[mekrob]

I'm glad he's taking a strong stand, I just wish he were pro-drilling, but also with limits on its use (strictly for the absolute needy and the rest [99%] for building renewable and condensed infrastructure).

[dub_scratch]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')ongressman Roscoe Bartlett Opposes Drilling in ANWR
... "If we could pump ANWR tomorrow, what would we do the day after tomorrow?"

[eastbay]

There is nothing that can stop the USA from drilling in ANWR. The triggers that will cause this are too numerous to list. We might as well go in right now, empty the rest of the Alaskan oil fields and get it over with.

[dub_scratch]

...Yea. Notice how the congress keeps voting for it every month. It keeps failing to pass the Senate but eventualy it will pass....And then we'll suck out the remaining oil as fast as we can in order to get those 50 mile daily commutes back down in cost again....Yep, we are on our way to suburban paradise again.

[rwwff]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dub_scratch', '.')..Yea. Notice how the congress keeps voting for it every month. It keeps failing to pass the Senate but eventualy it will pass....And then we'll suck out the remaining oil as fast as we can in order to get those 50 mile daily commutes back down in cost again....Yep, we are on our way to suburban paradise again.

[Micki]

Perhaps I am too lazy to search and look up, but do we have any estimate what the daily production would be?
Would it be enough to drive down prices?

If they are given approval to drill today, when would the oil start flowing on to the market?
(Actually if this is years away, wouldn't it make sense to give approval now as in years to come we may be well on the downslope of the peak)

[thorn]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Micki', 'P')erhaps I am too lazy to search and look up, but do we have any estimate what the daily production would be?
Would it be enough to drive down prices? If they are given approval to drill today, when would the oil start flowing on to the market? (Actually if this is years away, wouldn't it make sense to give approval now as in years to come we may be well on the downslope of the peak)

[mekrob]

There's about 10 billion barrels (mean) in ANWR. We use 21 mpd x 365 d/y ~~16 months. But we can't pump it out like that. Most people will say it's about 1 mpd, but we got Prudhoe Bay up to 1.5 mpd and that was only slightly larger (and ANWR is probably bigger than the 10 billion stated). So I'd say somewhere around 1.5 mpd, but if we really need it, we can damage it and get probably ~ 2mpd, but then suffer from 10+% depletion rate.

Even 1 mpd is enough to drive down prices in this market. Wait ten years when this oil hits (or may hit) the market, and it would substantially drop the price (assuming we're still in a relatively 'free' market ie without government intervention in the form of ceilings).

About five years to drill (pipelines are in place mainly). Then a few more to get it up to peak (if it follows Prudhoe), stay around that peak (plateau) for 5-8 years, then have a very high depletion rate.

[emersonbiggins]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mekrob', 'E')ven 1 mpd is enough to drive down prices in this market. Wait ten years when this oil hits (or may hit) the market, and it would substantially drop the price (assuming we're still in a relatively 'free' market ie without government intervention in the form of ceilings).

[Tyler_JC]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emersonbiggins', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mekrob', 'E')ven 1 mpd is enough to drive down prices in this market. Wait ten years when this oil hits (or may hit) the market, and it would substantially drop the price (assuming we're still in a relatively 'free' market ie without government intervention in the form of ceilings).

[sicophiliac]

Well ya know, since the USA is currently producing around 5 million barrels a day an extra 1 mill a day would make for a 20% boost in domestic production which is... given the scarcity of new oil finds these days a pretty substantial gusher of crude. Also if we went gung ho and opened up alot of the currently off limits coastal areas to drilling I think we could at least level off domestic production for another 10 years give or take.
I do agree its only a matter of time before it gets drilled, gas is over 3 bucks a gallon and there is an election this fall so the pressure is mounting. I personally am all for drilling but id like a special environmental tax to be attached to the profits the oil companies make from this area. Take that money and use it to construct wind turbines or solar cells or something along those lines.

[mekrob]

We produce about 7 or 7.5 I think. The 5 mpd mark is for the lower 48. GOM and Alaska are each about 1 mpd and push us overall up above 7 mpd.

But you saw what happened when Katrina hit and took out 1 mpd of oil supply, right? Prices jumped up 16%. Well in the future we'll have an even tighter market, so a 1 mpd increase in supply (or more) would have a trememdous drop in prices. But that's only if we have a free market. In 10 years, we'll be on our way off the plateau, I think, and prices naturally will be so out of control that governments will try to 'ease' the pain by putting a ceiling on prices. So I guess you are right. Prices won't (might not) change much.

[gego]

This just goes to show the insanity of government making economic decisions.
Maybe it is just that Bartlett didn't get enough in "political contributions" from those who stand to gain the most.
And let us not forget that the public who will suffer the decline in oil production mean nothing to theses powers in DC.

[grillzilla]

Here's the USGS fact sheet on ANWR for those who would like to review the baseline of the debate: USGS ANWR FACT SHEET
Personally as I read over the assessment I get less excited about the prospects for the Wildlife Refuge contributing a meaningful quantity of oil to the lower 48. I envision lots of 50 mmbbl oil fields, not one large 10 billion barrel oil field like it sounds in the press.

[sicophiliac]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mekrob', ' ')Well in the future we'll have an even tighter market, so a 1 mpd increase in supply (or more) would have a trememdous drop in prices. But that's only if we have a free market. In 10 years, we'll be on our way off the plateau, I think, and prices naturally will be so out of control that governments will try to 'ease' the pain by putting a ceiling on prices. So I guess you are right. Prices won't (might not) change much.

[killJOY]

Wasn't there a movie about this? Involving a "wafer-thin mint?" link

[DesertBear2]

I worked as a geologist associated with the drilling operations at Prudhoe Bay in 1981. I do not support drilling in ANWR.
And just what does it mean that we now need the oil? Need it for what? To fuel the current fleet of 50,000,000 oversize SUVS?
BS, I say. The ANWR reserve represents a chance to show some restraint and consider the value of the environment and other life forms on this planet..
And it won't make a pimple's worth of difference in the coming oil depletion. It's about profits for the oil majors.

[CornwallMnt]

We don't need to drill in ANWR...yet? There is 1000 acres NOT in a roadless area, PRIVATELY OWNED that the USGS USFS calculate 320 million barrels of oil were formed from the Mancos Shale source rock. See USGS Professional papers 258 & 852. Lexam Explorations discovery of oil in the San Luis Basin was the first indications that convential wisdom was about to be proven wrong.

Waiting for development.

[eric_b]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('CornwallMnt', 'W')e don't need to drill in ANWR...yet? There is 1000 acres NOT in a roadless area, PRIVATELY OWNED that the USGS USFS calculate 320 million barrels of oil were formed from the Mancos Shale source rock. See USGS Professional papers 258 & 852. Lexam Explorations discovery of oil in the San Luis Basin was the first indications that convential wisdom was about to be proven wrong. Waiting for development.

[CornwallMnt]

Seems like a majority of people on this site, don't feel any exploration is worthwhile unless it has the potential for decades long supplies. Since it will only feed the world's demand for only 4 days. What about the other economic benefits to the surrounding areas in jobs, equipment purchases. If the Gov't agencies and the activists would allow this project, royalities for the landowner could help them develop other low impact farming projects and fund research for alternatives. But noo, Seems like people eageraly want to see the demise of our economy and way of life with our reliance on any oil. I can remember how diesel was only available at certain stations when I was a kid. I am all in favor for finding a replacement and taking a generation to have the dispensing stations set up. Middle Eastern people went from riding camels to Rolls Royces in a generation and with an alternative they could be returning to camels within a generation