by 128shot » Sun 23 Jul 2006, 23:17:58
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('madmatt', ' ')If I can prove to you that you would have to be GOD to understand the implications of PO on our economy, then I believe we may be able to take the first step towards a little understanding.
What goes up must come down. The way our civilization and economic is structured is unsustainable whether peakoil happens or not. We are already seeing the law of the minimum, the law of diminishing returns, the laws of physics, the laws of thermodynamics, and the mathematical reality of exponetial growth rearing it's head.
You don't have to be God to connect these dots or grasp that there will be massive socio-economic upheaval as finite energy peaks in a infinite growth-based world.
What we don't know is what the ultimate recoverable reserves are (do the "paper barrels" exist or not) and we do not know what the rate of oil production decline will be.
But if the trend we are seeing from mature fields continues, it is a given that we will no longer be able to grow the economy and many activities will no longer be tenable due to cost. The gap between demand an supply will not be able to be closed and then raised 2 to 3% as required in time. We will have to go negative with growth and that will pull the house of cards down.
And if it is, it will just kick the imbalance correction down the road.
We can't continue as we are doing, but just less so or with more energy from
any soucre.
Look at the bronze age, everyone was using bronze, then we had a short supply of bronze, then we discovered iron.
So whats over the hump isn't totally predictable.