by rs » Tue 09 May 2006, 04:11:30
Yes, yesterday was one of my 'doomer' days!
I hear what you are saying and I have tried, many many times over the last 12 months to talk to people I know about these issues. They have on the whole been rational discussions but overall, nobody really wants to know. They've got families, mortgages, cars, jobs, World Cup to think about. They just dont want to think about climate change, fossil fuel depletion, Iraq, Iran. Which makes me believe, in general, people will only change once they are faced with a problem, not beforehand unless those decisions are made for them.
For example, if petrol hits £10 a gallon, folks will dust off their bicycles and ride to work. You try convincing them to do it now. Scale that up and try to get the whole world to change together and then throw into the mix, race, religion, location of natural resources, wealth and so on. Forgive me if I fail to be optimistic of the outcome!
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gigacannon', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rs', 'S')orry mate, you really believe the entire world is going to sit around a campfire and sing Koom By Ah ?
There's only one way humanity is headed and that is down the plughole.
It's those sorts of statements that shy people away from treating peak oil as the statistical inevitability it is. Saying things like that makes you sound like some kind of pessimistic secular Jehova's Witness. No-one likes Jehova's Witnesses, because they insist that the world is going to end and don't enlighten us as to how they know this.
Peak oil might well be ready to happen, but nothing else is certain. How? When? What will be the result? How will people cope? None of us can prove any of it.
What you can do is show that there are certain economic tangents that are likely to lead to bad things happening. If you can show that within a reasonable degree of probability, then people might believe you. And even if you don't think so, it might actually stop it from happening. Can you live with averting your own prophecy? Because even if you can't, then if you at least put up a decent argument before the fact and make someone believe you instead of saying, 'Oh, the world is gonna end' and die of starvation knowing that you and
only you knew it was going to happen.
Nobody's gonna believe you with that 'doomer' perspective on things, and whilst you're doing that, it's gonna make it a whole lot harder for the rest of us to get our point across.
For the record, I reckon that there's a decent chance that the US will attack Iran within the next six months. No, I don't think that there's anything we can do about that. But what I do know is that given that scenario, we have a six month window in which to research and show all the evidence we've collected to everyone, and let them make their own decisions, and maybe come out of it with a few more people skills and a better argument. If we're right, we'll have proved something, and have something to lord over people about, and if we're wrong, we can at least make people think.