[Don35]

I think we are being rational and missing the the irrational. FEAR! Wall Street even has a "Fear Index". As fuel prices rise fear increases and logic goes out the window. All arguments I've read here are logical. People in general (except for Peak Oilers are not. I have even been reacting with fear. Purchasing only minimally; only needed items, and items related to surviving PO. Don't underestimate the fear of the population.

[SoothSayer]

General comment: The high price of crude hitting YOUR retail car fuel prices is not the main point.

You may be able to pay say $20 gallon for fuel - however what will happen to the rest of the economy in the meantime?

Your job could disappear because your firm, or your customers, or their customers, or your staff, or your shippers have been "knocked out of the game" by high fuel costs hitting THEM!

At what price will mayhem set in? $4? $5? $6?

It's probably sooner than you might expect.

[thuja]

Depends what you mean by mayhem. Here's my guess

4 $ gas= march on Washington with 10's of thousands carrying empty gas containers, shouting "We need cheap gas!"

Could happen by the end of Summer after hurricaine season.



5 $ gas= Major economic restructuring as airline industries/automotive sectors tank and cause a ripple effect on the rest of the economy.

Will happen by late 2007 or earlier if a Sudden Dramatic Event (SDE) such as Saudia Arabia pipeline terrorism occurs.



6 $ gas= Crime rates soaring in poor neighborhoods; seeping into middle class neighborhoods. Riots due to peripheral effects of expensive energy- such as xenophobic scapegoating of dark skinned foreign born people. Unemployment rise to 15 %. Gas lines. Anger to the point of bloodshed in the streets regularly.

I predict 6 $ gas by end of 2008 due to the likelihood of a SDE.

[kochevnik]

I think (as usual) we're getting wrapped up in nitpicking about details - both analyses here have equal merit from my viewpoint.

Howeverr, and this is harsh but honest, to assume a slow change future you are also assuming that people will make the right decisions at the right time, rational decisions. I don't think history or society would support the success of this scenario.

Remember that 50 percent of people have IQ's under 100 and many of them are concentrated in the lower income ranges (dont get all PC on me either - I know that ALL poor people are not dumb). I dont believe they WILL make the right decisions.

And secondly what are the odds of an sudden event ?

I'd say they are quite high. Look at all the 'events' that have occurred in the last 5 years or so - and look at all the ones all primed to explode.

The smart money is on an 'event' of some kind in the next year or so - that's why crude oil futures for this winter are $5 higher than they are for next month.

Always goes back to how much you trust your govt and your fellow man.

Sorry to say, faith in the 'system' is seldom rewarded - just ask all those people who will never return to NOLA is they should trust that things will 'adjust' fairly and rationally.

[UIUCstudent01]

Calculating how much the gas costs per month doesn't include the increased costs for food... and everything else that is shipped... which includes just about everything.

There's going to be a tipping point where other countries (the rest of the world) may be able to demand more oil than the United States (thus diverting oil to other countries other than the U.S.) - I think that's when the pain really starts. Then there's the fact that nationalized industries may just stop exports by decree of some kind at some point.

[rwwff]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('UIUCstudent01', '
')doesn't include the increased costs for food... and everything else that is shipped

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rwwff', 'T')his illustrates a mistake a lot of folks seem to be making around here. It is certainly true that the US imports a very large amount of petroleum. What people don't credit in their analysis, is that the US produces, and will continue to produce for many decades to come, quite a large amount of oil as well. Thats not even including nuclear, coal, and wind for electricity, which will be increasing for the forseable future.

[denverdave]

As far as poor people switching cars when they can no longer afford gas, by the time gas is high enough to get people to look for a new vehicle, trading it in or even replacing a worn out vehicle will be out of the question. But that doesn't mean that people will have no options. Once there is enough people who can no longer afford to drive to work, carpooling and public transportation will become much more viable than they are now. Used SUVs will be so cheap that even poor people will be able to but one to drive the last few miles from a bus stop to their work and back. Unofficial "park'n'rides" will develop on an ad hoc basis in abandoned parking lots. People will set up neighborhood food co-ops in outer suburbs to eliminate trips to the grocery store.

[Wednesday]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('denverdave', 'P')eople will set up neighborhood food co-ops in outer suburbs to eliminate trips to the grocery store.

[rwwff]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rwwff', 'T')his illustrates a mistake a lot of folks seem to be making around here. It is certainly true that the US imports a very large amount of petroleum. What people don't credit in their analysis, is that the US produces, and will continue to produce for many decades to come, quite a large amount of oil as well. Thats not even including nuclear, coal, and wind for electricity, which will be increasing for the forseable future.

[smallpoxgirl]

To my mind this has little to do with American's experiencing real hardship. American's have a LONG way to go to get close to what poor people globaly make due with. Half the world's population gets by on under $2 per day. There's not a homeless person anywhere in the US doing that. Everyday on my way to work I pass by probably 2 or 3 fresh roadkill deers. Nobody takes them because it's illegal. They either rot on the shoulder or the county picks em up and takes em to the dump. That would *not* happen in Guatemala.

The point, IMHO, is not the actual hardship, but the sense of entitlement with which American's have been vested. American's expect to do better get more money fancier toys every year. They've been told this is their birth right. The question in my mind is how are American's going to react to the idea of less toys, less plane trips to Hawaii, etc. They are not going to take kindly to the idea that the American dream is over and it's time to wake up to a power-down world. The question then is the stability of the political fabric. I maintain that the political fabric of the US is pretty fragile and worn and that the thing that really holds it together is the oppulent extravegance we live in and the endless drive towards *more*. If the political fabric rips, then political disruptions could very well lead to real hardship. It's like Aaron says. "Be aware of Peak Oil. Beware of how your fellow monkeys will react to Peak Oil."

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rwwff', ' ')If you honestly believe any of those nuke plants will be retired, I've got a bridge to sell you in Manhattan.

[Ludi]

HOW will someone who has lost the job they used to commute to BUY a plug-in hybrid vehicle? HOW? With WHAT?

[rwwff]

Wow, you are a quote master. I do have a few questions though, so I'm going to snip-if-fy.

> nuke plants..

Can you name me three nuke plants in the US that were producing electricity in 1999 that have been shut down since then? If there are, it is certainly news to me, and I'd definately be interested in the correction.

> wind.

I honestly believe that by 2050 wind will make it past 1% of electricity generation. Do you disagree?

> Having the lights on does little to address the liquid fuels problem.

Thats all I was asking that these analysts acknowledge, that the lights WILL be on. Electriicty will be available, and it will not be catastrophically expensive.

>> smooth curve (1/x like)
> No? Experts around the world agree production from
> existing oilfields is declining between 3 and 5 percent per year.

Exactly. EXISTING FIELDS.

Though to be honest, we mostly agree, cheap liquid energy is a thing of the past. But, I also don't think "collapse" is the right word to describe the likely results. Certainly, it fuels the nihilistic anarchist drives in human nature to use that word, but there is a huge gulf of possibilities between recession and collapse of civilization.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')nce you ditch the commuting model of work (which is a fairly recent fad), you end up with daily driving (school, church, groceries) all well within the range of the electric side of a plug-in-hybrid; and the occassional expedition which is rare, but the gasoline side of the motor is there to do that task.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rwwff', ' ')Can you name me three nuke plants in the US that were producing electricity in 1999 that have been shut down since then? If there are, it is certainly news to me, and I'd definately be interested in the correction.

[rwwff]

We're talking past each other apparently.

I am largely content to allow market forces to play out, regardless of the path it follows. I am of the opinion that any path chosen by government or individual mandate will be orders of magnitude worse than paths taken by market forces.

We largely agree on the availability of electricty and liquid fuel. I don't think I quite agree with where yall think it ends up; I have a bit more faith that the markets, when given appropriate signals concerning scarcity, will adapt appropriately.

I have to be honest though, me and mine will be fine whichever way it turns out. Whether I die of old age sittin in the A/C writing Open Source code for fun, or whether I die well tanned behind a plow and mule listening to the grandkids pickin the blackberry's before they're ready.... its all good. (as long as I don't die while planting the rice paddy, that is...)

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rwwff', 'I') have a bit more faith that the markets, when given appropriate signals concerning scarcity, will adapt appropriately.

[rwwff]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rwwff', 'I') have a bit more faith that the markets, when given appropriate signals concerning scarcity, will adapt appropriately.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rwwff', 'S')upply will crush demand.

[rwwff]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rwwff', 'S')upply will crush demand.