[holmes]

AND TO TOP IT ALL OFF..CORN IS A 100% UNSUSTAINABLE CROP WHEN GROWN IN MASS PRODUCTION MONOCULTURE. IT SUCKS WATER AND SOIL DOWN LIKE A PONZI SCHEME. IT IS ONE OF THE BIGGEST CONTRIBUTORS TO OUR LOSS OF WATER AND SOIL.
END OF FUCKING STORY.
SCAM. PONZI.

[ReserveGrowthRulz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NEOPO', '
')I suppose I will take on #2.

"A 10% INCREMENTAL recovery ( change in IOR ) translates to about 1.4 TRILLION barrels of recoverable resources, roughly an additional 50-year supply of global crude oil consumption at current rates."

You have made it pretty easy for me or anyone else actually by pinning your #2 point on one person.
Are you sure you would not wish to include some others who might be harder to discredit???

[ReserveGrowthRulz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NEOPO', '
')According to optomistic TPTB estimates Ethanol has an EROEI of 1.3 - 1.6 to 1.
There is a great difference between 30-1 , 20-1 , 10-1 and 1.6 to 1.
Its a new era and cheap oil is over.

We will be just fine - if we are wrong - if you and those you admire are wrong - we are fucked.

[seahorse2]

Here's an interesting EIA document discussing various energy sources. Important to this debate is towards the bottom of the report where it discusses ethanol, bio fuels, costs, and estimates percentage of fuel use to come from these sources by certain dates. Whether it helps or hurts this debate is up for you all to decide.

EIA Fuels Outlook

[ReserveGrowthRulz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('holmes', 'A')ND TO TOP IT ALL OFF..CORN IS A 100% UNSUSTAINABLE CROP WHEN GROWN IN MASS PRODUCTION MONOCULTURE. IT SUCKS WATER AND SOIL DOWN LIKE A PONZI SCHEME. IT IS ONE OF THE BIGGEST CONTRIBUTORS TO OUR LOSS OF WATER AND SOIL.
END OF FUCKING STORY.
SCAM. PONZI.

[ReserveGrowthRulz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'I') easily dismissed your booboo #1 as complete, unadulterated junk. The Hirsch report has nothing to do with biofuels because they do not exist. They are nothing like coal-to-liquid technologies that ran both Germany and South Africa during wars. No industry or society has ever been run on biofuels. This is why Hirsch does not accord it any attention whatsover.

.

[seahorse]

Unfortunately, any points in this debate get lost in all the personal attacks.

I found this statement interesting from the above linked EIA report:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he solvent properties of biodiesel also make it unlikely that biodiesel blends could be shipped through petroleum product pipelines. There would be a risk of contamination when the biodiesel dissolved any material deposited on the walls of pipes, manifolds, or storage tanks. On the positive side, the addition of biodiesel to petroleum diesel reduces engine emissions of carbon monoxide, unburned hydrocarbons, and particulates. On the negative, it tends to increase nitrogen oxide emissions, and that may limit the use of biodiesel in places with excess levels of ozone at ground level.

The production of methyl esters is an established technology in the United States, but the product typically has been too expensive to be used as fuel. Instead, methyl esters have been used in products such as soaps and detergents. Proctor and Gamble, Peter Cremer, Dow Haltermann, and other large firms currently supply methyl esters to the industrial market. Most dedicated biodiesel producers are much smaller, and delivery of a consistent product is proving to be a challenge.

Several other processes for making diesel fuel from biomass are under consideration. The most mature of these technologies is biomass-to-liquids (BTL). The biomass is first reacted with steam in the presence of a catalyst to form carbon monoxide and hydrogen, or synthesis gas. Any other elements contained in the biomass are removed during the gasification step. The carbon monoxide and hydrogen are then reacted to form liquid hydrocarbons and water.

Although BTL products are high in quality, BTL plants face several challenges. They have high capital and operating costs, and their feedstock handling costs are especially high. BTL gasifiers are significantly more expensive than the gasifiers used in CTL or GTL facilities. Furthermore, the cost of a BTL plant per barrel of output is several times the cost of expanding an existing petroleum refinery or building a new one. As a result, while new BTL plants are being built in Germany, there is no commercial production of BTL in the United States. BTL production and its market implications are discussed under “Nonconventional Liquid Fuels,” below.

[Kez]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReserveGrowthRulz', 'T')he sugar beet farmers are pretty excited about their product. They don't like corn either, and neither does the research I've seen on which is better to convert to alcohol.

[ReserveGrowthRulz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Kez', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReserveGrowthRulz', 'T')he sugar beet farmers are pretty excited about their product. They don't like corn either, and neither does the research I've seen on which is better to convert to alcohol.

[FatherOfTwo]

I attended Robert Hirsch’s presentation at the UofC today. Essentially it’s a trimmed down power point version of his report, Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation and Risk Management.

I have to say, he’s a very straight laced, no-nonsense kind of guy. It was a very good introduction for newbies, although after reading his original report I didn’t find much new in it. He covered the basics of oil production, showed all of the different projected peak dates by EIA, ExxonMobil, CERA, Campbell, ex-Saudi Aramaco officials etc., and then went on to show what their research says is needed to mitigate. One of the new things I did see was how they’ve incorporated the various “commercial ready” mitigation efforts, CTL, EOR, heavy oil, fuel efficiency increases etc. and he also made it clear that even if these mitigation efforts are rolled out in full force, it’s only under ExxonMobile’s 2030+ date where we can feel confident that we won't encounter any negative effects from Peak Oil. My one disappointment was that he talked of Peak Oil as a liquid fuels crisis, which I agree it is, but it’s also an economic crisis. Perhaps he didn’t want to dump too much do-do on everyone.

At the end I was able to ask him just what exactly the relationship between him, his original report and the DOE is. (Cuz it was never clear to me if the DOE asked him to do it etc.) He stated that “they” (him and his co-authors) approached the DOE with the idea, the DOE agreed to fund it and then when they delivered it, the DOE didn’t quite know what to do with it. He said in general that it’s only been in the last few years where talking about peaking of world oil production hasn’t been considered as “fringe” and that things are “bubbling up” now in the government.

In his language choice you could tell he thinks are going to be bad but would rather get people to act then scare the do-do out of them, so he went to pains to not come across as a scare monger. IMO he’s exactly the type of Peak Oil prophet that needs to be heard.

edit - cleaned up my language!

[Carlhole]

Was it videotaped?

[Torion]

that's very interesting that he approached the DOE! I wondered about that when I read his report. Thanks for the report and the information!

[seahorse]

Fatherof2,

When you asked him about his earlier report, were you asking him about his 1980's? report that RGR has mentioned? Great question and I hope you can give us some more details as to why he did that report in the 80s. Was he just crying wolf in the 80s or do you think he believes PO is going to happen this decade for example.

[Such]

well.... that is how many things are done in the US. Petition the government.

[FatherOfTwo]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seahorse', 'F')atherof2,

When you asked him about his earlier report, were you asking him about his 1980's? report that RGR has mentioned? Great question and I hope you can give us some more details as to why he did that report in the 80s. Was he just crying wolf in the 80s or do you think he believes PO is going to happen this decade for example.

[grabby]

Ah my condolences, that you have a lawyer in the family.
My grandfather died of cancer so I know how you feel.

[FatherOfTwo]

I finally got my hands on Hirsch's presentation that he gave at the ISEEE conference at the University of Calgary in June.

I've converted the power point presentation to a PDF and uploaded it to a free web hosting service, available here

This presentation is more suited to having him discuss it at the same time, it doesn't read like his report; nonetheless, it's worth posting for members to see.

ISEEE plans to post this on their site one of these days, so I trust my linking to it here isn't violating any copyright or other COC rules.

[FatherOfTwo]

A link to Hirsch's latest presentation (given to ISEEE at the UofC) can be found in this thread