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THE Stephen Hawking Thread (merged)

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: Stephen Hawking says humans must go into space

Postby seldom_seen » Tue 13 Jun 2006, 23:15:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')tephen Hawking says humans must go into space

Ahh...space. The ultimate techno-fix fantasy. Problem is. We're already in space. We're there.

To think that we can manage critical resources on some space station light years away is just ludicrous when we can't even manage the abundant resources we have here on earth. The unfortunate few blasted in to space would be dead in no time. Reminds me of a Bob Marley song "You're running and you're running and you're running away, but you can't run away from yourself."

Homo sapiens is a species of the earth, always has been, always will be. Taking humans off the earth is like taking a fish out of water. Most people just can't comprehend this though lost in space flight techno fantasies.

Hawking is just expressing the ancient and primordial urge to expand carrying capacity through the conquest of new habitat when population pressure increases. He's trying to address the problem of overpopulation, but never mentioning it.
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Re: Stephen Hawking says humans must go into space

Postby grabby » Tue 13 Jun 2006, 23:48:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NeoPeasant', 'W')asn't this one of JD's big things? Sending a few dozen colonists into space might in theory preserve the human race from eventual extinction, just as a few dozen tigers in zoos may preserve tigers from extinction.


A few dozen of anything is a tenuous attempt at preventing extinction. Over generations of inbreeding, a gene pool this small of any animal becomes predisposed to genetic defects.

It's called biological extinction.


The human race is not going to survive by any idea it will ever come up with, it is about ready to run out of power in a few years.

But it won't be starvation that kills all on earth it will be one of three things or all three:
1. Nukes
2. Stupid human tricks
3. Ignorant human tricks

Can't say which, but you'll probably see for yourself.
As for space:
We need about 100 miles of air between us and space radiation, no one would survive a trip to any star.
Last edited by grabby on Wed 14 Jun 2006, 01:40:06, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Stephen Hawking says humans must go into space

Postby mfire » Wed 14 Jun 2006, 00:32:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TITAN', 'Y')ou actually believe humans are the ONLY intelligent life in the ENTIRE UNIVERSE? That's both arrogant AND naive... I would bet my life on the fact that we are definitely NOT alone...


Actually I think there probably is other intelligent life in the universe. I really hope there is and I think it is very important to try to look for it. However, I also do believe that it is possible that we are the only intelligent life in the universe and I would not be willing to risk the existence of life itself on that hope. I think to do so would be naive.
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Re: Stephen Hawking says humans must go into space

Postby zoidberg » Wed 14 Jun 2006, 00:59:44

Whats the hurry? Space exploration requires technologies we cant make or probably even imagine. We also have a grand project of designing an indefinite technologically advanced civilization. We may very well end up trying a few times to get it right(although the first time with fossil fuels will probably be the most explosive attempt)

Once we got living on earth down pat and energy production in line with the population and standards of living then we can use that stable base to start designing and testing interplanetary freighters and passenger ships. That may take a very long time, or it may be quick but slow to transport people and materials around with the ships. (which may be small due to hard radiation hazards in the outer space).

To sum up,
We can do it, but we have to let go of our unnecessary sense of urgency and do what needs to be done first.

Step 1:
Arm your country to the teeth, hoard essential resources and ride out the downward spiral as the world learns to confront billions of years of evolution with conscious decisions. (Or die trying)

Short term doomer, long term cornucopian.
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Re: Stephen Hawking says humans must go into space

Postby EnergyUnlimited » Wed 14 Jun 2006, 01:16:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')A few dozen of anything is a tenuous attempt at preventing extinction. Over generations of inbreeding, a gene pool this small of any animal becomes predisposed to genetic defects.

It's called biological extinction.


Genetic engeneering will deal with that.
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Re: Stephen Hawking says humans must go into space

Postby EnergyUnlimited » Wed 14 Jun 2006, 01:31:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jellric', 'U')nfortunately the space program will likely become one of the first casualties of PO.


I am skeptical about that.

1. Oil is not the best fuel to run space projects.
Even with UNLIMITED supply of oil we could not design interstellar travel based on oil as a power source.

2. Fusion would be a minimum power requirement to even think about interstellar travel.

3. Fusion would have to be mastered very well to construct a spacecraft powered with it.

4. Society which mastered fusion very well will no longer need any oil (either in space or here on the Earth). Not even for transport or machinery.
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Re: Stephen Hawking says humans must go into space

Postby EnergyUnlimited » Wed 14 Jun 2006, 01:37:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seldom_seen', ' ')The unfortunate few blasted in to space would be dead in no time.


Some survived more than a year (eg. Russian astronaut Krikariev on ailing Mir space station. And he managed to come back and is still alive and well).
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Re: Stephen Hawking says humans must go into space

Postby grabby » Wed 14 Jun 2006, 01:42:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seldom_seen', ' ')The unfortunate few blasted in to space would be dead in no time.


Some survived more than a year (eg. Russian astronaut Krikariev on ailing Mir space station. And he managed to come back and is still alive and well).


In low earth orbit under the Van Allen belts and protected by the earths magnetic field you can survive for a yera.
outside of earths shield you would be dead in a short time.
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Re: Stephen Hawking says humans must go into space

Postby DefiledEngine » Wed 14 Jun 2006, 01:42:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')You actually believe humans are the ONLY intelligent life in the ENTIRE UNIVERSE? That's both arrogant AND naive... I would bet my life on the fact that we are definitely NOT alone...


Then why is the universe so silent? Even after almost five decades of listening around, why does the fermi paradox still hold?
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Re: Stephen Hawking says humans must go into space

Postby grabby » Wed 14 Jun 2006, 01:45:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DefiledEngine', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')You actually believe humans are the ONLY intelligent life in the ENTIRE UNIVERSE? That's both arrogant AND naive... I would bet my life on the fact that we are definitely NOT alone...


Then why is the universe so silent? Even after almost five decades of listening around, why does the fermi paradox still hold?


Search methodologies are flawed and incorrect indicators are being sought.
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Re: Stephen Hawking says humans must go into space

Postby 0mar » Wed 14 Jun 2006, 02:19:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DefiledEngine', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')You actually believe humans are the ONLY intelligent life in the ENTIRE UNIVERSE? That's both arrogant AND naive... I would bet my life on the fact that we are definitely NOT alone...


Then why is the universe so silent? Even after almost five decades of listening around, why does the fermi paradox still hold?


5 decades is an infinitesmally small length of time. We are dealing with distances that takes light itself years to travel. If an advanced civilization was say, 200 light years away, they'd also come to the conclusion that no intelligent life exists, even though, cosmologically speaking, we are right next door. If a civilization was on the other side of the galaxy, we'd never detect them, because it would take any signal 100,000 years to reach us or about 12x longer than the entire span of recorded civilization.

That life exists in other parts of the Galaxy, let alone the Universe, is no question. Probably even intelligent life. It's just that physics conspires against any attempt to detect these lifeforms.
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Re: Stephen Hawking says humans must go into space

Postby EnergyUnlimited » Wed 14 Jun 2006, 02:24:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('grabby', '
')The human race is not going to survive by any idea it will ever come up with, it is about ready to run out of power in a few years.

But it won't be starvation that kills all on earth it will be one of three things or all three:
1. Nukes
2. Irreversibly mutating our food supply.
3. Mutated disease that is unstoppable.

Can't say which, but you'll probably see for yourself.
As for space:
We need about 100 miles of air between us and space radiation, no one would survive a trip to any star.


Re. Extinction of humanity due to running out of power.
Unlikely.
1. Nuclear + renewables will replace oil & coal. Within 200-1000 years (means before nuclear will run out), fusion is likely to crop in.
2. In the past we had only burning of wood as a power source (and even earlier no power source other than food at all) and there was no extinction.

Re. Nukes.
Unlikely. They grow smaller & weaker and we have fewer and fewer of them. The radiation is not so bad either (watch this wildlife reserve around Chernobyl and note that majority of those irradiated had no or not much health problems. However there was unlucky few).
Nuclear winter would not starve to death coastal areas either and few years later spring would come.

Re. Mutating food supply.
Mutated food may be healthier than natural one.
Even if we lose few crops (say soya or maize) there is plenty of other to replace those.
I doubt, that all animals could be synchronically mutated somehow.
If things come to crunch you will always have some algi to eat.

Re. Unstoppable disease.
Unlikely.
The disease causing bug will die of once probability of meeting uninfected human by the one who got it is so low, that it will not happen within the lifetime of the latter.
Mean: Bug will go extinct but some healthy people will survive.
That is assuming 100% mortality rate (also unlikely, even from AIDS some individuals recovered).

Re. 100 miles of air needed to survive in space (radiation hazard).
Not at all.
Few inches of lead will do as well.
Nothing at all (except shell of spacecraft) will also do. Some astronauts survived more than a year on the orbit without observable radiation related health problems.
It would take about 15 years for the travel to nearby alien stars assuming 20% of speed of light.
At 95 % of speed of light it would take only few weeks (due to relativistic effects). Not enogh time to irradiate yourself much...
Finally magnetic field generated around spacecraft will deflect energetic charged particles which are major contituents of cosmic radiation.

It is always better to look for solutions than to worry about problems.
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Re: Stephen Hawking says humans must go into space

Postby EnergyUnlimited » Wed 14 Jun 2006, 02:47:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('grabby', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seldom_seen', ' ')The unfortunate few blasted in to space would be dead in no time.


Some survived more than a year (eg. Russian astronaut Krikariev on ailing Mir space station. And he managed to come back and is still alive and well).


In low earth orbit under the Van Allen belts and protected by the earths magnetic field you can survive for a yera.
outside of earths shield you would be dead in a short time.


It is rather flying WITHIN Van Allen belts what gives you a lot of radiation.
Once you go away from them (say on the Moon), you will no longer get much of it.
The gratest risks for those who visited the Moon was from belts themself.
Radiation received on the Moon was negligable comparing to this received from Van Allen belts.
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Re: Stephen Hawking says humans must go into space

Postby MonteQuest » Wed 14 Jun 2006, 02:57:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')A few dozen of anything is a tenuous attempt at preventing extinction. Over generations of inbreeding, a gene pool this small of any animal becomes predisposed to genetic defects.

It's called biological extinction.


Genetic engeneering will deal with that.


That's really ignorant or you are being flip.
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Re: Stephen Hawking says humans must go into space

Postby Anthrobus » Wed 14 Jun 2006, 03:19:16

That the universe seems to be silent does indicate that there is at least no technical advanced civilisation that produces detectable radiation while thriving for a long time 8lets say a million years). Thay obviously have peak something too.

Instead of going into space i propose to bury groups of people (to be woken up later) in time capsules in various places of the earth.

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Re: Stephen Hawking says humans must go into space

Postby Dukat_Reloaded » Wed 14 Jun 2006, 03:21:59

Instead of space, we should move under the sea. 78% of the earth is covered with water, that give the human population lots more room to grow and expand.
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Re: Stephen Hawking says humans must go into space

Postby EnergyUnlimited » Wed 14 Jun 2006, 03:33:14

MonteQuest,
Not necessarily so ignorant.
I am not talking about simple "repair" of acquired deffects.
It would rather rely on advanced understanding of genome work and on INTRODUCING some genes from population left on the Earth into an offspring of those, who have left (samples of those genes would be taken with peoples who leave).
This would create artificial diversity within the offspring of those few.
It could require genetic engeneering of dosen of generations in the new world, but much of genetic diversity of humankind would be preserved.
Eventually sufficiently large and self sustaining population would result and no more genetic fiddling would be needed.

Civilization capable of interstellar travel is ought to acquire mentioned genetic technology as well (it would rather be easier, than space travel itself).
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Re: Stephen Hawking says humans must go into space

Postby arretium » Wed 14 Jun 2006, 03:43:39

So what is the brane world scenario?


I googled it and read enough to realize I needed someone to help explain it to me. Anyone know anything about this topic that can provide information in layman's terms?
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Re: Stephen Hawking says humans must go into space

Postby untothislast » Wed 14 Jun 2006, 05:56:41

Bart's robot friend has taken leave of his senses.

We OWE it to the rest of the universe, not to export our addled and exploitative value system away from the planet which gave it birth. It needs to die here.

Otherwise, it's called metastasis.
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Re: Stephen Hawking says humans must go into space

Postby Battle_Scarred_Galactico » Wed 14 Jun 2006, 06:00:19

2. In the past we had only burning of wood as a power source (and even earlier no power source other than food at all) and there was no extinction.

Yes, exactly right. And if you want to avoid extinction, or have any resources left for high levels of technology, then this is the level population and energy use must return to.
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