Discuss research and forecasts regarding hydrocarbon depletion.
by MonteQuest » Sat 05 Aug 2006, 23:49:32
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('omgwtfbyobbq', 'T')he only problem with Jevon's paradox is that it ignores the idea that excess consumption is encouraged by those who control the resource in order to maximise profit.
So, we outlaw advertising? Capitalism?
Jevon's Paradox looks at the free market system and observed reality.
Put something on sale and people will buy more of it.
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by omgwtfbyobbq » Sun 06 Aug 2006, 01:04:29
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'S')o, we outlaw advertising? Capitalism?
Jevon's Paradox looks at the free market system and observed reality.
Put something on sale and people will buy more of it.
There is no such thing as a free market system strictly speaking. We live in facist states, where corporations influence government. We do not have "Capitalism" either, "Socialism" is more like it. In our economic system corporations can easily influence the use of their products outside of the business sphere.
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by MonteQuest » Sun 06 Aug 2006, 01:44:54
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('omgwtfbyobbq', ' ')There is no such thing as a free market system strictly speaking.
And since we are not "strictly speaking"; put something on sale and people will buy more of it. Nit-picking definitions does not regate reality, nor 150 years of empirical data to support it.
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by omgwtfbyobbq » Sun 06 Aug 2006, 01:57:38
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'A')nd since we are not "strictly speaking"; put something on sale and people will buy more of it. Nit-picking definitions does not regate reality, nor 150 years of empirical data to support it.
This is a straw man argument. I never stated that if something were put on sale people wouldn't buy more of it. You however, stated
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'J')evon's Paradox looks at the free market system and observed reality.
So I ask you, how can Jevon's paradox observe a reality based on an ideal system such as the "free market" that has never existed? Since the "free market" cannot exist, any use of it to justify the existence of Jevon's paradox is not logical.
Will you please refrain from straw man attacks? Thanks you.
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by MonteQuest » Sun 06 Aug 2006, 02:21:30
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('omgwtfbyobbq', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'A')nd since we are not "strictly speaking"; put something on sale and people will buy more of it. Nit-picking definitions does not regate reality, nor 150 years of empirical data to support it.
This is a straw man argument. I never stated that if something were put on sale people wouldn't buy more of it. You however, stated
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'J')evon's Paradox looks at the free market system and observed reality.
So I ask you, how can Jevon's paradox observe a reality based on an ideal system such as the "free market" that has never existed? Since the "free market" cannot exist, any use of it to justify the existence of Jevon's paradox is not logical.
Will you please refrain from straw man attacks? Thanks you.
I never use strawman attacks, thank you. "A straw man argument is a logical fallacy based on misrepresentation of an opponent's position. To "set up a straw man" or "set up a straw-man argument" is to create a position that is easy to refute, then attribute that position to the opponent."
Since I did no such thing, what are earth are you talking about? Your position is:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he only problem with Jevon's paradox is that it ignores the idea that excess consumption is encouraged by those who control the resource in order to maximise profit.
I answered:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'J')evon's Paradox looks at the free market system and observed reality.
You chose to question something that is quite moot.
Jevon's Paradox is not a prediction or a forecast, but an observation of reality. Whether the free market systems exists ideally is moot. It exists enough to generate the empirical data that supports Jevon's Paradox.
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by MonteQuest » Sun 06 Aug 2006, 02:29:26
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('omgwtfbyobbq', ' ')So I ask you, how can Jevon's paradox observe a reality based on an ideal system such as the "free market" that has never existed? Since the "free market" cannot exist, any use of it to justify the existence of Jevon's paradox is not logical.
Easy. With more efficient lighting; we installed more of them. With better gas mileage; we built SUV’s. With better heating and cooling, we built larger homes.
Jevon's Paradox would not exist without the observations of reality of efficieincy gains in a free market,
however ideal or not it may be.
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by omgwtfbyobbq » Sun 06 Aug 2006, 02:55:28
Listing instances is just that, but it's not exactly useful when discussing something like Jevon's paradox. It's best to define what we're talking about, otherwise there's no point in talking about it because we don't know if we're talking about the same thing.
From what I've gathered, Jevon's paradox states that any the use of any finite resource increases with efficiency, correct? Now here's where I run into a problem, which I hope you can resolve.
-What is a resource?
-Over what time period is use considered to take place?
-Is the increase in use brought about by the increase in efficiency over time monotonic? Or does an increase in use simply consitute a single measure of use in the future that's greater then the use in the present, provided efficiency has increased of course.
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by DrChaos » Sun 06 Aug 2006, 03:27:09
With increased efficiency, Japanese drive more efficient cars, and as far as I am aware, they don't drive two or three of them at a time.
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by Aaron » Sun 06 Aug 2006, 07:45:56
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DrChaos', 'W')ith increased efficiency, Japanese drive more efficient cars, and as far as I am aware, they don't drive two or three of them at a time.
You didn't read this thread first did ya?
1st page, 1st post...
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he introduction of more energy-efficient automobiles in this country in the 1970s did not curtail the demand for fuel because driving increased and the number of cars on the road soon doubled.
The problem is, of course, that not only is economics bankrupt, but it has always been nothing more than politics in disguise... economics is a form of brain damage.
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by MonteQuest » Sun 06 Aug 2006, 12:13:45
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('omgwtfbyobbq', 'L')isting instances is just that, but it's not exactly useful when discussing something like Jevon's paradox.
Empirical observations of the cause and effect of efficiency gains leads to this conclusion:
“To the extent you make any useful commodity more affordable, you encourage it's consumption by that same margin.“
The examples I listed support that conclusion.
Resource? Any consumable commodity subject to supply and demand in a free market.
Time period? Don't' follow the relevancy.
Monotonic? We have 150 years of empirical data to say that, yes, it is.
As to the last question...care to rephrase? Doesn't make sense.
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by Aimrehtopyh » Sun 06 Aug 2006, 12:24:32
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('omgwtfbyobbq', 'F')rom what I've gathered, Jevon's paradox states that any the use of any finite resource increases with efficiency, correct? Now here's where I run into a problem, which I hope you can resolve.
-What is a resource?
Pretty much any useful material you can name. The best "jevon resource" is one that acts as an "economic catalyst". The quantity need not be finite, but the paradox isn't very worrysome if it's infinite.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')-Over what time period is use considered to take place?
An efficiency mutation in bacteria could yield huge effects in minutes. It took
steam ships about 150 years to fully supplant
sailing ships.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '-')Is the increase in use brought about by the increase in efficiency over time monotonic? Or does an increase in use simply consitute a single measure of use in the future that's greater then the use in the present, provided efficiency has increased of course.
The potency of the increase would depend on the environment that the economy is expanding into and the attrition rate for the old inefficient equipment. If new business opportunities blanket the landscape (think of the American Frontier) efficiency will speed general economic expansion. General economic expansion will lead to greater consumption volume.
If we're talking about an "old" economy then wholly new opportunities will pop up like whack-a-mole. Additionally; as old equipment wears out or obsoletes, the new and more efficient equipment will finally move in. This effect is much slower, but still powerful.
Expansion is the key to making the paradox really obvious. Efficiency gains (better affordability and productivity of a technology) mean that the technology will find it's way into more new business plans. More profit=more adopters=more consumption.
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by tsakach » Sun 06 Aug 2006, 14:15:43
After slogging through the equivalent of 1/2 semesters worth of Energy Economics 101, I feel like I have come to terms with Jevons paradox. This came up before somewhere in this thread, but a newer version of Jevon's Paradox exists known as the Khazzoom-Brookes postulate:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')Economic theory predicts, and the historical record for most of this century suggests, that increased energy efficiency at the microeconomic level while leading to a reduction of energy use at this level, leads not to a reduction, but instead to an increase in energy use, at the national, or macroeconomic level."
I prefer this postulate over Jevon's paradox, because it provides a more comprehensible description of the phenomenon. Not to mention that the name "Khazzoom-Brookes postulate" has a lively ring to it. I found this article useful in understanding it:
"Does Energy Efficiency Save Energy: The Implications of accepting the Khazzoom-Brookes Postulate.".
It is also interesting to read Brookes' discussion with the House of Lords on the subject:
http://www.publications.parliament.uk/p ... 020907.htm$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')People seem to be so hooked on using energy. It is almost like being an alcoholic."
Hmmm, this predates the "addicted to oil" concept.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')In general my position is that I would like to discourage the malign sources of fuel and encourage the benign ones."
I find Dr. Brookes use of the terms "malign" and "benign" particularly curious, because they are used to describe the course of a pathological disease:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')athology.
1. Threatening to life; virulent: a malignant disease.
2. Tending to metastasize; cancerous. Used of a tumor.
One way to view the Khazzoom-Brookes postulate is to consider what is at stake here. The culture of unbounded consumption resembles that of a cancerous, life threating disease. It is a particularly virulent disease in that it possesses the ability to adapt and become more efficient at what it does. The more efficient the disease becomes the faster it grows, and the host is consumed at an exponential rate.
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by omgwtfbyobbq » Sun 06 Aug 2006, 21:50:12
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'I') never use strawman attacks, thank you. "A straw man argument is a logical fallacy based on misrepresentation of an opponent's position. To "set up a straw man" or "set up a straw-man argument" is to create a position that is easy to refute, then attribute that position to the opponent."
Since I did no such thing, what are earth are you talking about?
You stated
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'A')nd since we are not "strictly speaking";
put something on sale and people will buy more of it. Nit-picking definitions does not regate reality, nor 150 years of empirical data to support it.
I never stated that people would not buy more of something if it was put on sale. You responded by affirming a statement you made earlier, which I did not oppose. Either you enjoy repeating yourself or that was a strawman argument, if you enjoy repeating yourself I apologize. Otherwise, I would appreciate it if you will refrain from strawman attacks in the future.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'J')evon's Paradox is not a prediction or a forecast, but an observation of reality. Whether the free market systems exists ideally is moot. It exists enough to generate the empirical data that supports Jevon's Paradox.
Since Jevon's Paradox is merely an observation, with no predictive power, per your statement. Anyone in this thread, including yourself, who states anything about what
will happen based on Jevon's paradox is in fact making a baseless statement, since Jevon's Paradox is not a prediction or forecast, per your statement. This whole thread is nothing but idle speculation if your statement is accurate.
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by MonteQuest » Sun 06 Aug 2006, 22:15:28
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('omgwtfbyobbq', 'I') never stated that people would not buy more of something if it was put on sale. You responded by affirming a statement you made earlier, which I did not oppose.
I never said you did. Your argument was that the free market was not ideal, strictly speaking, and that Jevon's Paradox doesn't consider that excess consumption is encouraged by those who control the resource. I countered that since we aren't strictly speaking with regard to the free market; put something on sale and people will buy more of it. That is observed reality no matter who or what influences the market. Jevon's does apply and does consider what you said it does not.
That is not a strawman. You just didn't follow the point.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'J')evon's Paradox is not a prediction or a forecast, but an observation of reality. Whether the free market systems exists ideally is moot. It exists enough to generate the empirical data that supports Jevon's Paradox.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')ince Jevon's Paradox is merely an observation, with no predictive power, per your statement. Anyone in this thread, including yourself, who states anything about what
will happen based on Jevon's paradox is in fact making a baseless statement, since Jevon's Paradox is not a prediction or forecast, per your statement. This whole thread is nothing but idle speculation if your statement is accurate.
Does your mind really think this way? Since Jevon's Paradox came about as the result of observation, and that observation can, and has been repeated for over 150 years, it most certainly can be a predictive power.
When I say it is not a prediction, I mean it is not an unproven theory or forecast of things to come. Jevon's Paradox wouldn't exist if not for observed reality following efficieincy gains...whether or not the free market is ideal is moot. It doesn't change observed reality. If I wasn't clear, then ask for clarification. To post what you did seems to be a useless rejoinder.
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by omgwtfbyobbq » Sun 06 Aug 2006, 22:31:25
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', ']')Does your mind really think this way? Since Jevon's Paradox came about as the result of observation, and that observation can, and has been repeated for over 150 years, it most certainly can be a predictive power.
When I say it is not a prediction, I mean it is not an unproven theory or forecast of things to come. Jevon's Paradox wouldn't exist if not for observed reality following efficieincy gains. If I wasn't clear, then ask for clarification. To post what you did seems to be a useless rejoinder.
Yes, my mind does. Any theory can be a predictive power, however, unless a theory is proven logically, it may or may not be accurate. You also state it can be a predictive power, but is not a forecast of things to come, these seem contradictory, could you elaborate?
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by tsakach » Sun 06 Aug 2006, 22:42:02
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'W')hen I say it is not a prediction, I mean it is not an unproven theory or forecast of things to come.
Is Jevon's Paradox a proven theory? The Khazzoom-Brookes postulate states up front that it is a postulate, or unproven assertion that is assumed to be self-evident.
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tsakach on Sun 06 Aug 2006, 22:46:51, edited 1 time in total.
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by MonteQuest » Sun 06 Aug 2006, 22:42:12
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('omgwtfbyobbq', ' ')Yes, my mind does. Any theory can be a predictive power, however, unless a theory is proven logically, it may or may not be accurate. You also state it can be a predictive power, but is not a forecast of things to come, these seem contradictory, could you elaborate?
I said it was not an unproven theory or forecast. Both are proven.
What is the contradiction?
Maybe I need to go back to this:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('omgwtfbyobbq', 'T')he only problem with Jevon's paradox is that it ignores the idea that excess consumption is encouraged by those who control the resource in order to maximise profit.
So, we outlaw advertising? Capitalism?
Jevon's Paradox looks at the free market system and observed reality.
Put something on sale and people will buy more of it.
What you seem to fail to grasp is that it matters not what causes the increase in consumption, lower price (Jevon's) or advertising or corporate greed (what you say Jevon's ignores) use of a commodity still increases as a result of efficiency gains.
The free market, advertising, and corporate greed are not going away anytime soon. And as long as they exist, so will Jevon's Paradox.
Conservation and efficiency gains are not solutions to peak oil and will not reduce energy use.
Some will grasp this and others will not.
Last edited by
MonteQuest on Sun 06 Aug 2006, 22:48:23, edited 1 time in total.
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by MonteQuest » Sun 06 Aug 2006, 22:45:52
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('tsakach', ' ')Is Jevon's Paradox a proven theory?
We have 150 years of empirical data that says it is.
I just posted the most recent data from the last energy crisis that brought about efficiency gains.
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by omgwtfbyobbq » Sun 06 Aug 2006, 22:52:46
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'I') said it was not an unproven theory or forecast. Both are proven.
Where?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'W')hat is the contradiction?
You stated
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'i')t... can be a predictive power
And
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'i')t is not [a]... forecast of things to come.
Forecast and prediction are synonyms. So you are stating that it can be predictive, but it is not a forecast. It is A, but it is not A. A contradiction. You don't seem to grasp logic.
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omgwtfbyobbq on Sun 06 Aug 2006, 23:06:29, edited 1 time in total.
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by tsakach » Sun 06 Aug 2006, 23:02:36
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('tsakach', ' ')Is Jevon's Paradox a proven theory?
We have 150 years of empirical data that says it is.
A proof is a logical argument, not an empirical one. Asserting that "We have 150 years of empirical data that says it is." does not constitute a proof. It would be more accurate to describe Jevons Paradox as a postulate rather than a proven theory.
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