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PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

THE Steve Forbes / Forbes magazine Thread (merged)

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: Forbes: Oil, oil everywhere.

Unread postby advancedatheist » Mon 17 Jul 2006, 23:44:03

People found oil in all kinds of unexpectable places in the 1930's, way more than the market could have absorbed for many years, even though at the time the price for oil dropped so low because of the Great Depression that the oil companies almost had to give the stuff away. Why doesn't that happen now?
"There was a time before reason and science when my ancestors believed in all manner of nonsense." Narim on <I>Stargate SG-1</i>.
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Re: Forbes: Oil, oil everywhere.

Unread postby Geko45 » Tue 18 Jul 2006, 00:39:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')il, Oil Everywhere

Funny that the author should pick that title. That is a play on a line from a 19th centrury poem by Samuel Coleridge. The original line is:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ater, water everywhere, but not a drop to drink.

So to complete the analogy, we get:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')il, oil everywhere, but not a drop to burn.

Which is exactly the postion we are going to find ourselves quite soon. Plenty of oil in the ground, but no way to get it out (at least not fast enough).
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Re: Forbes: Oil, oil everywhere.

Unread postby peripato » Tue 18 Jul 2006, 01:07:30

Because most of the oil's been found.
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Re: Forbes: Oil, oil everywhere.

Unread postby Concerned » Tue 18 Jul 2006, 06:58:58

Actually the alarmist "theory" is that we are running out of cheap oil. Hence the term Peak Oil as in peak production. The alarmist theory does not talk about running totally out of oil :)
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Re: Forbes: Oil, oil everywhere.

Unread postby mekrob » Tue 18 Jul 2006, 07:12:22

Better to make us look like incomptents than to write about the facts.
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Re: Forbes: Oil, oil everywhere.

Unread postby peaker_2005 » Tue 18 Jul 2006, 07:19:45

I'll let my sig speak for my view on this article... :lol:
"Human beings, who are almost unique in having the ability to learn from the experience of others, are also remarkable for their apparent disinclination to do so." - Douglas Adams
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Re: Forbes: Oil, oil everywhere.

Unread postby shakespear1 » Tue 18 Jul 2006, 07:39:48

The power of using the right words 8) 8)

$this->bbcode_second_pass_code('', 'alarmist theory')
Men argue, nature acts !
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"...In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation."

Alan Greenspan
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Re: Forbes: Oil, oil everywhere.

Unread postby FoxV » Tue 18 Jul 2006, 09:26:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'o')il oil everywhere

ah yes, alluding to the "rhyme of the ancient mariner".

Let just complete the rest of the particular passage shall we

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ater water everywhere
and all the boards did shrink
water water everywhere
but not a drop to drink


all in all I would say quite fitting
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Re: Forbes: Oil, oil everywhere.

Unread postby Zardoz » Tue 18 Jul 2006, 10:31:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Leonardo Maugeri', '
')...In Saudi Arabia only 300 oil and gas wells (including developmental wells) have ever been drilled...

Huh? Excuse me?

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Re: Forbes: Oil, oil everywhere.

Unread postby Fergus » Tue 18 Jul 2006, 10:41:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FoxV', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'o')il oil everywhere

ah yes, alluding to the "rhyme of the ancient mariner".

Let just complete the rest of the particular passage shall we

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ater water everywhere
and all the boards did shrink
water water everywhere
but not a drop to drink


all in all I would say quite fitting


Also Iron Maiden did a nice job of writing that poem into an 11 minute song of the same name. Pretty decent song. Great band.
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Re: Forbes: Oil, oil everywhere.

Unread postby Battle_Scarred_Galactico » Tue 18 Jul 2006, 11:26:02

What an idiot, hung by his own play on words.
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Re: Forbes: Oil, oil everywhere.

Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 18 Jul 2006, 11:41:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')il, Oil Everywhere
Leonardo Maugeri, 07.24.06
We're not running out of oil--but high oil prices are needed to find it.
There is an alarmist theory that the world is running out of oil. Quite the contrary. There is plenty of oil in the ground, and high prices are just what's needed to tap the earth's vast reserves.


Every time I read this sort of ridiculous proselytizing for an ever better tomorrow, like everyone else on this board, my stomach does a nauseating gyration and my mind refuses to acknowledge that such overt stupidity could have arrived on the same planet in the same geological era as the one that produced Leonardo de Vinci and Albert Einstein. The, “there is oil everywhere hypothesis”, is of course riduculous; like there is water everywhere, so have a good cold glass of Dead Sea’s Mineral Water! Although sometime accused of a propensity to conspiracy theories, it is just that when faced with such absurdities I have a difficult time differentiating between what could be an agenda and what could be mind boggling ignorance. That is, if this article is not the propagation of an agenda then I must ask myself, “could anyone who can string 300 words together, somewhat coherently, really be that stupid?”

It is a dilemma!
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Re: Forbes: Oil, oil everywhere.

Unread postby dub_scratch » Tue 18 Jul 2006, 11:53:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'L')eonardo Maugeri
We're not running out of oil--but high oil prices are needed to find it.


I imagine to many uninformed people, that argument seems logical. The cheap price of oil has become the defult excuse for why there has not been any solution to the loss of cheap oil.
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Re: Forbes: Oil, oil everywhere.

Unread postby slick » Tue 18 Jul 2006, 12:33:46

He may be right inasmuch as currently in the ME there are a few huge wells but not the trillion little wells the USA sank as oil began drying up. So, extending what happened in the US to what's happening there, we could see a proliferation of little wells in the ME, and indeed all over the world, more than making up for lost big well production, although for how long is the question.
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Re: Forbes: Oil, oil everywhere.

Unread postby Gazzatrone » Tue 18 Jul 2006, 13:39:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dub_scratch', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'L')eonardo Maugeri
We're not running out of oil--but high oil prices are needed to find it.


I imagine to many uninformed people, that argument seems logical. The cheap price of oil has become the defult excuse for why there has not been any solution to the loss of cheap oil.


With that respect has he just unwittingly admitted that Peak has occured. Both with regard to the end of cheap oil and the amount left to utilise.

His statement can be read that these high prices are temporary and lower prices will return when oil starts flowing from those fields the high prices have paid to discover. But everyone here should know and Maugeri that high prices will not only stay but get higher as more smaller fields will have to be discovered.
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Re: Forbes: Oil, oil everywhere.

Unread postby dub_scratch » Tue 18 Jul 2006, 14:55:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gazzatrone', '
')With that respect has he just unwittingly admitted that Peak has occured. Both with regard to the end of cheap oil and the amount left to utilise.



Yes, the inherent contradiction is unavoidable when practicing faith-based resource economic theory. He and many other cornucopians argue that cheap oil will not end, and the thing that will insure that is the end of cheap oil. The hope is that the audience does not notice this contradiction.
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Re: Forbes: Oil, oil everywhere.

Unread postby Gazzatrone » Tue 18 Jul 2006, 15:12:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dub_scratch', 'T')he hope is that the audience does not notice this contradiction.


They'll notice it, but stupidly accept it because they'll be under the misguided belief that there IS more oil under the ground. Which is why it's going to hurt even more when the painful truth hits them.
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Re: Forbes: Oil, oil everywhere.

Unread postby Eli » Tue 18 Jul 2006, 15:32:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('slick', 'H')e may be right inasmuch as currently in the ME there are a few huge wells but not the trillion little wells the USA sank as oil began drying up. So, extending what happened in the US to what's happening there, we could see a proliferation of little wells in the ME, and indeed all over the world, more than making up for lost big well production, although for how long is the question.


Well Simmons and many geologist would take exception with this idea.
The geology of the ME is very different than that of Texas, especially in Saudi Arabia. There the geology was able to form the biggest oil filed in the world namely Ghawar.

Once that goes it is seriously doubtful that they will be able to make up the declines. It is just too huge to be made up by smaller fields.
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Re: Forbes: Oil, oil everywhere.

Unread postby dub_scratch » Tue 18 Jul 2006, 15:55:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')
The ME is several oil regions, all government-owned. It is a much newer oil region that matured with new efficient technologies. Finally it is mostly a hostile dead desert. One does not idly go out into one's backyard and drill a hobby well there. Each ME project demands a complete infrastructure replete with new roads, housing, security, and a finished pipeline. Of course there are few wells. Suffice it to say Lynch did not respond.

Still, if there are only 300 wells in SA he makes a good point sort of?


I asked Lynch a similar question and got no response. Lynch makes a big deal over the amount of drill holes in the US compared to the rest of the world but when pressed he could not give me the ratios of dry hole per wildcat well or discovery size per wildcat well.

Another point Maugeri and others like to make is how much technology has eliminated many dry holes. Well if that's the case, and if the US was wildcated without the benefit of much of this technology, would that not distort the drilling density issue and make it an unreliable indicator. It is intellectually dishonest to glibly spout out the drilling density thing and not put into some kind of analyzed context that includes economic, political and technological factors.

Of course, rigor is only a requirement for the oil supply skeptics. As far as Lynch, Maugeri et. al. are concerned, the universe is made up of nothing but oil until someone drills a hole and discoveries dirt and rock.
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