet noodle limp.

I know lots of people here look for things to happen within a human observable, interesting way. But they aren't gonna, so just get used to it. The Long Emergency isn't a 6 month or 3 year excercise in agility; it'll be a 50 year economic period absolutely packed with wet-noodle signals. At the end, people will be paying $20 (US2006) per gallon of gasoline and feel that thats the way its always been. Sorta like grandpa's stories of nickel bus fairs, and two-bit lunches. Or walking five miles to school, in the snow, uphill, both ways.
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Re: OManipadmiommmmmmm....

Postby MrBill » Fri 11 Aug 2006, 14:19:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('loveandrage', '"')The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense."

That someone else is our great grand-children.
The future.


umm, yes, I guess that is why I keep this as my own reminder that there are no free lunches. The solutions will not come from governments are taxing away someone's profits. I think I use this signature for so long for a very specific reason. Thanks.
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Re: OManipadmiommmmmmm....

Postby MrBill » Fri 11 Aug 2006, 14:24:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rwwff', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'U')mm, market signals?

If your income is the stagnant and the dollar is lower, interest rates are higher, inflation is rising, housing prices are declining, household debt is expanding and the cost of crude has increased 500% what is the market telling you?

I hate to do this.... but.

Incomes are not particularly stagnant, relative to inflation and historical norms.
Interest rates are bottom of the barrel low.
Inflation is almost non existant.

It is true that they are moderately worse than they were a little while ago, but when the starting point is near zero, thats not saying much. Housing prices are still climbing, and most see it eventually just leveling off with some loss in liquidity, taking longer to sell, but at a stable price.

Household debt is expanding, but that expansion includes the value of those mortgages tied to property.

Crude is up only on short term, non inflation adusted charts. Look at a 30 year chart based in constant US2006 dollars and you will see crude is still quite a bit below previous maximums.

The dollar is not significantly lower with relation to the trading partners that count, China and Japan.

This is why market signals are not helping; because they are wet noodle limp.

I know lots of people here look for things to happen within a human observable, interesting way. But they aren't gonna, so just get used to it. The Long Emergency isn't a 6 month or 3 year excercise in agility; it'll be a 50 year economic period absolutely packed with wet-noodle signals. At the end, people will be paying $20 (US2006) per gallon of gasoline and feel that thats the way its always been. Sorta like grandpa's stories of nickel bus fairs, and two-bit lunches. Or walking five miles to school, in the snow, uphill, both ways.


Umm, I hate to point this out, but I know! Notice how each statement is true, but you felt compelled to qualify each one? That is the way it is. Everything is relative. But there is no way you can twist the number to read inflation is lower, the dollar is stronger, the trade deficit is lower, the economy is or will expand going forward.... if nothing else, maybe, finally, some posters are starting to question what is written on these pages by questioning the underlying assumptions? Thank you!!
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Re: OManipadmiommmmmmm....

Postby rwwff » Sat 12 Aug 2006, 01:13:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'U')mm, I hate to point this out, but I know! Notice how each statement is true, but you felt compelled to qualify each one? That is the way it is. Everything is relative. But there is no way you can twist the number to read inflation is lower, the dollar is stronger, the trade deficit is lower, the economy is or will expand going forward.... if nothing else, maybe, finally, some posters are starting to question what is written on these pages by questioning the underlying assumptions? Thank you!!


I've been thinking about this most of the day.... Why does my brain keep spitting out "post-bubble Japan". Problem is, I don't want to go "post-bubble Japan".

Inflation is currently trivial, but it feels aweful.
Interest rates are negligible but all we hear is fear of hikes.
Unemployment is below 5% but everyone feels the job market sucks.

I just have this wierd sense that within the past month or two, a huge heard of upper middle class people added up all their loans, then looked at their properties in the middle of the night while no one was watching, and said to themselves, "dang, there's no way in x that house, condo, whatever is worth that." Then the real moment of truth came later that night, when they sat down in front of their computers at home, brought up quicken, and couldn't bring themselves to click "reconcile" on their real estate account.

"Jamie, you remember when Donald Trump was laughing about being negative... I don't think he was laughing after he went inside."

At least with Japan, they had sub $20 oil for a while to help pull them out, along with a ramping up Chinese economy next door. Somehow, Mexico just doesn't strike me as the next industrial widget capital of the world.

Dang.
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Re: OManipadmiommmmmmm....

Postby Aaron » Sat 12 Aug 2006, 11:58:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')orta like grandpa's stories of nickel bus fairs, and two-bit lunches. Or walking five miles to school, in the snow, uphill, both ways.


Great freakin post...

The difference being that in grandpa's day, they didn't face long-term rising energy poverty, or the prospect of a billion new Chinese consumers & their Indian dopplegangers.

I'm beginning to suspect that the reason we have not been contacted by extraterrestrial life yet, is because we are the stars of the Galactic equivalent of a reality TV show. Put 7 billion humans in a steel cage that only holds 2 billion... hilarity ensues.

"Will mankind solve their dilemma by invention or by bloodshed? Tune in next cycle for the exciting conclusion of... Earth: Eaten Alive II"
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Re: OManipadmiommmmmmm....

Postby MrBill » Sat 12 Aug 2006, 12:55:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rwwff', '
')
I've been thinking about this most of the day.... Why does my brain keep spitting out "post-bubble Japan". Problem is, I don't want to go "post-bubble Japan".

Inflation is currently trivial, but it feels aweful.
Interest rates are negligible but all we hear is fear of hikes.
Unemployment is below 5% but everyone feels the job market sucks.

I just have this wierd sense that within the past month or two, a huge heard of upper middle class people added up all their loans, then looked at their properties in the middle of the night while no one was watching, and said to themselves, "dang, there's no way in x that house, condo, whatever is worth that." Then the real moment of truth came later that night, when they sat down in front of their computers at home, brought up quicken, and couldn't bring themselves to click "reconcile" on their real estate account.

"Jamie, you remember when Donald Trump was laughing about being negative... I don't think he was laughing after he went inside."

At least with Japan, they had sub $20 oil for a while to help pull them out, along with a ramping up Chinese economy next door. Somehow, Mexico just doesn't strike me as the next industrial widget capital of the world.

Dang.


Dude, I feel your pain. It sucks. Along with the Donald Trumps and wannabees the coming recession will wipe out honest people's savings and those nest eggs carefully saved for retirement. Free trade means nothing without fair trade. The US has been had even if they brought it upon themselves. But those like McEggs Bentsen or Kenneth 'I popped my own cork' Lay to save my kids' their inheritance will not be around to pay for this fiasco. They never are. Against the backdrop of peak oil it is almost too depressing to contemplate. Therefore, I will leave it alone and sign-in on Monday. No use being depressed on the weekend! Cheers.
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Re: OManipadmiommmmmmm....

Postby Concerned » Sat 12 Aug 2006, 17:31:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '
')Dude, I feel your pain. It sucks. Along with the Donald Trumps and wannabees the coming recession will wipe out honest people's savings and those nest eggs carefully saved for retirement. Free trade means nothing without fair trade. The US has been had even if they brought it upon themselves. But those like McEggs Bentsen or Kenneth 'I popped my own cork' Lay to save my kids' their inheritance will not be around to pay for this fiasco. They never are. Against the backdrop of peak oil it is almost too depressing to contemplate. Therefore, I will leave it alone and sign-in on Monday. No use being depressed on the weekend! Cheers.


The US has had a great run for 400 years and really who knows might have a darn good run left in it yet !

Was fun when "free trade" meant that you got to exploit people in Nicaragua, Indonesia, Mexico, China or some other 3rd world hell hole all the while patting yourself on the back about how great you are and you know "helping" all those people with those great jobs.

The whole we "think" they "work" paradigm. LOL

Who would have thought that by artifically keeping their currency low to garner a competitive advantage the Chinese could tie themself into a symbiotic death grip with the US consumer. Add a good dallop of Peak Oil and climate change. Ahhh yes we humans as a species are truly arriving at our manifest destiny and how great we are :)

Oh :!: I'm buying a new home with a small easily managed mortgage on a long term fixed rate. If I lose my job we're screwed but I'll roll with the punches as best I can. Can't worry too much about things you have no immediate control over. If the oceans rise as much as some of the more pessimistic scenarios on climate change my suburb will be an Atlantis style development 8O , wonder if that will increase it's value. :lol:

My advice is do what you know is right and enjoy each day. As Marshall Silver says "live with passion."
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Re: OManipadmiommmmmmm....

Postby MrBill » Tue 15 Aug 2006, 09:45:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he whole we "think" they "work" paradigm. LOL


HAHA! I like that. May I use it? ; - )
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Re: OManipadmiommmmmmm....

Postby Concerned » Thu 17 Aug 2006, 17:10:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he whole we "think" they "work" paradigm. LOL


HAHA! I like that. May I use it? ; - )


Absoloutely. I've stolen it from The Daily Reckoning or The Rude Awakening gave me a good chuckle when I read it :)

You know it's tragic that leaders in high places could convince themsleves that the Chinese would be too "dumb" to eventually "think".

My view is that we are just starting to see what all those engineering graduates and PHD's can come up with, (gadget wise).

The miracle will be if China can convert its economy to something more energy sustainable and wind back their environmental distress.
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