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PeakOil is You

THE Collapse of the US Thread (merged)

A forum for discussion of regional topics including oil depletion but also government, society, and the future.

Postby Guest » Sun 11 Jul 2004, 23:30:05

Can you say "Urban Myth"? Good I knew you could.

http://www.snopes.com/politics/quotes/tyler.asp
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Postby Leanan » Mon 12 Jul 2004, 00:15:11

The Snopes article doesn't really come down one way or the other.

In any case, 200 years is very old for a democracy, and quite respectible for a complex society in general.
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Leanan justifies plunder as necessary

Postby Fellow slave » Mon 12 Jul 2004, 00:28:21

I cannot agree that it is necessary to have more government because life is supposedly more complex. If 5% of the economy was all that was necessary in 1776 then by extrapolation, 200 years before that time when times were less complex, then there should have been even less government. Is there any coorelation to complexity and the total take of the economic pie by the ruling powers? I think not except for the following:

The origin of government began when mankind began to accumulate surplus and became sedintary rather than wandering. Before that there was nothing much worth plundering, and any attempt to plunder resulted in flight. Agriculture and herding changed that. Indiscriminate plunder was a problem; eventually it was solved by a agreement by the producers and the strongest plunderers for protection. The producers paid a steady tribute to the powerful in return for protection against random plunder by other aggressors. Government was born and ever since it has been a constant plunder varying in amount based on what was available to plunder and how much the government could get away with without significant resistance. It didn't take long for the plunder to reach the equivalent of slavery and most of human history has been this slavery. There have been small periods of time when the plunder collapsed and a period of freedom ensued. Out of these brief periods of history came most of human advance. The remainder of time in slavery resulted in economic stagnation and a distribution of wealth characteristic of slavery. Just because you cannot see iron chains on your ankles does not mean that they are not there in the less visible form of "laws" having the same effect as those iron chains.

You are simply appoligizing for slavery when you say that this massive plunder by the current US government is necessary based on complexity. First of all there are countless freemarket private alternatives to the communal solutions that have been imposed by our masters. It was only 75 years old when one US Civil War occurred, which, contrary to popular belief, was not to free the Negro slaves. Had it not been for the exploitation of hydrocarbons and the associated increase in living conditions, then we would have had another test of the US government as a result of the depression of the 1930's.

Can you imagine what will happen when survival comes into question as a result the economic collapse associated with declining energy and the related production of economic goods? Think government will volunteer to reduce plunder or that people barely surviving will look kindly to being exploited by government? Think people won't blame the government that has falsly for years laid claim to credit for economic conditions? This is a volcano waiting to explode, and it won't be pretty nor will it be easy to sit on the sidelines as is always the case with social breakdowns of this nature.
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Postby Chicagoan » Mon 12 Jul 2004, 01:40:29

The post-peak world will be so different then the oil age that it is unlikely that the government will survive in its present form. What is needed is a constitutional convention that returns power to the states. The role of the central government is to handle foreign relations and a postal service. We need some sort of union to keep the peace between the states. Look at European history to see what happens when you have no central governent. European countries are about the size of American states after all.
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Postby Guest » Mon 12 Jul 2004, 08:16:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Leanan', 'T')he Snopes article doesn't really come down one way or the other.

In any case, 200 years is very old for a democracy, and quite respectible for a complex society in general.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_code('', '
However, there is no record of The Fall of the Athenian Republic or The Decline and Fall of the Athenian Republic in the Library of Congress, which has several other titles by Tytler.
')

Sounds pretty concrete to me.

Jay's right you guys have blinders on and are unable to see anything other than what you want.
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Postby Aaron » Mon 12 Jul 2004, 08:48:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')ounds pretty concrete to me.

Jay's right you guys have blinders on and are unable to see anything other than what you want.


With 1/2 millions views, and an average of 10,000 views per day, and thousands of posts it may be less than accurate to categorize "you guys" based on 3 posts.

* Just a thought
The problem is, of course, that not only is economics bankrupt, but it has always been nothing more than politics in disguise... economics is a form of brain damage.

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Postby Leanan » Mon 12 Jul 2004, 09:56:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he origin of government began when mankind began to accumulate surplus and became sedintary rather than wandering.


This is the Marxist view, and while it has its points, Tainter argues that it's not enough to fully explain the rise of complex societies.

However, you are right in that authorities need return only a small portion of they take to maintain their legitimacy. Collapse comes when they can no longer do even that.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')ou are simply appoligizing for slavery when you say that this massive plunder by the current US government is necessary based on complexity.


No, I don't think I am. For one thing, you can always leave. Heck, I have. I came back.

Rather, there are some problems that are too large for individuals to solve. Yes, we probably would be better off if we were all egalitarian hunter-gatherers. But notice that there aren't many hunter-gatherers left? They've been pushed to the least desirable areas. (The Artic, the Kalahari desert, etc.) Because when push comes to shove, the more complex society wins. Even Libertarians agree that the federal government should provide for the national defense.

Tainter uses as example an ancient near east society where the problem was irrigation increasing the salinity of the soil. Eventually, a complex society arose that created a complex irrigation system that prevented the buildup of salinity. This was so large and so complex that individual villages would never have been able to do it on their own.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')However, there is no record of The Fall of the Athenian Republic or The Decline and Fall of the Athenian Republic in the Library of Congress, which has several other titles by Tytler.

Sounds pretty concrete to me.


But they also leave open the possibility that he said it somewhere else.

In any case, the point stands, regardless of who said it: we are not young, as democracies go. And 200 years is a respectable age for any society. Moreover, some would count our civilization as going back much farther, since it's built on the ones Europeans established.
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US economic collapse in 2005

Postby aldente » Sat 30 Oct 2004, 13:38:18

new reading from William Engdahl:

http://globalresearch.ca/articles/ENG407A.html
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Postby Rembrandt » Sat 30 Oct 2004, 14:41:21

thx, very insightful article im finally starting to understand a bit of the way how economics work
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Postby Kingcoal » Sat 30 Oct 2004, 14:56:40

Good article. I currently have three mortgages. A fixed rate primary mortgage, a variable rate home equity loan and a fixed rate mortgage on a rental property. I have no other debt of any kind. The variable rate loan has been paid down to about $20K. I bought both properties prior to 2000.

As a democrat, I've been in a state of constant shock for the past four years. Just when I'd thought that I'd seen everything, Bush and his minions would somehow increase the level of stupidity and arrogance. Hopefully, our great country will be liberated from bondage come Tuesday. Unfortunately, so much damage has been done, that it will take years to undo. Hopefully it's not too late.

What worries me though, is that I've seen such bad judgement and provincialism from a lot of my fellow Americans, I'm concerned about their reaction to the coming downturn. They've been programmed to shoot first and keep shooting until their out of ammo.
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Postby skateari » Sat 30 Oct 2004, 16:09:05

this is exactly what I have been predicting for the last few months, except it seems like its going to happen sooner then I thought. I was thinking 2006'ish but 2005 seems even more possible now. If people cant understand our economy, they cant understand what effects peak oil will have when it comes to industrial societies. Full blown dollar collapse I think will be mid 2005-early 2006. This system just cant be sustained for much longer, and the only thing our government can do/say is "dont worry".
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Postby Agren » Sat 30 Oct 2004, 17:13:04

Thanks a lot man, you just ruined another nights sleep for me... this is some scary stuff, not really new, maybe, but it's scary nontheless...

thanks for the link, very interesting read
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Postby aldente » Sat 30 Oct 2004, 22:44:42

I highly recommend Endahls book "A Century of War", available on Amazon in the US since two weeks. In Germany do a seach under "Mit der Ölwaffe zur Weltmacht". It is a real eye-opener!
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Postby JohnDenver » Sun 31 Oct 2004, 00:01:29

A lot of unsubstantiated crap in the referenced article, i.e.:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ashington reports are that Bush made a deal to re-appoint Greenspan on the promise Greenspan would keep the economy growing until the elections.


Who reported this? Cite?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')ome economists fear a new Great Depression like the 1930's.


The vast majority of economists do not fear a new Great Depression like the 1930's.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')ome industry experts fear a "bloodbath" in 2005.


Who are these experts? How accurate have their predictions been so far?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he Bush Administration reportedly manipulated employment statistics to show better job growth for the election.


Who reported this?

----

This article is just anti-US cheerleading, promoted by a leftist organization with a self-admitted grudge against Wall Street and capitalism. They're predicting a collapse not because it's likely, but because that's their big wish.

It won't collapse, but that won't stop them. They'll be predicting the collapse of the US for 2005, and 2006, and 2007, and 2008, and 2009 etc. etc. ad nauseum. It's like sticking pins in a voodoo doll. It makes them feel better.
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Postby JohnDenver » Sun 31 Oct 2004, 00:25:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('skateari', 'F')ull blown dollar collapse I think will be mid 2005-early 2006.


Kewl...
Speaking of predictions, I have a couple:
1) Full blown dollar collapse will not occur in 2005 or 2006.
2) You will learn nothing from this, and will continue to make erroneous predictions.
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Postby Guest » Sun 31 Oct 2004, 00:28:54

I was hoping the article would be BS, but as soon as I saw that John Denver indicated it was false, I realized the article is probably speaking the plain truth.
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Postby skateari » Sun 31 Oct 2004, 01:11:46

good point guest.. was thinking the same thing :-D

Yeah that article is full of a lot of fact, just because hes not citing every source does not mean its wrong. I think this guy knows what hes talking about, not only is the paper logical, but full of truth (housing bubble collapse, what would happen with a Fed. interest rate hike).


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'K')ewl...
Speaking of predictions, I have a couple:
1) Full blown dollar collapse will not occur in 2005 or 2006.
2) You will learn nothing from this, and will continue to make erroneous predictions.


KEWL DOOD! duhhh... 8O

How can you say im making erroneous predictions? Are you a physicic yourself and know whats going to happen in the future, sure seems so. You keep in your box and dont look at other things, and in two years just see who is right and who is wrong. You keep investing your money in the stockmark, keep you money is dollars. If it floats your boat, dont worry, its fine with me.

Im very sorry for making "erroneous predictions" on the future (but is it 2005-6 yet?.. umm.. ) LOL! :shock:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')his article is just anti-US cheerleading, promoted by a leftist organization with a self-admitted grudge against Wall Street and capitalism. They're predicting a collapse not because it's likely, but because that's their big wish.

It won't collapse, but that won't stop them. They'll be predicting the collapse of the US for 2005, and 2006, and 2007, and 2008, and 2009 etc. etc. ad nauseum. It's like sticking pins in a voodoo doll. It makes them feel better.


Just because they are not so full of optomistic glee like you, and make a bold prediction does not mean they are a 'leftist organization with a self-admitted grudge against Wall Street'. Who the hell holds a grudge against a stock market? LOL. I doubt the author gives a shit if you believe him or not, the people who can open there eyes to the truth instead of denying pure logic will be the ones gaining from the knowledge. You go back to sailing down the denile river, and when the waterfall approachs ahead, remember what people were tying to tell you.

Hell, I could always be wrong, this is just my opinion. Your entitled to yours as well, but im not going to say yours is wrong. Its funny that article does not even mention peak oil, yet PO effects can already be seen by the decrease in the dollar value and the massive inflation in housing prices. I mean I love the American way of life, I love the movies, I love my savings account, but I also love to know what the future might hold for me. If I read something that clicks with everything else I have ever learned, then something tells me its the truth. I feel that we are enjoying the bubblebath now, but now all the bubbles are about to burst.. and all anyone can do is say 'dont worry' (like they have been the last few weeks...). It all just goes together, it makes sense. Well to me at least. For you, I dont care if you believe me but just because my opinion is different from yours, does not mean I cant say what I think!. I'll try to pick up a crystal ball like you seem to got going so I can accuratly predict the future, dont want any errors or anything :cry: [/quote]
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Postby Chocky » Sun 31 Oct 2004, 02:31:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hey're predicting a collapse not because it's likely, but because that's their big wish.


Whether you wish for something or not, doesn't change how likely it is to happen.

I'm not predicting an imminent collapse. Maybe because I just can't conceptualise such drastic events taking place over such a small space of time. Seems to me that what you could call a 'collapse' depends on so many factors it's pretty hard to predict even a rough timeframe.

I was thinking about the members of this board who consistently argue that making any preparations whatsoever to cope with possible food shortages, social upheaval etc are uncessary because the government/UN will take care of them. That's a pretty convenient way of thinking since it means you don't have to do anything for yourself at all. Is this what motivates them? It's also interesting how Europeans and Americans tend to have noticeably different outlooks on these issues.
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Postby Specop_007 » Sun 31 Oct 2004, 02:55:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Kingcoal', '
')What worries me though, is that I've seen such bad judgement and provincialism from a lot of my fellow Americans, I'm concerned about their reaction to the coming downturn. They've been programmed to shoot first and keep shooting until their out of ammo.


To Hell with double tap! I'm goin to slide lock!!

:-D
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Postby Guest » Sun 31 Oct 2004, 03:11:44

JD,

I've got some Enron stock to sell you. Ignore the people who question their questionable and extraordinarily complex accounting practices that absolutely nobody can make heads or tales of. They are just self-proclaimed psychics who hold grudges against successfull corporations.

Its not that Enron is going to implode so much as it is these leftists wishing/hoping it will!

Guest

PS: if anybody wants to get an expert opinion on how to prepare, where to invest, what to do in the next few years simply ask JD for his opinion and expect the exact opposite to happen.
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