by MrBill » Fri 11 Aug 2006, 14:24:01
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rwwff', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'U')mm, market signals?
If your income is the stagnant and the dollar is lower, interest rates are higher, inflation is rising, housing prices are declining, household debt is expanding and the cost of crude has increased 500% what is the market telling you?
I hate to do this.... but.
Incomes are not particularly stagnant, relative to inflation and historical norms.
Interest rates are bottom of the barrel low.
Inflation is almost non existant.
It is true that they are moderately worse than they were a little while ago, but when the starting point is near zero, thats not saying much. Housing prices are still climbing, and most see it eventually just leveling off with some loss in liquidity, taking longer to sell, but at a stable price.
Household debt is expanding, but that expansion includes the value of those mortgages tied to property.
Crude is up only on short term, non inflation adusted charts. Look at a 30 year chart based in constant US2006 dollars and you will see crude is still quite a bit below previous maximums.
The dollar is not significantly lower with relation to the trading partners that count, China and Japan.
This is why market signals are not helping; because they are wet noodle limp.
I know lots of people here look for things to happen within a human observable, interesting way. But they aren't gonna, so just get used to it. The Long Emergency isn't a 6 month or 3 year excercise in agility; it'll be a 50 year economic period absolutely packed with wet-noodle signals. At the end, people will be paying $20 (US2006) per gallon of gasoline and feel that thats the way its always been. Sorta like grandpa's stories of nickel bus fairs, and two-bit lunches. Or walking five miles to school, in the snow, uphill, both ways.
Umm, I hate to point this out, but I know! Notice how each statement is true, but you felt compelled to qualify each one? That is the way it is. Everything is relative. But there is no way you can twist the number to read inflation is lower, the dollar is stronger, the trade deficit is lower, the economy is or will expand going forward.... if nothing else, maybe, finally, some posters are starting to question what is written on these pages by questioning the underlying assumptions? Thank you!!