[madrid]

Half of my family lives in Italy, and some in this thread are wrong to say that all gov'ts everywhere are not preparing/ have not prepared for peak oil.

Continental Europe has been preparing obsessively since the oil shocks of the 70's. The first thing they did was institute very high gas taxes in order to discourage driving. They have been building mass transit, even in relatively poorer countries such as Spain and Portugal.

They have maintained enormous numbers of farms, some of which are a huge drain on the economy in a period of time in which oil has been abundant. In other words, this preservation of farms made no sense within the paradigm of free global trade. It only made sense as preparation when there would be no more global trade.

They have largely maintained walking cities and communities. Sometimes they have done this under the guise of preserving the land for agro-tourism, but if you talk to someone in the Italian armed forces, you will find out that the main reason was to be able to grow food locally.

Most of their big highways were maintained using hugely expensive tolls so that government money was not wasted maintaining them.

In short, Europe is prepared for this, and more than Europe in general, France is incredibly well-prepared, with 80-90 percent of electricity powered by Nuclear energy.

[madrid]

What Peak Oil is going to teach America is similar to what the old Soviet countries were taught with the breakdown caused by communist ideology. IN this case, we are going to find out that strenuous attempts at remaining true to one economic ideology, in this case the free-market or neo-liberal ideology, is going to have horrible and disastrous effects.

Europe is going to do better in this crisis precisely because they were pragmatic when pragmatism was warranted. They never held themselves to one and only one ideology.

One other thing-- even though in today's relatively oil abundant economy, in which it is cheaper to ship goods thousands of miles from China, Europe has largely maintainted its manufacturing base.

They have kept immigrants out of the country, so their communities will not have to deal with the fragmentation that will be inevitable here.

They also don't have the number of guns that Americans have.

IN almost every area of concern, they have secured themselves against the anarchy that is likely to erupt in this country.

[grillzilla]

Madrid

You misunderestimate the ingenuity of the American people !!!

While we may be running short of gasoline we have a 200 year supply of ammuntion!!

as soon as oil becomes too expensive we will begin converting our SUV's to MACHINE GUN POWER!!! hahahahaa

the illegal aliens in the US will be hired to help us load the backs of our SUV's with bullets to be fired as reaction mass!!

of course only those with armored vehicals will survive but that is capitalism at its social darwinist BEST

[Battle_Scarred_Galactico]

They have kept immigrants out of the country, so their communities will not have to deal with the fragmentation that will be inevitable here.


As far as the UK is concerned, that couldn't be further from the truth.

[Doly]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('madrid', '
')They have kept immigrants out of the country, so their communities will not have to deal with the fragmentation that will be inevitable here.

[SoothSayer]

>> They have kept immigrants out of the country, so their communities will not have to deal with the fragmentation that will be inevitable here.
>> They also don't have the number of guns that Americans have.
>> IN almost every area of concern, they have secured themselves against the anarchy that is likely to erupt in this country.

Ha ha.

Europe is almost sure to erupt into a Balkans like conflict between Moslems & "the rest" sometime in the next 20 years ... Peak Oil or not.

I used to work in an office block in a Moslem area of a major British city.
About 20 of the non-Moslems at work had a plan to escape the offices & local area should street riotings & beheadings become a risk.

This is NOT a joke - and these were otherwise normal sensible people ... not nutters. They just wanted to stay safe. This is the truth of Europe today.

[madrid]

1) the UK does not consider itself part of Europe and nor do most people on the continent. Notice though that just to clarify, I used the term Continental Europe to be sure to exclude the UK. In my opinion, the UK is in pretty much in the same if not a worse situation as/than the US.

2) Yes there are immigrants in France and Spain and Germany. France has the highest immigrant population in Europe, but it is still only 6%. Compare that to the US or the UK.

3) I want to clarify that I am not anti-immigrant. Western powers have pillaged third world resources for centuries, and we are responsible for tons of destruction, from the middle-east to Africa to East Asia to Latin America. And I understand that it makes sense given this history to let the poor of these regions settle in Western countries. When I speak of how Europe has kept its immigrant population comparatively low (compared to US and UK), I am simply speaking objectively that countries which are more uniform probably have an advantage when resources are scarce.

[Battle_Scarred_Galactico]

1) the UK does not consider itself part of Europe and nor do most people on the continent.

You're correct on most of your points, but I really wish this one were true as maybe then we'd be left to Govern ourselves.

[rwwff]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'P')eak Oil is known to politicians, especially in the US where there have been many presentations to Congress by Roscoe Bartlett.

[gigacannon]

It's one thing to say that 'our' way of life is at an end. It's quite another to say that life itself is at an end.

Britain survived two world Wars, and went from being an Industrial, coal-based nation in 1911 to being a modern, petroleum based nation in 2005 with a population change of approximately 20 million people. Europe has a massive food surplus; there's no chance, I think, that we'll see 'mass starvation' in Britain, or the rest of Europe. If you look at the 'overpopulated' areas of the world, they each tell a different story.

China, with its one child policy, even poorly implemented as I think it is, will have an extremely aged population by the year 2050. Global warming may very well disrupt production of food (i.e. rice, fish), which would possibly lead to mass starvation, particularly among the elderly. On the other hand, with the completion of the Three Gorges Dam, and a deliberate effort to construct electrically-driven transport network, China could well survive the peak oil crash relatively intact. Don't forget that China is still a developing country, so it has the luxury of being able to pick a sustainable economy. This economy must be built, for now, with oil.

India shows some, but not many signs of slowing its birth rate. It's a very dense country, and one which may suffer terriblly because of effects of global warming. If India is to survive the peak oil crash, then it needs to become far more organised; as an undeveloped democracy, it neither has the ability to focus political will to enact massive new sustainable development projects, nor does it have the infrastructure or wealth to go ahead on a massive scale. I don't think that India will survive well.

And what about Africa? Africa is in a terrible state, and shows us important things; lack of an economy and overpopulation in one place does not necessarily mean so elsewhere, and it also shows us what, potentially, the next fifty years might have in store for the rest of us.

So what I'm trying to say is that there is room to consider that whilst changes are needed, and things will probably be worse, it's not going to necessarily spell death for everyone.

[Ludi]

Not many people think Peak Oil spells "death for everyone." Many people think it will spell hardship for most people and death for the poor.

[BigTex]

Recently I heard Bill Clinton make a comment about never being briefed on PO while he was President. I was surprised to hear this because love him or hate him he is a pretty smart guy. If he really didn't hear about it is president, then maybe there isn't a conspiracy of silence. Maybe it's more a conspiracy of ignorance.

[ClubOfRomeII]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', ' ') If he really didn't hear about it is president, then maybe there isn't a conspiracy of silence. Maybe it's more a conspiracy of ignorance.

[katkinkate]

They're ignorant. The politicians aren't experts. They rely on expert advisors who may or may not have agendas of their own. Also most experts are only knowledgeable in their own specialty, and have no more information in other areas than most of the general public. And all humans tend to expect and prefer the status quo to continue pretty much as it is going now. Radical ideas, ideas that endanger the status quo, are considered insane and are resisted - sometimes violently.

[ClubOfRomeII]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('katkinkate', ' ')Radical ideas, ideas that endanger the status quo, are considered insane and are resisted - sometimes violently.

[kokoda]

I am pretty sure that most polititians and business leaders are aware of peak oil and its implications.

One problem is that nobody really knows exactly when peal oil will occur. I think most of the afore mentioned polititians and business leaders are simply gambling that it will occur later than sooner.

A big gamble in my opinion.

From an economic point of view it is better to slowly move towards alterative fuel sources rather than to rush into it ... and this strategy could work ... if we have 20 years.

[ClubOfRomeII]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kokoda', 'I') am pretty sure that most polititians and business leaders are aware of peak oil and its implications.

[kokoda]

I wrote a letter to the Prime Minister's office (in Australia) that essentially asked if the government was aware of Peak Oil and its possible ramifications.

The reply I got back was a form letter (naturally) that informed me that the government was taking the matter seriously, it then went on to list a number of initiatives it was undertaking.

The overall feeling I got from the letter was that the government recognised that Peak Oil was potentially disasterous, both economically and socially. However most of its initiatives seemed to be timed to deal with the eventuality of oil production peaking post 2025.

In other words they are taking a gamble on when peak oil will occur. If it is around 2025 we may have a relatively soft landing. If it occurs sooner then that date then we crash and burn.

In my opinion governments should almost go on a war footing to find alternatives to our massive dependancy on fossil fuels. But convincing them, and the average tax payer, to foot the bill for the Hundreds of Billions of dollars that need to be spent to do that is another matter

[rwwff]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kokoda', 'I')n my opinion governments should almost go on a war footing to find alternatives to our massive dependancy on fossil fuels. But convincing them, and the average tax payer, to foot the bill for the Hundreds of Billions of dollars that need to be spent to do that is another matter

[Bandidoz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Wolfeyes', 'M')aybe somebody will help to fill this loop in my Peak Oil theory...........I can hardly believe it ... so ... any ideas ?