Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

What we MAY know about PO if we are really arsy!!!

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: What we MAY know about PO if we are really arsy!!!

Unread postby madmatt » Sun 23 Jul 2006, 08:31:07

Thankyou Lighthouse.

I will take that as a “YES” then.

Now.

My Grandfather always used to say to me:

“Before you read another authors works, you should first find out as much as you can about the author, before you even turn to the first page!”

He would then go on to say:

“If he is from the private sector - has he got a family and a large mortgage? If he is from the world of academia - is he currently applying for a research grant? If he is from the governmental sector - is he looking for a greater piece of the tax-payer’s dollar for his own department?”

He would then say:

“Therefore, you must first find out the angle from which the author is coming from!”

“Only a fool would read another mans works without knowing the man first!”

And then:

“If you can determine the true ethical foundation of the author, then you can make an informed decision as to if you want to consume his literary offerings. If you decide that his prerogatives are questionable, then you may save yourself a lot of time reading and consuming material that should never, ever, pass your lips!!!”

A very smart man my Grandfather.

Now.

What I propose, is that I will go away now, and find out as much as I can about this “Matt Saviner” character and then I will come back and present this information to you all on a silver platter.

I am your humble servant after all.

It may take up to a week. So please be patient with me!!!

I know we all have other things to do!!!

If we decide that his “ethical foundation is questionable”, then we may decide to move on to another author so that we don’t begin our discussions off on the wrong footing!!!

And.

Hey guys.

Let me just say that my intentions are genuine!!!

I am not here to waste time, but to learn some solid, useful, ethically and morally founded information about the PO issue!!!

And in this capitalist, consumerist, money hungry world – this is proving to be no mean feat!!!

But I truly am trying.

We are all in this together!!!

And.

I have never said in any of my posts that I do not believe we are running out of petroleum.

As a matter of fact -

I have always maintained that “YES, WE ARE RUNNING OUT OF OIL! BUT DO WE REALLY KNOW ANYTHING BEYOND THAT!!!”

That is my assertion!!!

I hope you guys will band together with me, egos aside, this is all too serious for egos, so that we can maybe get together some hard, proven, tested, facts and figures - data, not opinion! - so that we can indeed proceed to “Plan for the future of Peak Oil”.

Your potential friend and ally,

madmatt

PS – I’ll see you within a week (or 2) with all that info about “Matt Saviner” so that we can decide if we want to read his stuff or piss him off quick-smart for someone else more credible.

See you soon.
User avatar
madmatt
Wood
Wood
 
Posts: 23
Joined: Sun 16 Jul 2006, 03:00:00
Location: Australia

Re: What we MAY know about PO if we are really arsy!!!

Unread postby TheTurtle » Sun 23 Jul 2006, 08:51:07

I moved this here, because it certainly doesn't belong in the Planning forum.

(And I'm not even sure if it belongs here. :? )
“Humankind has not woven the web of life. We are but one thread within it. Whatever we do to the web, we do to ourselves.” (Ted Perry)
User avatar
TheTurtle
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1905
Joined: Sat 14 May 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Along the banks of the muddy Mississippi

Re: What we MAY know about PO if we are really arsy!!!

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sun 23 Jul 2006, 10:05:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('madmatt', ' ')If I can prove to you that you would have to be GOD to understand the implications of PO on our economy, then I believe we may be able to take the first step towards a little understanding.


What goes up must come down. The way our civilization and economic is structured is unsustainable whether peakoil happens or not. We are already seeing the law of the minimum, the law of diminishing returns, the laws of physics, the laws of thermodynamics, and the mathematical reality of exponetial growth rearing it's head.

You don't have to be God to connect these dots or grasp that there will be massive socio-economic upheaval as finite energy peaks in a infinite growth-based world.

What we don't know is what the ultimate recoverable reserves are (do the "paper barrels" exist or not) and we do not know what the rate of oil production decline will be.

But if the trend we are seeing from mature fields continues, it is a given that we will no longer be able to grow the economy and many activities will no longer be tenable due to cost. The gap between demand an supply will not be able to be closed and then raised 2 to 3% as required in time. We will have to go negative with growth and that will pull the house of cards down.

And if it is, it will just kick the imbalance correction down the road.

We can't continue as we are doing, but just less so or with more energy from any soucre.
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
User avatar
MonteQuest
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 16593
Joined: Mon 06 Sep 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Westboro, MO

Re: What we MAY know about PO if we are really arsy!!!

Unread postby Lighthouse » Sun 23 Jul 2006, 10:36:03

Madmatt, what exactly is it what you want to achieve?

Let's see if we can agree to the following:

PO is a fact. Oil is finite resource which will peak and eventually run out.

When did it or will it happen? What is or will be the impact on our society? And so on. My crystal ball is as good as yours. We are dealing with many complex chaotic systems which are interconnected.

So again, what is your outcome? A strategy for survival? A strategy for short term investments?
I am a sarcastic cynic. Some say I'm an asshole. Now that we have that out of the way ...
User avatar
Lighthouse
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1290
Joined: Thu 02 Mar 2006, 04:00:00

Re: What we MAY know about PO if we are really arsy!!!

Unread postby Zardoz » Sun 23 Jul 2006, 11:02:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NEOPO', '.')..Only you can convince you...

...Good night and good luck.

This may help him in his self-convincing:

Why we're not going to get away with this

I've lost track of the number of times I've posted this graphic, but I get the impression that you haven't seen it yet, so here it is once again. Study it and digest it. Coming to grips with the first part, and truly understanding what The Oil Age has meant to our species, is a crucial factor in your "journey".

What is going to happen to us as we run out of the life-sustaining resource? That nasty overlayed third part of the graphic is the likely scenario, I'm afraid. I've been studying this subject intently for the last year-and-a-half or so, and I haven't seen a damned thing that has even the slightest chance of getting us out of this.
"Thank you for attending the oil age. We're going to scrape what we can out of these tar pits in Alberta and then shut down the machines and turn out the lights. Goodnight." - seldom_seen
User avatar
Zardoz
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 6323
Joined: Fri 02 Dec 2005, 04:00:00
Location: Oil-addicted Southern Californucopia

Re: What we MAY know about PO if we are really arsy!!!

Unread postby mikeh433 » Sun 23 Jul 2006, 12:59:47

Just because I feel a little crabby about discomforts of preparations (and I'd like to see an apartment/city dweller topic), this here little invention enabled the large population increase alone, or so Buckminster Fuller said.

http://inventors.about.com/library/inve ... erator.htm

Speaking of this, I'd like to know if anyone knows of some little refrigeration device that could keep a closet like a root celler temperature of say 55 degrees constantly?

As long as refrigerators/freezers are around and have electricity to function, that will help alot.

Of course if I was in a different mood, I might argue oil stubbornly high prices, blackouts occurring now, precious metals in bull market, etc., but I'm not in that mood.
User avatar
mikeh433
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 204
Joined: Wed 25 Jan 2006, 04:00:00

Re: What we MAY know about PO if we are really arsy!!!

Unread postby Etalon » Sun 23 Jul 2006, 15:19:08

Im of the view that PO is a fact, and we dont really know whats going to happen aftarwards. So, you plan for the worst case (everything just stops) and go from there...

Im not quite sure what madmat is trying to prove.. maybe ive had a little too much of the vino, but I do agree that the person who claims to be able to predict the precise effects of PO probably knows less than the person who accepts his (or hers) limitations and admits to not knowing.
Etalon
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 106
Joined: Sun 04 Sep 2005, 03:00:00

Re: What we MAY know about PO if we are really arsy!!!

Unread postby Revi » Sun 23 Jul 2006, 23:03:38

We may not know exactly what will happen, but we have a bit of a glimpse of who will win the trifecta. Bet on the four horsemen. But even so, there is value in knowing what will happen, even if the future is bleak.
User avatar
Revi
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 7417
Joined: Mon 25 Apr 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Maine

Re: What we MAY know about PO if we are really arsy!!!

Unread postby 128shot » Sun 23 Jul 2006, 23:17:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('madmatt', ' ')If I can prove to you that you would have to be GOD to understand the implications of PO on our economy, then I believe we may be able to take the first step towards a little understanding.


What goes up must come down. The way our civilization and economic is structured is unsustainable whether peakoil happens or not. We are already seeing the law of the minimum, the law of diminishing returns, the laws of physics, the laws of thermodynamics, and the mathematical reality of exponetial growth rearing it's head.

You don't have to be God to connect these dots or grasp that there will be massive socio-economic upheaval as finite energy peaks in a infinite growth-based world.

What we don't know is what the ultimate recoverable reserves are (do the "paper barrels" exist or not) and we do not know what the rate of oil production decline will be.

But if the trend we are seeing from mature fields continues, it is a given that we will no longer be able to grow the economy and many activities will no longer be tenable due to cost. The gap between demand an supply will not be able to be closed and then raised 2 to 3% as required in time. We will have to go negative with growth and that will pull the house of cards down.

And if it is, it will just kick the imbalance correction down the road.

We can't continue as we are doing, but just less so or with more energy from any soucre.


Monte, I tend to look at it like this.

Look at the bronze age, everyone was using bronze, then we had a short supply of bronze, then we discovered iron.

So whats over the hump isn't totally predictable.
User avatar
128shot
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 303
Joined: Wed 18 Jan 2006, 04:00:00

Re: What we MAY know about PO if we are really arsy!!!

Unread postby rogerhb » Sun 23 Jul 2006, 23:28:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('128shot', 'M')onte, I tend to look at it like this.

Look at the bronze age, everyone was using bronze, then we had a short supply of bronze, then we discovered iron.

So whats over the hump isn't totally predictable.


Wrong, bronze didn't run out, iron was used because it was better. In past cases of a resource being superseeded, eg wood to coal, coal to oil it's because what replaced it was better.

Did the stone age end because we ran out of stone and found tin and copper in time?
"Complex problems have simple, easy to understand, wrong answers." - Henry Louis Mencken
User avatar
rogerhb
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 4727
Joined: Mon 06 Sep 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Smalltown New Zealand
Top

Re: What we MAY know about PO if we are really arsy!!!

Unread postby Chaparral » Mon 24 Jul 2006, 02:33:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('madmatt', ' ')fcukin blah blah blah......................what i really wanna do is reinvent the wheel that already exists and is known as peakoil.com and get the credit for it
??


So, exactly what are you egging us on to do that Aaron, Montequest et al haven't already facilitated here?
User avatar
Chaparral
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 767
Joined: Sun 14 Aug 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Dead civilization walking
Top

Re: What we MAY know about PO if we are really arsy!!!

Unread postby Ludi » Mon 24 Jul 2006, 18:31:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('128shot', '
')Look at the bronze age, everyone was using bronze, then we had a short supply of bronze, then we discovered iron.

So whats over the hump isn't totally predictable.


Oh. my. god.

Is this the way people really think???

We are SO doomed.......

(please, tell me it was a joke)

8O
Ludi
 
Top

Re: What we MAY know about PO if we are really arsy!!!

Unread postby Pops » Mon 24 Jul 2006, 19:40:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheTurtle', 'I') moved this here, because it certainly doesn't belong in the Planning forum.


Thanks Turtle.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
User avatar
Pops
Elite
Elite
 
Posts: 19746
Joined: Sat 03 Apr 2004, 04:00:00
Location: QuikSac for a 6-Pac
Top

Re: What we MAY know about PO if we are really arsy!!!

Unread postby MonteQuest » Mon 24 Jul 2006, 21:31:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('128shot', ' ')Monte, I tend to look at it like this.

Look at the bronze age, everyone was using bronze, then we had a short supply of bronze, then we discovered iron.

So whats over the hump isn't totally predictable.


No one I know of sees a "new oil" down the road. Oil may be the best and cheapest energy source we ever know.

What is predictable is that if the decline is steep enough, the only thing we will discover is just how much our way of life was built upon a foundation of sand.

Fusion? Perhaps, but with our mindset, we would just destroy the environment that much faster.

Besides, it doesn't matter. Continued growth is unsustainable under any energy regime.

We must powerdown, stop growth, and depopulate.
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
User avatar
MonteQuest
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 16593
Joined: Mon 06 Sep 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Westboro, MO
Top

Re: What we MAY know about PO if we are really arsy!!!

Unread postby 128shot » Mon 24 Jul 2006, 23:34:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('128shot', ' ')Monte, I tend to look at it like this.

Look at the bronze age, everyone was using bronze, then we had a short supply of bronze, then we discovered iron.

So whats over the hump isn't totally predictable.


No one I know of sees a "new oil" down the road. Oil may be the best and cheapest energy source we ever know.

What is predictable is that if the decline is steep enough, the only thing we will discover is just how much our way of life was built upon a foundation of sand.

Fusion? Perhaps, but with our mindset, we would just destroy the environment that much faster.

Besides, it doesn't matter. Continued growth is unsustainable under any energy regime.

We must powerdown, stop growth, and depopulate.



doesn't take a powerdown to de-populate the earth.


A diease, for example, could potentially wipe out as much as 1 billion people.

Then there is climate changes etc.

Just saying...

I general impression I get from you though, is you just hate people, and you don't care what does what, you would rather see the catasrophe than the continuation of the norm

(I'm still a skeptic, simply because alot of this is speculation and guess work)
User avatar
128shot
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 303
Joined: Wed 18 Jan 2006, 04:00:00
Top

Re: What we MAY know about PO if we are really arsy!!!

Unread postby rogerhb » Tue 25 Jul 2006, 00:05:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('128shot', 'I') general impression I get from you though, is you just hate people, and you don't care what does what, you would rather see the catasrophe than the continuation of the norm


Predicting something is not the same as wanting it. If you choose to jump off a tall building I predict you will go splat, doesn't mean I want that to happen, but follow the natural laws through and that's what you get.
"Complex problems have simple, easy to understand, wrong answers." - Henry Louis Mencken
User avatar
rogerhb
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 4727
Joined: Mon 06 Sep 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Smalltown New Zealand
Top

Re: What we MAY know about PO if we are really arsy!!!

Unread postby 128shot » Tue 25 Jul 2006, 00:48:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rogerhb', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('128shot', 'I') general impression I get from you though, is you just hate people, and you don't care what does what, you would rather see the catasrophe than the continuation of the norm


Predicting something is not the same as wanting it. If you choose to jump off a tall building I predict you will go splat, doesn't mean I want that to happen, but follow the natural laws through and that's what you get.



of course, thats assuming you didn't want me to jump off the building. If you wanted me to, you say "well, you'll die, and..."


From the looks of his posts, he just generally hates society as it is.


The consensus seems to be society has to be grinded to a hault either because you dislike humans, dislike society, or something else you can pull out of the bag.

I find very few people I talk to that are well within a knowledgable group that are concerned about peak oil are just concerned with peak oil.

Come on, when you mention powerdown and die off you either think peak oil will be absurdly twisted (I think this is a tad unrealistic, at least for now), or you hate society. Of course, I'm taking a step and saying we're talking about the worst of powerdowns and die offs, and not the potential famine affects etc


Even matthew simmions publicly stated on TV this is unlikely (In Minnesota, our news station WCCO did a 2 week long series about not just peak oil but american energy waste in general)


I'm playing a bit of an amateur psychologist here, I suppose. I personally am not shocked or bewildered about peak oil. Yet another fact of life for me...
User avatar
128shot
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 303
Joined: Wed 18 Jan 2006, 04:00:00
Top

Re: What we MAY know about PO if we are really arsy!!!

Unread postby rogerhb » Tue 25 Jul 2006, 03:26:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('128shot', 'T')he consensus seems to be society has to be grinded to a hault either because you dislike humans, dislike society, or something else you can pull out of the bag.


The theory goes that if there is a crash coming then the sooner it happens the less misery there will be as there will be less people to experience it.
"Complex problems have simple, easy to understand, wrong answers." - Henry Louis Mencken
User avatar
rogerhb
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 4727
Joined: Mon 06 Sep 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Smalltown New Zealand
Top

Re: What we MAY know about PO if we are really arsy!!!

Unread postby Doly » Tue 25 Jul 2006, 03:29:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rogerhb', '
')The theory goes that if there is a crash coming then the sooner it happens the less misery there will be as there will be less people to experience it.


I thought the theory was that the sooner it happens, the more likely to be a reasonably soft landing, as opposed to a hard crash.

Because as you state it, it doesn't make that much sense. You can't be that certain about population figures.
User avatar
Doly
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 4370
Joined: Fri 03 Dec 2004, 04:00:00
Top

Re: What we MAY know about PO if we are really arsy!!!

Unread postby 128shot » Tue 25 Jul 2006, 03:32:27

I'm open to most modest and realistic modes of preparing the soft landing and public awareness.


global powerdown and dieing off wasn't exactly on that list...
User avatar
128shot
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 303
Joined: Wed 18 Jan 2006, 04:00:00

PreviousNext

Return to Open Topic Discussion

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 12 guests