[TWilliam]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jeezlouise', 'T')he bottom line is this: Yeah, biofuels sure look good on paper, but... there is one overriding factor that has to be dealt with... the one huge problem that seems to be driving all of mankind's other problems... can you guess? What, ultimately, is driving both Peak Oil and Global Warming? Ok... say it with me now....

O V E R P O P U L A T I O N

Until we can figure out a way to level off the world's population and then safely reduce it to a normal level, none of these other problems can be solved. Biofuels will do nothing to solve this situation and may well exacerbate it. It's like putting a band-aid on a gaping head wound.

Getting six and a half billion people (plus another quarter mil every day) to agree on this is just about impossible. People are gonna fuck when they wanna fuck. This I think is where the Doomer perspective ultimately springs from.

[TWilliam]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lorenzo', 'S')imple.

[jeezlouise]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lorenzo', '
')Biofuels is the way to fight overpopulation.

Biofuels = prosperity for dead-poor high-fertility-ratio countries
Economic growth = decline in birthrates

Each African woman with a current fertility rate of 6 (like the average woman in the Congo), and who dedicates one hectare of her land to biofuels, will see her fertility rate drop, as oil prices rise and her income from biofuels rises.

Simple.

[MonteQuest]

This study is a sequel to the Hirsch Report which addressed the issue of world oil peaking. This current study deals exclusively with physical mitigation options for the U.S.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')his study considered four options that the U.S. could implement for the massive physical mitigation of its dependence on imported oil:

Vehicle fuel efficiency (VFE)
Coal liquefaction (coal to liquids or CTL)
Oil shale
Enhanced oil recovery (EOR)

[mekrob]

That's gotta be one of the most optimistic reports ever. In 20 years, they think we'll be producing only about 100 kpd less. And they still think that efficiency won't be eaten up by simply more driving.

[Silverharp]

stopped reading after it said oil might peak in the next decade or two

[XOVERX]

Interesting article. Hopefully the Republicans will get these projects going.

[Zardoz]

He talks about peak in 10 or 20 years, a cost of $2.6 trillion as being on the low side, five new CTL plants per year, oil shale as being a viable option, and the whole effort still being only a partial solution.

Even with all the new jobs he talks about, the tax revenues, and the sales figures, to me this is still a pretty doomerish paper.

[mekrob]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Even with all the new jobs he talks about, the tax revenues, and the sales figures, to me this is still a pretty doomerish paper.

[pup55]

Couple of things on this:

a. The authors think that once the decision is made to do the program, it will take three years before the first drop of alternate fuel is produced. If the initiative for this is supposed to come from the government, you know that not squat is going to happen for the next 2.5 years as it is, since the current rulers of the country are going to choose to spend the time debating gay marriage and the flag burning amendment. So, even if there is an electoral revolt and some adults are brought into the system, and even if they could find $2.6 trillion (1/4 of GDP) somewhere, nothing will get started until 2009 at the earliest, which means the first dribble of liquid fuels will show up about 2012.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')ortunately, the U.S. is endowed with needed geological
resources, capital, labor, and management to undertake such an effort.

[jdumars]

A lot of junkies die.

A lot of pulmonologists and oncologists smoke.

Many nutritionists and dieticians eat fast food at least once a month, and usually more often than that.

Many people who preach conservatism or piety are the same ones that have affairs, steal, lie and cheat.

The point I am making here is that even the most risk-informed people make decisions they know are blatantly self-destructive and/or hypocritical. With PO we're going to see this a lot. People will preach conservation, replacements, etc. but will continue many wasteful/damaging activities in secret. All of the hand wringing over finding replacements will only amount to so much hot air because the people who are in a position to enact the changes will be the last to feel the direct effects.

To pull off the mitigations that Hirsch and others envision requires a level of self sacrifice and altruism that I don't believe exists in this society. My ultra-left wing, environmental activist lawyer relative built her house in a wetland and shingled it with old growth cedar. She also regularly drives 140 miles to work.

I see the level of systemic retribution eminating from PO in almost spiritual terms. We have been warned, and ultimately salvation lies not in the actions of the whole but the heart and soul of the individual. Actions will speak louder than words.

I wish there was a way of easily describing myself as a doomer in these terms.

[ReserveGrowthRulz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'W')e must innovate and invent long before we peak in energy, or we will not be able to without a massive socio-economical upheaval. The “father” will be shooting blanks. Our inventions will be stillborn. This is what the Hirsch Report is all about.

[mekrob]

I've never seen a Hirsch Report from '87. Would you mind helping a PO'er out? Thanks.

[TT]

Pstarr, you seem like a pretty smart guy [ but why are you feeding this troll?

[ReserveGrowthRulz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 't')he troll was kicked of Montequest's thread. They gave him his own bridge to lurk under.

[NEOPO]

RGR said $this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')upposition: 2003 Hirsch report purposely ignores enough ready to go mitigation of Peak Oil procedures/technologies/current events which, when added into his modeling, completely negate the effect of Peak Oil itself.

Any takers?