[BrazilianPO]

Oil, water, food, and now... rhodium? In the event of peak oil, world industry will fail as a whole. Shouldn't commodities prices fall like a rock in the future or should I buy some gold and silver?

Peak all commodities

"The rare metal rhodium has surged to $6,275 an ounce, leading a rally in niche commodities that goes beyond anything seen in the gold, silver, or copper markets."

"Barclays Capital cited the roaring bull market for these niche metals as proof that real demand, fuelled by Asia's industrial revolutions, is the real driver of the global commodities boom."

"Tungsten, used in drills and light bulbs, is up 330pc; while iridium has soared 328pc on its use in compasses and pen tips. Molybdenum is up eightfold; ruthenium fivefold; both cadmium and antimony have more than tripled."

"China has become a major importer of rhodium, partly for use in catalysts to convert crude oil into petrol at its new generation of high-tech refineries. It is also used as a fission product absorber in nuclear energy."

[ohanian]

Not true.

I'm still waiting for human population to peak.

[Jack]

Interesting article!

I wonder where the commodities necessary for hybrids, electric cars and other high-tech pseudo-salvations will come from? One might be driven to think that the cornucopians are once again barking up a dead-end alley.

Not that that would be anything new.

[pea-jay]

I am not so confident on calling a complete commodity peak, just because of rising prices and demand. It is logical that a non-renewable substance would ultimately peak and decline, but simply watching the price signals alone wont be enough.

First of all, energy costs are up (duh) so all things being equal, so will commodity prices. The greater the dependence on energy, the bigger the increase. Second, demand is higher, thanks to greater economic activity (particularly high tech which utilizes these uncommon elements and materials.). Higher demand = higher prices. Plus many of these unique elements are have real small production and consumption figures, lending themselves to larger percentage swings when compared to the much more common place Oil or Natural gas. Plus with any of the traded metals, there is some effect of investment speculation. It's not driving it but it helps push the price a bit further.

The bottom line is we have no real idea how much is still in the ground and accessible at what price. And unlike energy, there always ARE alternatives to most metals/commodities while recycling and reuse can also play a part. Old TVs can always be recovered. You cant unburn gasoline however.

Of the metals out there, the only one I am inclined to buy as peaking is Copper. The other stuff is still to speculative at this point.

[BrazilianPO]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pea-jay', 'I') am not so confident on calling a complete commodity peak, just because of rising prices and demand. It is logical that a non-renewable substance would ultimately peak and decline, but simply watching the price signals alone wont be enough.

First of all, energy costs are up (duh) so all things being equal, so will commodity prices. The greater the dependence on energy, the bigger the increase. Second, demand is higher, thanks to greater economic activity (particularly high tech which utilizes these uncommon elements and materials.). Higher demand = higher prices. Plus many of these unique elements are have real small production and consumption figures, lending themselves to larger percentage swings when compared to the much more common place Oil or Natural gas. Plus with any of the traded metals, there is some effect of investment speculation. It's not driving it but it helps push the price a bit further.

The bottom line is we have no real idea how much is still in the ground and accessible at what price. And unlike energy, there always ARE alternatives to most metals/commodities while recycling and reuse can also play a part. Old TVs can always be recovered. You cant unburn gasoline however.

Of the metals out there, the only one I am inclined to buy as peaking is Copper. The other stuff is still to speculative at this point.

[strider3700]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BrazilianPO', '
')
Second, not all metals can be recicled. At least not economically. Say for instance you have a few grams of copper in a TV set. To actually remove that copper from the TV circuitry, you will need people, machines and chemicals, whose costs might not match that of the copper recovered. Thus, that copper is ultimately lost.