[lutherquick]

http://www.moscowtimes.ru/stories/2006/06/06/002.html

Well, even though there was a referendum in the USSR, giving the people the vote to hold it together or dissolve the USSR, and even though the people voted to keep it together, Yeltsin went against that democratic choice of the referendum. For that, Yeltsin is a little confused by the West, people think he was pro democracy, when in fact, he was simply pro-West. Yeltsin thought, and assumed that releasing energy reserves into the hands of private investors that this would recover Russia's economy... little did he understand that as this happened, all this new wealth was sucked away westward, for democracy, well, for American democracy.

In any case, what ever reason Yeltsin used to pick Putin, at least he managed to pick someone that understands peak oil and is doing what most CIS people want.

Energy is the ultimate tool for this effort.

My bet is that we will see more capitalism and more democracy in Russia, more than Americans can stand or stomach. Whoever is the next president of Russia, bet your azz he will believe in Peak Oil and democracy... Umm... let me clarify, that is Russian democracy, not American democracy.

[Cynus]

He'll probably also believe in "free markets" more than Americans can stand. Free as in "hey markets, why not move to Russia where we still have energy so you can stay in business."

[lutherquick]

Analysts urge Russia to diversify economy

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060705/ap_ ... economy_g8

The Russian economy is very diversified. Far more than any other energy exporting nation.

Can Saudi Arabia do even 100/th of Russia out side of the energy sector?

Russia's problem is not diversification, that trigger has been started, like trickle down Reaganomics. The real issue is "volume". And as she produces more, the consumer economy will grow like crazy, along with the military industrial complex. Not only will a growing Russia diversify even more, but internal industries will demand more energy, this will make Russian (energy) exports DROP. Russia's eventual drop in exports will once again drive energy prices higher, and higher. This will infuse places like Iran, and Venezuela, Ecuador, Bolivia with more cash, which will in turn, be used to purchase more Russian arms, and again, DROPPING energy exports... a cycle, pure resonance that optimizes the advantage for energy producers.

And Russia is in a very special situation. It's the only nation with nuclear weapons and nuclear energy that is energy self sufficient. The only energy exporting nation that can send man to space in a reliable effort. Software engineering, jet engines, semiconductors, avionics, aerospace, even consumer foods are far healthier than American's steroid, anti-biotic lased crap food. Many cities throughout Russia and the former soviet union have their own TV and shoe factories. Name me one American city that has such diverse factories?

Clothes are manufactured on the outskirts of Moscow, the most expensive city on Earth. How can this be? Probably because the government is doing allot to avoid the Dutch disease by taking that oil money and buffering in super funds, stabilization funds, and buying up assets all over the planet.

This is a question of volume, not diversity.
Don't worry Mr. Analyst, Russia is diversifying, and in doing so, will export far less energy.

[sch_peakoiler]

Another question is not volume, it is quality, and the price. The falling dollar makes import goods more and more attractive. And the quality of many goods manufactured in russia is not quite up to the standard.

Russian cars are one example of this price and quality dilemma. Russian TV sets (yes they exist) - is another example. Both those categories can not compete in quality with imported goods. Maybe some german or japanese carmakers some day take over LADA and produce normal cars. I, for example, would not buy (if not absolutely forced to) an item of russian manufacture if it is none of the following list:
weapons, including Airguns (pretty good ones in russia and also cheap)
space craft
interceptors
foodstuffs

well, that's it I guess.

You are quite right, Russia is deversified, but the quality is still the issue to be worked on. May be the investitions would do he trick.

[Concerned]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sch_peakoiler', 'A')nother question is not volume, it is quality, and the price. The falling dollar makes import goods more and more attractive. And the quality of many goods manufactured in russia is not quite up to the standard.

[rogerhb]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sch_peakoiler', '.')... foodstuffs well, that's it I guess.

[lutherquick]

sch_peakoiler,

You are correct on quality. However, I had GM, I had Ford, and Chrysler, and what crap. Cars from Germany and Japan are much better than Americans cars. My experience basically leads me to feel that older Soviet cars were about as good as America. And I would say today, Russian cars are beginning to move ahead of American in terms of quality, maybe years of bad economy has made them wake up, but it's happening.

Anyway... quality will be directly proportional to the availability of energy.

Now explain to me how the space shuttle can't deal with ice? Even the first crash couldn't deal with a slightly cold o-ring. The Soyuz, with 1700 plus flights, has sheets of ice falling off of it... it's even designed to launch from the northern climates... and, look at Russian aircraft landing gears, they can handle less paved runways... Certainly, Russian food is far healthier, and much if it is grown locally (depends where you are, but higher average than the EU or US).

There are many things that are of better quality...

For sure, much of the entire standard of living and quality of life will be related to energy. But also how efficiently you use it, so that the savings can be turned back into the economy... Public transportation in Russia, along with the concept that 'MOST' cities use the equivalent of something calls CHP (combined heat and power), similar to cogeneration... This is where power plants burn some fuel on the edge of the city to make electricity, then take the waste heat and pump it to the city for heating of homes...

Generally, suburbia doesn't exists in Russia... They are designed for 'low' energy input, and as they do increase their per capita energy consumption, it will lift quality and quantity.

[sch_peakoiler]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Concerned', '
')Perhaps the Soviet era you would be correct. Today Russia manufactures cars for Ford and others.

[Concerned]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sch_peakoiler', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Concerned', '
')Perhaps the Soviet era you would be correct. Today Russia manufactures cars for Ford and others.

[sch_peakoiler]

Well the primary motivation was to overcome the tax tariffs on the imported cars. If you manufacture a car in russia then you do not have to pay for its import.

As to the production moving closer to energy sources, it makes sense, but so far this production was only sold in russia, not exported back to Europe or US. Lets see what happens when the prices grow.

[sch_peakoiler]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rogerhb', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sch_peakoiler', '.')... foodstuffs well, that's it I guess.

[lutherquick]

sch_peakoiler,

You said : "So the own population is not important. For now, Putin has succeeded in decreasing the internal consumption "

What a bunch of crap...

If you need to blame, then blame Yeltsin.


The people of the USSR voted, in a referendum, to keep the USSR alive, and that would have kept this economic collapse from getting so deep... No, not with out reforms, but the splitting of the USSR allowed a tremendous amount of wealth to be sucked out...

Putin is fixing the first colored revolution. Forget words, look at the accounting entries, look at the debt payments, with each notch, each iteration, things get better. There was no silver bullet, not in Yeltsin's choice of ignoring people's choice, not in the oligarchs...

But in retrospect, there will be no new ussr, it's pointless. The Russians love and like capitalism, it's a great position in post peak oil. And it looks like the Ukrainian employed are getting heard as well. That American / EU financed cluster fvck colored revolution has just died. Back to work Ukraine, just like the rest of the CIS nations (except Georgia).

[sch_peakoiler]

luther,

my optimism level in assessing what Putin does is rather low. I do not like certain parts of his policy at all. In the "coloured" scenario, americans come to power (Ukraine, Georgia). In the scenario in Putin Russia, a bunch of half-Mafia half special service employees have to come to power. I do not know which scenario is better in the end for nomal russians. I think none of them. The only good thing Putin did was nationalizing the resources. But the revenues from those exports flow to his henchmen and not to the russian people. That is what disturbs me.

[lutherquick]

sch_peakoiler,

Well, I just googled and guess what, Putin doesn't owe you squat. He owes the Russian people. Based on my experience, things are getting better there, day by day.

What you are afraid of sch_peakoiler, is that Putin isn't going to subsidized YOUR economy. Too bad. naive, drunk on his ass Yeltsin has been put into retirement.

What I really love about your last post is how you said "In the "colored" scenario, Americans come to power (Ukraine, Georgia). " yup, typical, Ukraine belongs to the fat azz, retarded Americans. You see, you are frustrated, Yukos CEO, Mikhail Khodorkovsky is in jail, because he was caught forging signatures, doing transfer pricing and so forth. And sch_peakoiler, I really do understand. When Tyco fucks the American people up the ass, it's a bad thing, but when Yukos does it, it's democracy. I think I understand you correctly right?

Well sch_peakoiler, too bad. Putin has done far more good that any leader I have seen in my time. I can't name any leader of any country in the last 30 years that ever did so much good. Sure, he has allot more to do, and sure, the next leader will continue nationalizing things for the sake of keeping the PNAC nut jobs away... you don't like it? Go to Venezuela then...

Like I said before. Use the good English, use the power language and the great marketing words, and hopefully, if you are lucky, and America trips over some solution, then America will be saved. America will put it's money on hope and praying and luck. The state of Russian affairs has a long ways to go, but the track record of Putin is reflected in his approval rating. His allegiance is to his country.

Name call all you want, about mafia this and that, face it, America's track record is pathetic. Don't tell me about human rights or honesty, when you can't find one gram of wmd, can't find binladen and support Floridian prison that force prostitution.

sch_peakoiler, incase you forgot, Ukraine isn't part of America, too fucking bad for your investments. Today, the colored revolution has reverted, and now the employed in Ukraine are in power. The unemployed, holding US flags, are back in the pastor.

sch_peakoiler, what disturbs you of Russia is that you can't get your hands on their oil or their profits, too bad. You will never see the US flag on top of the Kremlin.

[sch_peakoiler]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lutherquick', 's')ch_peakoiler,

Well, I just googled and guess what, Putin doesn't owe you squat. He owes the Russian people.

[lutherquick]

sch_peakoiler,

You said: "Russia is big enough to make 100 different people have 100 different experiences"

That can be applied to all countries...

So, tell me, what experience do you have in traveling the world? Don't be abstract... I've been in 11 countries, lived in Belarus for about 12 months with my wife, with many trips...

I remember, so well, so vividly, standing in Belarus, in my mother-in-law's kitchen when she told me that Yeltsin resigned... she could see the smile in my face, I knew things would change VERY fast, and for the better... Only one thing I think Yeltsin did so well, and that was picking his successor, if Putin is 1/2 as successful at picking the next, at that point, nothing will stop democracy in Russia. PM me and I give you some links to articles one year before Khodorkovsky was arrested where I said when and why he would be arrested.

I'm not so good at politics, but what I see is just common sense. I see what I see, and refuse to get into this group think and brouhaha drunken talk about how great America is. I can see the problems in Belarus, Russia and Ukraine, but I see so much hope and so much opportunity. They need leaders that focus on them, not begging from the West. They have everything to be great and to balance US hegemony. The US is absolutely obsessed with reaching and taking. This is as fundamentally bad as a business man too focused on the money... The most successes will be had if you focus on deliverables and the business, not the money... Yeltsin was not evil, not a US citizen (I'm sarcastic) but he was too naive, expecting to save Russia from the outside.

What we are seeing in Russia you can almost call it Putinomics, like Reaganomics. Putin 'MUST' nationalize energy, because energy is the equivalent of airspace, or boarders and national defense. When energy was cheap, it was different. But today, if another Yukos comes to life, and that CEO decides to use transfer pricing to doge his tax liabilities, if wealth is transferred away from Russia just one more time, then as a country they will be finished.

Either energy in nationalized, or Western influence will distort and manipulate Russia's last a remaining way to recovery. This is not just business, this is a matter of life and death. That energy does not belong to the market, it doesn't belong to America, it belongs to Russia and for the purpose of prosperity and well-being. America has the obvious understanding, and the obvious incentive to destabilize Russia, because how else will America drive her SUV's and heat their homes?

But also understand, that some sensible Russian leader, and hopefully, the next Putin, will be standing in the way of America's reach. It's what today's Russian population expect, and when Russian children 50 years from now read history books, it's what they will expect. Russian energy will profit the Russians the most, like it or not. Liberalization of energy puts it into America's hands because American corruption is too sophisticated. Khodorkovsky spent too much time dinning in Washington DC. Khodorkovsky was at heart, a US citizen. This is too dangerous.

[rogerhb]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lutherquick', 's')ch_peakoiler,

You said: "Russia is big enough to make 100 different people have 100 different experiences"

That can be applied to all countries...

[sch_peakoiler]

Well as for travelling, I just counted countries where I have been (longer than a one day transit) and came up to 8. I have been to Belarus for 7 hours (transitting through, so it is not included in the 8 ) without my wife, because I have no wife.
So you are three countries ahead of me. Gosh I have to travel soon to catch up.

luther, I think you are right when you say it is Russia's last chance. One wrong move and it is coloured forever. 2008 will be a suspense... But as I always say, Russia is an empire of corrupt partocracy (power of the corrupt ruling party) and not a democracy. They did not nationalize Energy, they Putinolized and Sechinolized it (if the name Sechin sounds familiar by chance). I am still waiting for my cup of oil, I got none. So much to 'nationalized'. Anybody will get the money for the exported oil, but not the russian citizens.

P.S. Does Vatican go as a country? If yes, I got 9. Two more countries and I am catching up...

[sch_peakoiler]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rogerhb', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lutherquick', 's')ch_peakoiler,

You said: "Russia is big enough to make 100 different people have 100 different experiences"

That can be applied to all countries...

[rogerhb]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sch_peakoiler', 'A')nd I would say except for Garden State cause it is the same all over the place, so there can be only one experience, right?