[azreal60]

I've never been a big fan of quoting. I don't know why, it seems to be all the rage online. I'm more a fan of answering.

Personally, I think the truth of the situation is somewhere between your two viewpoints. I do think Monte that year's of battles against idiots have left you a bit fixed when it comes to your personal ideology. I'm not saying your really that far wrong, personally I think your mostly correct, at least in the long term. But I do think your total discounting of human ingenuity is an error of note. Am I saying the society we have now will survive? Heck no. But I'm not sure I'm into dieoff land yet unless we do one of two stupid things. (nuclear war or global warming tipping point)

On the other hand, rwwff, I agree that your being way too "this won't affect me". A point you keep pretending isn't there is that this Has to affect you. And by affect you, I mean in a miserable kind of way. Yes you might be more prepared than most, but No one can really prepare for this kind of thing. I was especially not believing your discounting of the people who this will effect first. If a good deal of american's get truely desperate, what is to stop them from Taking your nice little plot of land from you? I realize you think this could never happen, but on a lessor scale if you don't believe the greater, how will you replace those things you need to run your farm when they are stolen? ( and if times get truely desperate, they will be) That I think is truely where your turning a blind eye.

Overall though, I'm envious. You have done what I wish I had the resources to do, at least make an honest attempt to prepare for peakoil. That's why I'm alot more afraid than you are. Because honestly, if it came down to stealing your farm impliments to get the resources to feed my daughter, you best believe I'd do it in a heartbeat. Morals are alot harder to come by when your starving. ( or your family is) And I'm definately in that under 32k a year catagory. For both me and my wife.

(note) I'm not actually going to steal anything nor do I advocate it. I'm just pointing out the attitudes of the very people you just ignored completely other than to say tough cookies.


Oh and a note on Monte, when he's talking about the end of our way of life, he's not talking about the end of the world, he's talking about the end of our culture. On that I whole heartedly agree. And they are Very seperate things.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('azreal60', ' ')I do think Monte that year's of battles against idiots have left you a bit fixed when it comes to your personal ideology. I'm not saying your really that far wrong, personally I think your mostly correct, at least in the long term. But I do think your total discounting of human ingenuity is an error of note. Am I saying the society we have now will survive? Heck no. But I'm not sure I'm into dieoff land yet unless we do one of two stupid things. (nuclear war or global warming tipping point)

[rwwff]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('azreal60', '
')On the other hand, rwwff, I agree that your being way too "this won't affect me". A point you keep pretending isn't there is that this Has to affect you. .

[grabby]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'C')an we sustain this population and add another 3 billion and do it while shifting to other sources of energy besides fossil fuels?

Not a chance.

Human ingenuity has limits constrained by physics and harsh reality.

And it also must be implemented in a timely manner.

When is this genius going to start?

Biofuels? Ha!

Tar sands? Ha!

Iraq? Ha!

.

[Doly]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('grabby', '
')Biofuels are a non-event. They mean and will mean absolutely NOTHING at all.

[newhunter-gatherer]

To quote Colin Campbell ''C E = CE, contracting energy equals contracting economy''.

Peak Oil may very well spell the end of ecomomics.

[Doly]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('newhunter-gatherer', 'T')o quote Colin Campbell ''C E = CE, contracting energy equals contracting economy''.

Peak Oil may very well spell the end of ecomomics.

[Triffin]

Decommissioning info from Connecticut Yankee web site

Plants currently decommissioning:

Connecticut Yankee, Connecticut
Yankee Rowe, Massachusetts
Maine Yankee, Maine
Big Rock, Michigan
Trojan, Oregon
San Onofre 1, California


Plants that have completed decommissioning:

Shippingport, Pennsylvania
Pathfinder, South Dakota
Shoreham, New York
Fort St. Vrain, Colorado


Plants that have permanently shut down and delayed decommissioning because there are other nuclear units still operating on the same site or are in the process of evaluating their decommissioning options:

Dresden 1, Illinois
Fermi 1, Michigan
Humboldt Bay, California
Indian Point 1, New York
LaCrosse, Wisconsin
Peach Bottom 1, Pennsylvania
Rancho Seco, California
Three Mile Island 2, Pennsylvania
Millstone 1, Connecticut

Triff

[rwwff]

Hmmmm, well thats not the picture I had. (decommissioning)

Hate it when yall post something that makes me feel uncrazy for having plastic boxes with seeds that need winnowing..

Hate it worse when yall post something that makes me add another gold bar to my box even at $700 an ounce.

Hate it worst of all when yall post something that makes me want to drive up to the farm and plant another dozen peach trees. Fortunately, its summer, and I only plant trees Dec & Jan. I hate digging those monster holes, makes my shoulders hurt just thinking about it.

I think I will have to decide on a non-hybrid cucumber that I like soon though. Hybrids are just such explosive producers, I hate to give'em up.

[strider3700]

rwwff - Don't worry about it, you're still new here. It took me almost 6 months to decide that the doomers made a hell of a lot of sense and the optimists have a long history of things that are almost but not quite ready to go and save the world.

plant those window boxes and save some cash for those trees. They're probably going to be useful.

[rwwff]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('strider3700', 'r')wwff - Don't worry about it, you're still new here. It took me almost 6 months to decide that the doomers made a hell of a lot of sense and the optimists have a long history of things that are almost but not quite ready to go and save the world.

plant those window boxes and save some cash for those trees. They're probably going to be useful.

[KingM]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shady28', 'B')ut let's take a closer look. This is the breakdown by fifths of income in 2001 :

2001 $14,021 $32,466 $51,538 $76,646 $159,644 $280,312

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('grabby', '
')Biofuels are a non-event. They mean and will mean absolutely NOTHING at all.

[Loki]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Triffin', 'D')ecommissioning info from Connecticut Yankee web site

Plants currently decommissioning:

Connecticut Yankee, Connecticut
Yankee Rowe, Massachusetts
Maine Yankee, Maine
Big Rock, Michigan
Trojan, Oregon
San Onofre 1, California

Triff

[grabby]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('grabby', '
')Biofuels are a non-event. They mean and will mean absolutely NOTHING at all.

[rwwff]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('grabby', '
')if you burn this much COAL every year we will all choke to death.

[grom]

Some time ago i was more inclined to believe in a hard-crash-doom scenario, however, as the time passes and events develop, i am moving towards the soft-landing field represented in this discussion by rwwff.

The cause for my slow "change of sides" is INERTIA. I realized that the society i know has an awful LOT of inertia, not easy to overcome. Examples:

- Petrol price rises x2 (or x3?) in the last few years -> effect on society i know? about zero

- USA invades a petrol rich country in an obvious attempt to control the resources -> bussiness as usual

- Catastrophic tsunami in Asia -> effect? none

- New Orleans is destroyed by floods, some refineries too -> life goes on

- Assorted wars and violence throught the world -> bussiness as usual

- Periodic famine in Africa -> oh well...


What i am trying to say is that many events predicted are already happening, but the collapse of civilization is not occurring (yet).

People just want to carry on, so they will adapt to the difficulties, some better, some worse, some will die, maybe many will die.

I am sure that in some years in the future (the remaining) people will live with a lot less energy per capita, but barring 3rd world war, i am inclined to believe in a soft landing.

Of course this is just my humble, worthless opinion.

[mgibbons19]

rwwff,

I've appreciated your posts on this thread. I will disagree with many of the others and suggest that your perspective is refreshing, and I don't see some of the straw herrings the others do.

If I were to disagree with some of the posters here at PO.com, it would be in their approach to the philosophy of knowledge, and it's coming through in this thread. Knowing what we all know, isn't knowing everything. Further, we cannot know how it will turn out. All human knowledge is fallible, and hence, all human projections are too. Period.

I have recently been trending a little towards an analysis that is similar to yours. I have been thinking of lifestyle changes that will allow me to maximize my resources while we still have the good times. I can't think that tomorrow the whole system is going to descend into a useless mad max-ness. The downslope won't be pretty, and it won't be nice to poor folks. But as you suggest, there is quite a difference between that and hobbes' chaos.

further, even a casual analysis of history shows plenty of times where people have dealt with the situations around them, however unsavory. Whatever is coming, the US alone has dealt with the great depression, the civil war, settling the west. It sucked for the indians, and I hope we don't end up the same, but perhaps. Reading about France before its own unification, or Ireland even as recently as the 1900s-1910s reveals desperate rural poverty, but the people were living. Whatever comes will be dealt with. Sometimes here at PO, we assume that whatever comes, will be THE END OF THE WORLD.

[max_power29]

Also, do not forget, people often think of how they will deal with the extra expenses from a consumer point of view. Many businesses are highly competetive and have small margins of profit. they will become insolvent eventually and lay off their workers. The end result is that people that once had good paying jobs may not have any income at all and the ones that still do have jobs, will experience major downward pressure on their wages and benefits because of the endless supply of labor. For a real life example, I have an extra part time job in the armored transport industry. These trucks are literally behemoth armored personell carriers that suck down diesel like there is no tomorrow. The industry began becoming dysfunciontal at like $1.80 a gallon. Managers are stressing big time. There is massive pressure from above to cut costs. the industry is like the airlines in the sense that they can not raise prices because of too much competition. The industry is doomed. Armored transport is one of the "canaries in the coal mines" In the end it doesnt matter if you think prices are going to be affordable or not if you suddenly have ZERO income. I can't believe so many americans don't think about these problems from a business perspective, only a consumeris perspective. People at my work are like I can afford gas at 4,5, 10 bucks a gallon no problem I'm taking my new boat out with my excursion and driving thousands of miles to disneyland NO PROBLEMO. And I'm thinking what if this place shuts down? people just cant grasp the point at all

[jdmartin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('max_power29', 'A')lso, do not forget, people often think of how they will deal with the extra expenses from a consumer point of view. Many businesses are highly competetive and have small margins of profit. they will become insolvent eventually and lay off their workers. The end result is that people that once had good paying jobs may not have any income at all and the ones that still do have jobs, will experience major downward pressure on their wages and benefits because of the endless supply of labor. For a real life example, I have an extra part time job in the armored transport industry. These trucks are literally behemoth armored personell carriers that suck down diesel like there is no tomorrow. The industry began becoming dysfunciontal at like $1.80 a gallon. Managers are stressing big time. There is massive pressure from above to cut costs. the industry is like the airlines in the sense that they can not raise prices because of too much competition. The industry is doomed. Armored transport is one of the "canaries in the coal mines" In the end it doesnt matter if you think prices are going to be affordable or not if you suddenly have ZERO income. I can't believe so many americans don't think about these problems from a business perspective, only a consumeris perspective. People at my work are like I can afford gas at 4,5, 10 bucks a gallon no problem I'm taking my new boat out with my excursion and driving thousands of miles to disneyland NO PROBLEMO. And I'm thinking what if this place shuts down? people just cant grasp the point at all