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THE S*** Hits the Fan (TSHTF) Thread (merged)

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: When Will TSHTF?

Postby mekrob » Fri 04 Aug 2006, 12:16:01

After I get a job?!?
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Re: When Will TSHTF?

Postby Concerned » Fri 04 Aug 2006, 12:24:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mmasters', 'W')hen's it gonna happen?


Don't know ask someone in a war zone or someone who's lost their job and can't fill their gas tank.
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Re: When Will TSHTF?

Postby skeptic » Fri 04 Aug 2006, 12:28:56

nobody knows.

blindfold yourself and try to stick the tail on the Donkey. Same sort of deal.
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Re: When Will TSHTF?

Postby mmasters » Fri 04 Aug 2006, 14:30:03

Vote VOTE VOTE :twisted:
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Re: When Will TSHTF?

Postby Eli » Fri 04 Aug 2006, 14:46:37

It is hitting the fan right now.
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Re: When Will TSHTF?

Postby marko » Fri 04 Aug 2006, 16:44:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Eli', 'I')t is hitting the fan right now.


The shit is certainly hitting the fan in Lebanon and Iraq, but not really yet in the United States. Life goes on here much as it has for the past 15 years or so, since the last major recession. Having Bush in the White House is alarming, but I don't think that it has affected daily life here in a profound way. I think "normalcy" also prevails in Europe, and things are looking up all around East Asia at the moment. Not even high oil prices have had a major effect on life in the more comfortable parts of the world.

I voted for 2008 because I think that the US economy (and with it, the global economy) will start to seriously deteriorate next year. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East can also only get worse in my view. By 2008, both China, with its boom now a bust, and the US, with millions of homeowners facing foreclosure, will be ripe for a war, which is the time-tested way for political leaders to distract their people from problems at home. A conveniently timed terrorist attack on the US could also provide a pretext for the neo-Cons to suspend the election and maintain their hold on power.

It's interesting that 2008 gets by far the most votes. Are others thinking along similar lines?
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Re: When Will TSHTF?

Postby rwwff » Fri 04 Aug 2006, 16:50:11

July 2035

And it will be very, very ugly.
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Re: When Will TSHTF?

Postby PrairieMule » Fri 04 Aug 2006, 16:58:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('marko', '
')
It's interesting that 2008 gets by far the most votes. Are others thinking along similar lines?


Well Marko I don't know if 2008 will be a tipping point like the end of 2001 was, but I do think 2 years from now we will be living in a very different America. One that most americans today could not believe would ever come to fruition.
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Re: When Will TSHTF?

Postby Zardoz » Fri 04 Aug 2006, 17:05:37

It will probably be a full four years before we're chronically short of oil and gas all the time. Until then we'll still be desperately trying to convince ourselves that it's only "temporary supply interruptions", "refinery maintenance bottlenecks", "political tensions", "free market restrictions", or "lack of investment" that is causing the problem.

By 2010 it should be undeniable that we're on the back side of the production curve, and the real panic will begin.
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Re: When Will TSHTF?

Postby Eli » Fri 04 Aug 2006, 17:27:04

Well Marko

I think depends on your definition of TSHTF.

The way I see it the US economy is already showing lots and lots of signs that it is sinking fast. Most people want to ignore what they are seeing.

GM and Ford have seen their losses double one or both of them are going to go under. Energy prices are high and will stay high. Real estate is tanking and unemployment is up. Inflation is on the rise.

It is as if we are all riding on the Titanic this big huge unsinkable ship. But the high oil prices have jostled us out of our beds we are all still carrying along like nothing has happened. There is a little bit of nervous murmuring going on here and there and some people are quietly edging to the life boats.

No one is panicking yet, but the majority of us have yet to realize that the wound the ship has sustained is mortal. After all the Captain and the crew have said there is nothing to be worried about and the orchestra is playing in the salon.

However, all too soon it will become obvious to everyone that something has gone horribly wrong. Then the panic and the terror will rise along with the icy cold waters.
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Re: When Will TSHTF?

Postby Pops » Fri 04 Aug 2006, 17:53:20

Why are you asking us?

It will be when you can't pay the rent and buy food, silly boy.

What are you doing about TSHingTF aside from typing on a discussion board?

Get your head out of your monitor and do something!
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Re: When Will TSHTF?

Postby rwwff » Fri 04 Aug 2006, 18:03:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Eli', 'R')eal estate is tanking and unemployment is up. Inflation is on the rise.


Our inflation and unemployment numbers are the envy of the effin world.

Course that just means the fall to the bottom is that much further.
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Re: When Will TSHTF?

Postby Tyler_JC » Fri 04 Aug 2006, 18:11:44

There is no such thing as TSHTF.

The reason being that there is no such thing as society or humanity or people or anything like that.

There is only you, me, and the rest of us individuals.

If we go into a depression but I have a job and can pay the bills for the next 30 years with a little extra money left over for entertainment, the sh*t never hit the fan.

If the economy grows at a 5% clip for the next 30 years but I can't find a job and end up on some kind of government relief program, I'll be miserable and for me, TSHTF.

I find it unsettling that someone can create a thread that is so vague and pointless as to be essentially devoid of content.

mmasters, I expected more out of someone that is working towards a law degree than:
"When's it gonna happen?"

Pops is right, what are you doing about it?
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Re: When Will TSHTF?

Postby mmasters » Fri 04 Aug 2006, 18:49:06

I was curious for the poll aspect, to see where the persepectives lie. I think most all of us can agree it's coming relatively soon.

Far as what I've been doing, gaining supplies, knowledge, investing, helping others and psychologically preparing. I got myself out of debt as well. I've also been contemplating steering my career path to more stable waters. I currently work on a trading floor managing internal data for a commercial bank and I'm thinking about moving into the multimedia/entertainment industry. Something like HBO or Viacom seems a good lifeboat. And it's not a law degree (god forbid), I was thinking of an MBA to increase my credentials. However, instead of going down that path I figured my time would be best spent doing part time work on the side to save extra money. Manhattan is an expensive place and my current job doesn't allow me to save a lot.

Aside from that I'm enjoying life as best I can.
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Re: When Will TSHTF?

Postby Tyler_JC » Fri 04 Aug 2006, 22:22:01

Please accept my apologies, mmasters. I confused you with another peakoiler.

Now I remember that thread you created a while back about getting an MBA.

Anyway, it sounds like you have a pretty decent plan...keep up the good work.
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Re: When Will TSHTF?

Postby Novus » Fri 04 Aug 2006, 23:54:26

I think things could unravel rather quickly in the next few months. Everything would have to go perfectly for there not be a problem in the next few months. No Hurricanes, no war with Iran, no civil war in Iraq, no more troubles in Nigeria, no cold weather this winter. Also the federal reserve has to do a delicate dance of fighting oil inflation without bursting the housing bubble. To me that seems to have already failed which means we could be in for a very deep recession like the recession of 1981 which it what happened the last time oil got this high. The differnce is now people don't have any savings they could fall back on.
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Re: When Will TSHTF?

Postby Zardoz » Sat 05 Aug 2006, 02:34:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '.')..do something!

"Something" in preparation for exactly what? Do you know what is going to happen? Do you know when it will happen? Do you know what will transpire after it happens?
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Re: When Will TSHTF?

Postby Zantarra » Sat 05 Aug 2006, 17:40:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Novus', 'n')o war with Iran


I don't think attacking Iran will happen before an attack is carried out on Syria. I read somewhere they signed a mutual-protection pact, meaning anyone fighting either have to fight both. And even without one of those, Syria would probably join in the fight if Iran was ever attacked, regardless. Iran on the other hand might try to buy more time (waiting for the other middle-eastern countries to join the fight, wrapping up their nuclear project, playing the oil-card, etc.) by sacrificing Syria.

Looking at a map of the Middle-East, attacking Syria first would make more sense as well. No point in spreading your troops thin if you can avoid it and with Lebanon getting steamrolled by Israel, you have Syria being clogged down between Iraq (the US) and Eastern Lebanon (Soon to be Greater Israel?)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Midd ... c_2003.jpg
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Re: When Will TSHTF?

Postby Pops » Sat 05 Aug 2006, 18:46:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mmasters', 'F')ar as what I've been doing,...
Aside from that I'm enjoying life as best I can.

There you go! Sorry for the tone, many times it seems folks want concrete answers to shifting sand questions. It looks like you are doing as many things for both the hard and soft outcomes as you can – what else can anyone do?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', '"')Something" in preparation for exactly what? Do you know what is going to happen? Do you know when it will happen? Do you know what will transpire after it happens?

No, do you?
If your answer is like mine does that mean we should do nothing?

Just a guess, but I guess PO (whenever it comes) means the cost of energy and everything dependant on that energy will continue to rise as it has over the last several years.

I think that indicates at least an examination of ones finances in that light, don’t you?

I don’t need a crystal ball to tell me exactly who will hit my vehicle from what direction and on what date to know that insurance is a good investment – even if I am never in an accident.
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Re: When Will TSHTF?

Postby mmasters » Sat 05 Aug 2006, 19:19:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '.')..do something!

"Something" in preparation for exactly what? Do you know what is going to happen? Do you know when it will happen? Do you know what will transpire after it happens?


Use your best judgement...prepare for likely outcomes, have a series of plans in place and adapt as necessary. All anyone can do really.
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