gnm,
No offense taken. I was using Social Security and Medicare as examples of other serious problems facing America that America refuses to face, and using those as examples to people like Lorenzo who believe that America/world will switch to alternatives. If we refuse to face problems like SS and Medicare, why will PO be any different? Sure, there are solutions to all problems, but people aren't recognizing facing these problems that require people to voluntarily power down.
PeakOil is You
The Robert L Hirsch Thread (merged)
Re: Scary update from Hirsch
by seahorse2 » Thu 04 May 2006, 11:32:35
Last edited by seahorse2 on Thu 04 May 2006, 12:03:04, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Scary update from Hirsch
by gnm » Thu 04 May 2006, 11:44:11
sigh. too true... too true... The government is showing themselves to be totally incapable of dealing with even basic problems. Too much entrenched beuracracy. Too much inertia in a F@#$%d up system!
People like Lorenzo I can only assume have a poor grasp of the real quantites involved. _If_ biofuels can eventually make up 10% of current usage and the rest declines inexorably forever then how can we expect the world to just use 90% less fuel say 50 years out than it does today without untold amounts of pain? And even with that plan you can just forget about growth...
-G
People like Lorenzo I can only assume have a poor grasp of the real quantites involved. _If_ biofuels can eventually make up 10% of current usage and the rest declines inexorably forever then how can we expect the world to just use 90% less fuel say 50 years out than it does today without untold amounts of pain? And even with that plan you can just forget about growth...
-G
- gnm
Re: Scary update from Hirsch
by lorenzo » Thu 04 May 2006, 12:00:02
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('clifman', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Free', ' ')At least you have the likes of Hirsch and Bartlett around, in the EU I don't know of a single person in politics that is clearly PO-aware with all its consequences.
This guy seems to be: http://www.energybulletin.net/11701.html
The European Greens have raised the issue more than once before the EU Commission:
http://www.greenparty.org.uk/news/2409
Piebalgs (EU Minister for Energy) says he has 'no plan for Peak Oil'.
But the issue is definitely being debated in EU politics.
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Re: Scary update from Hirsch
by lorenzo » Thu 04 May 2006, 12:05:12
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gnm', 'P')eople like Lorenzo I can only assume have a poor grasp of the real quantites involved. _If_ biofuels can eventually make up 10% of current usage and the rest declines inexorably forever then how can we expect the world to just use 90% less fuel say 50 years out than it does today without untold amounts of pain? And even with that plan you can just forget about growth...
-G
-G
If you carefully read my posts, you see that I never said that bioenergy will solve the *entire* world's energy problems. I do say, and I stick to it, that several countries can achieve energy independence based on bioenergy, and that in general the bioenergy option has the potential to make the transition from a fossil fueled world to a post-fossil fueled world more smoothly.
The EU can replace 30% of current consumption by locally produced bioenergy. The US (in a recent fat report) says bioenergy can replace 40% of its consumption. And studies by the IEA's Bioenergy Dept. show that the global biomass potential equals the current consumption of fossile fuels.
These are facts about potentials.
How this plays out in the real world is another matter.
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Re: Scary update from Hirsch
by gnm » Thu 04 May 2006, 12:32:33
fair enough... And I have read many of your posts. But I still don't believe the hypothetical 30-40% numbers can ever be attained. Ethanol is like what 4% of current fuel use in the US right now? And they are producing a LOT of ethanol. And those coutries which might be able to sustain themselves (Brazil being on of your primary examples) are still using oil (even if they are not importers). They are also relying on fossil derived fertilizers and in general raping their own environment for food and fuel. Even if they could transit to sustainability they can forget about growth. Sure its a solution to slow the pain. But it is a solution which will only be reserved for the wealthy and powerful.
-G
-G
- gnm
Re: Hirsch report is pretty weak
by JPL » Thu 11 May 2006, 18:50:08
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lorenzo', '
')
Obviously, as oil gets more expensive, the supply chain and transport of bioenergy will be entirely based on biofuels itsself. It's a bit like the energy farmers in Europe who are all using biodiesel for their tractors, simply because it's cheaper than ordinary diesel. But you hadn't thought of that, had you?
')
Obviously, as oil gets more expensive, the supply chain and transport of bioenergy will be entirely based on biofuels itsself. It's a bit like the energy farmers in Europe who are all using biodiesel for their tractors, simply because it's cheaper than ordinary diesel. But you hadn't thought of that, had you?
Sorry, but I have to butt in here. Here in France I have never seen, sniffed, had the opportunity to invest in, let alone bought a single gallon of bio-diesel.
JPL
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