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Is America Going Broke?

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: The US is going broke ... This is an official announceme

Postby firestarter » Sat 15 Jul 2006, 08:02:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nero', ' ') Check out the budget. (table 17.4 line labled "Deposit of Earnings, Federal Reserve System") In 2006 the treasury believes it will receive 28.5 billion dollars from the Federal Reserve System. This is the federal reserve basically giving back most of the interest they earned on the government debt they hold.

Federal Budget 2006



This assumes the Federal Reserve earns only, there or about, $28.5 billion in interest in 2006. Table 17.4 infers no such thing. With an $8 trillion dollar debt, and revenue accrued vis a vis bond auctions and bond holdings being fueled by a yearly deficit of half a trillion bucks, $28 billion is chump change.
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Re: The US is going broke ... This is an official announceme

Postby EnergyUnlimited » Sat 15 Jul 2006, 08:18:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('presidentsherrill', 'I') am going to let you all in on a little secret.


The United States is a failure. The United States has been dead ever since we first declared bankruptcy at the beginning of this last century. Since that time the US government has been a corporation. A corporation so poorly run, that to compare to enron is an isult to the Memory of Ken Lay.


I didn't know it.
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Re: The US is going broke ... This is an official announceme

Postby Gazzatrone » Sat 15 Jul 2006, 08:31:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KhanCEO', ' ')I hope who ever wrote this trash gets hit by a bus.


From what I gather, your Public Transport system is pretty crap. Should have wished for an SUV. The size they are you'd mistake one for a bus and there's lots more of them about.

How scared are they on Capitol hill if the petrodollar hegemony collapses?

Now that WONT be pretty to see
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Re: The US is going broke ... This is an official announceme

Postby nero » Sat 15 Jul 2006, 09:30:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Firestarter', 'T')his assumes the Federal Reserve earns only, there or about, $28.5 billion in interest in 2006. Table 17.4 infers no such thing. With an $8 trillion dollar debt, and revenue accrued vis a vis bond auctions and bond holdings being fueled by a yearly deficit of half a trillion bucks, $28 billion is chump change.


The federal reserve currently holds about 762 billion dollars in government debt(link). The other 90% of the federal debt is NOT held by the federal reserve system. The interest on these holding is the main source of their income. Doing a little math shows you that 28.5 billion dollars is not chump change. For comparison purposes its more than all the customs duties and more than the income from the estate and gift tax.
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Re: The US is going broke ... This is an official announceme

Postby firestarter » Sat 15 Jul 2006, 10:36:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nero', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Firestarter', 'T')his assumes the Federal Reserve earns only, there or about, $28.5 billion in interest in 2006. Table 17.4 infers no such thing. With an $8 trillion dollar debt, and revenue accrued vis a vis bond auctions and bond holdings being fueled by a yearly deficit of half a trillion bucks, $28 billion is chump change.


The federal reserve currently holds about 762 billion dollars in government debt(link). The other 90% of the federal debt is NOT held by the federal reserve system. The interest on these holding is the main source of their income. Doing a little math shows you that 28.5 billion dollars is not chump change. For comparison purposes its more than all the customs duties and more than the income from the estate and gift tax.





nero,

I didn't mean to imply that all the outstanding debt certificates were owned by the Federal Reserve (nor that interest bearing bonds are their sole revenue generator), however, the proceeds from their (bonds) sale at auction is loot owned wholly by the Federal Reserve. In toto the Fed takes in much more than $28 billion per annum.
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Re: The US is going broke ... This is an official announceme

Postby firestarter » Sat 15 Jul 2006, 10:53:07

BTW, The Federal Reserve has never been audited. Also, the Federal Reserve has more than a symbiotic relationship with the banking system at its highest levels. The large racket is also part of the revenue generating scheme, only it's very difficult to glean what goes to who, when and where.
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Re: The US is going broke ... This is an official announceme

Postby KhanCEO » Sat 15 Jul 2006, 13:07:35

I've linked this video many times but in case anyone has yet to see it............

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid ... ey+masters

Also it i a 3 part movie just go to google video to get the rest if you still feel like watching it.
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Re: The US is going broke ... This is an official announceme

Postby Carrie » Sat 15 Jul 2006, 16:13:29

Looks like this report has made it into the mainstream press - the Telegraph is covering it now. I wonder how the markets will react (as if they don't have enough to think about already!):
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

US 'could be going bankrupt'
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Re: The US is going broke ... This is an official announceme

Postby Tyler_JC » Sat 15 Jul 2006, 16:30:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nero', '
')The federal reserve currently holds about 762 billion dollars in government debt(link). The other 90% of the federal debt is NOT held by the federal reserve system. The interest on these holding is the main source of their income. Doing a little math shows you that 28.5 billion dollars is not chump change. For comparison purposes its more than all the customs duties and more than the income from the estate and gift tax.


28.5 billion in annual interest from 762 billion in loans is a 3.7% rate.

Current government bonds trade at around 5%.

And remember that much of the debt has been added on in recent years at cut rate prices (super low interest rates).

So to me, this doesn't seem like the American Government is being ripped off.
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Re: The US is going broke ... This is an official announceme

Postby firestarter » Sat 15 Jul 2006, 18:03:16

One more time.

Since Bush took office, the FED profits by hundreds of billions of dollars by buying US Government Bonds (fiscal year ending in Sept 2005, the Fed's bonds were valued at $400 billion plus for that year alone). Yet it only returns, last year in particular, $28 billion to the US Treasury. The rest of the profit has been spent as "Operational Expenses".

It's a racket that sinks deep into the rearend of the tax paying American. The federal government got $28 billion circulated back to itself plus the initial $400 billion from the Fed vis a vis the Treasury. The Fed gets its $400 billion in bonds minus the expense of printing the money (3 cents per $10,000). The banking system is then subsidized by the unsuspecting tax payers to not only ante up the initial $400 billion, but the subsequent interest burden to pay off the usery charges to the banksters.


The vast majority of the $8 trillion in the national debt is clear profit for the Federal Reserve. $28 billion is essentially a rounding error.
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Re: The US is going broke ... This is an official announceme

Postby nero » Sun 16 Jul 2006, 02:28:42

Firestarter, the Fed buys the bonds it owns on the open market. The treasury (the bureau of the public debt) sells bonds at auction and receives the best price they can get. The Fed like any other actor could buy bonds directly from the Treasury but typically they buy them on the secondary market because they would be such a large player in any given weekly auction.

I'm not sure what you're trying to say with the following but it sounds way off base:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')ince Bush took office, the FED profits by hundreds of billions of dollars by buying US Government Bonds (fiscal year ending in Sept 2005, the Fed's bonds were valued at $400 billion plus for that year alone). Yet it only returns, last year in particular, $28 billion to the US Treasury. The rest of the profit has been spent as "Operational Expenses".


So what are the operational expenses for the federal reserve system? Better look it up I guess (gotta love google), FED annual report 2005

Their operational expenses were 2.9 billion dollars in 2005. Their income was 30.8 billion dollars and they gave 21.5 billion to the treasury and 0.8 billion as dividends to the menber banks.

The average interest rate they got on the treasury debt they held was 3.8%
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Re: The US is going broke ... This is an official announceme

Postby Liamj » Sun 16 Jul 2006, 07:41:03

What if China used all their worthless Treasury paper to make pretty their resumption of ownership in all the western corporate owned means of production in China? Will the chickenhawks convince the army to go get their (masters) manufacturing plant back? Or will they nuke China, and then sell their worthless Treasury paper to..? and get their manufacturing done in ..?
With pollution and soil erosion in China already screwing air quality in western US your nukes would be pissing into the wind, but stupidity hasn't stopped your Lords yet.
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Re: The US is going broke ... This is an official announceme

Postby rwwff » Sun 16 Jul 2006, 11:03:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Liamj', 'W')hat if China used all their worthless Treasury paper to make pretty their resumption of ownership in all the western corporate owned means of production in China? Will the chickenhawks convince the army to go get their (masters) manufacturing plant back? Or will they nuke China,


You can't "go get" plants. As long as the Chinese use dollars (or US Bonds) to buy those plants at market value, no one is going to say anything other than, "cool". Heck, US owned overseas assets have been taken over by countries time and time again over the last few decades, and the most you usually get is a bunch of loud ranting, followed by.... nothing. If the owners get paid fair market value, there won't even be that pathetic response.

Again, for the reality impaired... The US is not going to attack China. China is not going to attack the US.
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Re: The US is going broke ... This is an official announceme

Postby Kingcoal » Sun 16 Jul 2006, 11:43:05

I think the biggest problem with the Federal Reserve System has to do with the amount of reserves. I worked at a startup company in the late '90's and we had problems raising money until a huge investor bought $10 million in stock. After that, the other $20 million we were looking for came effortlessly. As I understand it, the Fed system is the same process. The dollar bill is a stock certificate and the company is the US. The US needs to raise money, so it asks its biggest single owner; the Fed, to buy some stock. The Fed gives the stock a certain value. At that startup company, our stock went from worthless to about $10/share about one second after that big investor made their purchase. The Fed is the buyer of last resort and will prop up the dollar in a time of crisis, currency war, etc. The problem is, where is the gold? Where is the reserve? In other words, a real crisis, which we haven't seen yet, by the way, raising interest rates no longer has any effect and inflation continues. What is plan B?

The idea of a "reserve" is that plan B is as follows: dump gold for dollars, thus propping up the dollar. I don't think there is any gold though, am I correct? Maybe the modern version of plan B is use the US military to prop up the dollar. Eliminate, using covert methods, any challenge to the dollar (foreign currency oil bourse, etc.)
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Re: The US is going broke ... This is an official announceme

Postby firestarter » Sun 16 Jul 2006, 19:18:45

nero,

The following is an entry from Jerry Voorhis, The Strange Case of Richard Milhous Nixon, 1973


"...the sovereign government of the United States goes hat in hand to the private banking system and asks it to create the new money that the economy needs. The government gives-the word is used advisedly-it gives to the banking system, including the Federal Reserve banks, government bonds, the debt of all the people. Interest-bearing bonds, that is, bonds bearing as high an interest rate under today's regime as the banks decide to demand. Else they won't buy the bonds. The banks "buy" the bonds with newly created demand deposit entries on their books-nothing more. It is fountain-pen money and considerably more inflationary than would be the same amount of dollar bills created by the government. The deposits the banks create with which to own the people's debt are backed by nothing except the bonds themselves! In other words, they are backed by the credit of the American people.

What the government has "borrowed" from the banks, what the people must for years pay interest on, is nothing more nor less than the credit of the nation, which obviously the nation possessed in the first place or the bonds themselves would be no good!

As a direct result of logical and relentless agitation by members of Congress, led by Congressman Wright Patman as well as by other competent monetary experts, the Federal Reserve began to pay to the U.S. Treasury a considerable part of its earnings (your $28 billion alluded too) from interest on government securities. This was done without public notice and few people, even today, know that is being done. It was done, quite obviously, as acknowledgment that the Federal Reserve Banks were acting on the one hand as a national bank of issue, creating the nation's money, but on the other hand charging the nation interest on its own credit-which no true national bank of issue could conceivably, or with any show of justice, dare to do.

But this is only part of the story. And the less discouraging part, at that. For where the commercial banks are concerned, there is no such repayment of the people's money. (the symbiotic aspect I alluded too)

When the commercial banks create money, as they do when they acquire government bonds, they levy a tax on every person in the United States. This is so because every new dollar that is created makes every dollar previously in existence worth somewhat less than it was worth before. This is the very heart of inflation.

It is also taxation without representation with a vengeance. Until this system is changed, our debt will continue to skyrocket without limit and the fixing of debt limits by the Congress will continue to be an exercise in utter futility.

What ought to be done?

Banks should lend existing money. But, as the Constitution clearly requires, the money (or credit) of the nation should never be created by any private agency, but by an agency of the nation itself. It is the duty of Congress to provide for this by a carefully drawn statute.

The stock in Federal Reserve Banks should be purchased by the government from their present private bank owners. The Federal Reserve should then become our national bank of issue. It should create reserve Bank Credit as it does now. But that credit should be credited to the United States Treasury, not charged against it and the people as debt. As much such new credit should be created each year as is needed to keep our economy running at or near capacity-and no more than that. A stable price level could result. Then and only then can we expect to overcome recessions, to put our people to work, and do this without the danger of inflation and the ever-increasing debt which are inescapable under the present monetary system. .."
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Re: The US is going broke ... This is an official announceme

Postby nero » Mon 17 Jul 2006, 01:41:06

Firestarter,

I read carefully the passage you quoted. I'll note some places where it isn't as clear as it could be.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he banks "buy" the bonds with newly created demand deposit entries on their books-nothing more.


What it is talking about here is fractional reserve banking. You might like to rail against this if you like but it has nothing to do with the federal reserve. Fractional reserve banking goes back at least to the goldsmiths in the middle ages.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he deposits the banks create with which to own the people's debt are backed by nothing except the bonds themselves!


A private bank can borrow money deposited with the bank to buy government bonds. This is exactly like a bank lending money to Ford or GM. It's what banks do and there is absolutely nothing nefarious about it. Anybody who has watched It's a Wonderful Life understands that that's the basis of banking.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hat the government has "borrowed" from the banks, what the people must for years pay interest on, is nothing more nor less than the credit of the nation,


The government doesn't just borrow from banks. Anyone and I mean anyone can lend money to the government. If a private individual buys a T-bill it is almost as expansionary as if he put his money in the bank and the bank buys the T-bill. Afterall he basically treats the T-bill like a savings account. The radical solution the author is recommending is that the government should stop borrowing and just start printing any money they need above what they receive in taxation. This would be tremendously inflationary because the banks will still be able to expand the money supply by lending to other private individuals and corporations.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hen the commercial banks create money, as they do when they acquire government bonds, they levy a tax on every person in the United States. This is so because every new dollar that is created makes every dollar previously in existence worth somewhat less than it was worth before. This is the very heart of inflation.


The commercial banks "create money" when they buy corporate bonds as well. That's fractional reserve banking for you again. What the author is suggesting is much more inflationary than the existing system because he isn't suggesting we get rid of fractinoal reserve banking but is advocating a massive expansion of the monetary base.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 't')he money (or credit) of the nation should never be created by any private agency, but by an agency of the nation itself.

The question of whether or not the federal reserve banks are "private agencies" is moot in my opinion. They are what they are, since they are not-for-profit corporations I don't see the harm in leaving them nominally in private hands.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ut that credit should be credited to the United States Treasury, not charged against it and the people as debt

Because the government doesn't ever have to worry about paying off this debt held by the federal reserve, the difference between what the author is advocating and the present system is just a matter of bookkeeping. If you never have to repay a loan it is for all practical purposes a gift. If the government ever did pay off all the debt held by the federal reserve it would mean that all our paper currency would disappear into the Fed's vaults. Since neither the Fed nor the government wants this to happen they maintain a polite fiction where one promises to repay and never does and the other continues to extend the credit necessary to roll over the debt held by the Fed indefinitely.
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Re: The US is going broke ... This is an official announceme

Postby firestarter » Mon 17 Jul 2006, 08:14:45

nero,

You sound very much like a Keynesian economist. Being that I'm a subscriber to the Austrian School of thought, you and I are probably not going to bridge our philosophical gaps in this venue. It's been fun though.

p.s., are you a banker or financier ?
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Re: The US is going broke ... This is an official announceme

Postby nero » Mon 17 Jul 2006, 16:58:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')ou sound very much like a Keynesian economist. Being that I'm a subscriber to the Austrian School of thought, you and I are probably not going to bridge our philosophical gaps in this venue. It's been fun though.


Probably not, cheers.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'p').s., are you a banker or financier ?


Heaven forbid!
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Re: The US is going broke ... This is an official announceme

Postby jaws » Mon 17 Jul 2006, 19:50:34

To clear up the confusion, here's the fractional reserve banking problem in a nutshell. I open up a bank with a million in starting capital of US Federal Reserve Dollar Notes. A man comes to me and takes out a loan for 100,000 notes. I write him a cheque for that amount. The man then goes to one of his suppliers and pays for goods with the cheque. The supplier then pays someone else with the cheque, who pays someone else with the cheque. At the end of the month I, the banker, realize that I still have all of my 1,000,000 notes in the vault. Sweet, I say, I can book that loan as pure profit since it will never be called in. I issue another loan.

What happened is that the cheque I issued became money. The problem of course is that if there is ever any doubt about the solvency of my bank, all the notes will be called in for real money. Then the bank will be rupt.

Of course with the Federal Reserve capable of inventing and loaning out as much money as necessary to cover these banks, the possibility of a scenario such as this is eliminated. On the other hand there is always inflation and business cycles and eventually hyperinflation will come and civilization will go to hell.
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Re: The US is going broke ... This is an official announceme

Postby rogerhb » Mon 17 Jul 2006, 20:11:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jaws', 'O')f course with the Federal Reserve capable of inventing and loaning out as much money as necessary to cover these banks, the possibility of a scenario such as this is eliminated.


So the old fashioned "run on the banks" is now an impossibility since paper money is no longer an IOU for gold?

And if somebody withdraws all their money it can only be as paper money (which is effectively a cheque anyway), and the worst that can happen is that the paper they get back is worthless?
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