[parsifal]

Will PO be an event that you can take a picture of as if it were 9/11? Will it be an erosion that you notice as you notice the green of this world vanishing? How long can the hamster run the wheel?

[jeezlouise]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('parsifal', 'W')ill PO be an event that you can take a picture of as if it were 9/11?

[XOVERX]

It could be a single "watershed event".

For example, if the USA attacks Iran, and if Iran retaliates by destroying signficant amounts of ME oil production facilities, then thta could well be a single watershed event.

Quite possibly ushering in, "hello Peak Oil."

[IslandCrow]

There is too much uncertainty about the data that we will probably never know. What we will know (but a few months late) would be Peak Production, although we could see figures vary from month to month, so it could be some months before we could say for sure that production peaked [remember: 'one swallow does not a summer make', so 'one month's reduction does not peak oil make']

However, looking at how people handle history, most people would want/need to have a specific date, so I guess that a date would be hung on some political event, which if it were big enough (and knocked out a lot of production) could well signal 'peak production'.

[Sleepybag]

Some say the moment is already there.

[roel]

You're in it mate, this is it.

It makes sense that it be a long moment, where today is the start of an elongated plateau.

T.B. Pickens yesterday declared peak oil: <i>"You got 85 million barrels (a day) available globally and I don't think that 85 million is going to grow. I think that's all the world can do..."</i>
What more do we need to hear?

http://msnbc.msn.com/id/13230645/

[linlithgowoil]

there wont be a 'moment' its the Long Emergency (tm Kunstler).

In other words, if things go business as usual - i.e. no major disruptions to oil supplies, then we'll just gradually find things getting more and more expensive, more difficult and harder and harder to maintain our current way of life, until you get to a point where you just cant go on how we used to.

im not sure whether it will mean the end of the world as we know it - but im pretty sure it will cause at least some kind of recession/depression - no idea how long it would last.

thats the biggest problem in my opinion - the economic impact. i am a lawyer who mostly sells and buys houses for clients. if things go economically sour, my job is obsolete. not good.

[Pretorian]

What stops you from growing your own food, or hunting and gathering it? Greed. You'd better make 3 or 4 other people to do it for you. Not good. You or your children will pay for that.

[untothislast]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('parsifal', 'H')ow long can the hamster run the wheel?

[untothislast]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('parsifal', 'H')ow long can the hamster run the wheel?

[evilgenius]

It looks just like this. We have peaked. That is to say the world can't produce any more oil per day. The Saudis production might be sliding. Sure if Iran closes the Gulf it will be looked at as the moment. It will, however, be the moment because we are there right now only it is the beginning of the crest. The end of the crest comes when world demand begins to rise past the amount of oil that we can produce currently.

What can we do in response. I think the best immediate measure would be to fully fund an intense web upgrade so that high speed is ubiquitous and nearly free. That would enable more people to work from home. It would also help to cut out a few years of inefficiencies, shopping expenses esp, that could help extend the crest. The administration thinks that the answer is to tank the economy so that the US and the world will consume less oil. That is a load of hooey. Unfortunately it is what is happening.

[strider3700]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('linlithgowoil', '
')
im not sure whether it will mean the end of the world as we know it - but im pretty sure it will cause at least some kind of recession/depression - no idea how long it would last.

[teemu]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('parsifal', 'W')ill PO be an event that you can take a picture of as if it were 9/11? Will it be an erosion that you notice as you notice the green of this world vanishing? How long can the hamster run the wheel?

[SoothSayer]

Of course there might be recessions/depressions if price of energy rises too fast and economy cannot adapt fast enough.

I think that the the UK has been caught with its trousers down with regard to energy ... the North Sea decline came "too early".

This will lead to a rapid rate of change in energy prices ... this year domestic energy prices are 25% up from last year. It only took a cold winter to cause this price shock - natural gas prices QUADRUPLED in just one day last winter.

More amazing, all this chaos was triggered by a tiny supply-demand imbalance - see the graph below:



What the heck will happen when that gap gets REALLY big?

As the energy costs rise, more and more marginal businesses will close ... and then whole marginal sectors ... which will ripple through to make other sectors less successful so that they too close.

Unless some bright people jump in to create whole new business sectors we could end up with a very poor and shabby country quite soon. Death by a thousand cuts.

I would LOVE to hear of an alternative "descent" route which will lead to a land of milk and honey.

Other counties might see a reflection of their own future in the UK's plight.

[linlithgowoil]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pretorian', 'W')hat stops you from growing your own food, or hunting and gathering it? Greed. You'd better make 3 or 4 other people to do it for you. Not good. You or your children will pay for that.

[NeoPeasant]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('parsifal', 'W')ill PO be an event that you can take a picture of as if it were 9/11? Will it be an erosion that you notice as you notice the green of this world vanishing? How long can the hamster run the wheel?

[grabby]

That will help peak oil.
less consumers and we will delay a bit.

[NEOPO]

You know it is sad but true.

Economies going flop - Business going under - earthquakes, tsunamis and hurricanes/typhoons - war, famine, disease and death are all.................. PO positives............. meaning that these things will probably delay the inevitable.

I am not so sure that this thing needs any more delay.

If you look at it from a dieoff to 2 billion=sustainability way then the only way we will see tomorrow is if many of us do not.

You know it is sad but true.

I would not worry about the moment that much but the many moments after the fact.

The only reason we even care about the moment is so we can say "see see its true!!!" and feel somewhat like Hubbert must have felt when his prediction came true.

Truth is - when the moment arrives that we can prove we have peaked - we will be even more fuct as we have had to waste time convincing the deniers of reality of reality while we should have been doing more to plan and implement a sustainable future in our own lives.

Hell folks - once we gain knowledge of peak there will be a huge glob of "proof" to the contrary coming from every imagineable pie whole the PTB/MSM and even your IN DENIAL friends and relatives can find.

If you think the shit is thick now........... just wait...

Good luck with that - back to powering down and sustainability for me and mine

Heh.... reminds me of Kunstler at Winnepeg U.

A paraphraseD summary with comic intent
"yer all gonna die - there are no alternatives - powerdown or die - reduce Co2 emissions or die - I think the next generation will lead us to a new future and not make the same mistakes their parents did - have a nice day - applause"

hahah always try to end on a high note
good night and good luck.

[LadyRuby]

No there won't be any single moment. We may have entered the phase, or not.

[seahorse]

I think there will be a "moment." That moment may be different for each of us. For me it was reading that Mathew Simmons was over at the Defense Department saying "the energy crisis has arrived" and telling our military establishment they need to prepare for an "energy war."