[Starvid]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')eaking of World Oil Production:The Mitigation Challenge byRobert L. Hirsch, Senior Energy Program Advisor, SAIC
National Research Council Workshop on Trends in Oil Supply and Demand and Potential for Peaking of Conventional Oil Production, 21 Oct 2005:
Overview
• Peaking of world conventional oil production is unavoidable, but the timing is uncertain.

• Mitigation technologies are available.
• Implementation will be the challenge.
• World oil consumption is enormous so mitigation will be a huge worldwide undertaking.

There are no quick fixes. [...] We’re finding much less than we’re consuming.

Trouble!

Fundamentals
Peaking is maximum production, not running out. It’s a liquid fuels problem. [...]

• World oil peaking impacts could last more than a decade.
• The world has never faced a problem like oil peaking - The first forced energy transition. [...]

Summary & Conclusions
Oil peaking timing is uncertain.
• It may be soon.
• “Soon” is less that 20 years according to our analysis.

Peaking = World’s first forced energy transition. It’s a world liquid fuels problem. A number of mitigation technologies are ready. With timely mitigation, economic damage can be minimized.

[ReserveGrowthRulz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lorenzo', '
')In short, when it comes "mitigation", the Hirsch report is totally useless because it has no grasp of what's going on out there. This might be due to several factors: the fact that it was written a long time ago (1990s?, please do not say 2005, because then we can only conclude that Hirsch is an idiot) incompetence of the authors, censorship, influence of lobbies, who knows.

[seahorse]

Hey Reservegrowth,

When will reserve additions in the United States allow the US to become an exporter of oil again?

Same question for the North Sea?

Is natural gas in the United States in depletion?

Assuming natural gas in the United States is in depletion, what is the alternative fuel source for natural gas in the United States for generating electricity?

Why is the price of oil going up since 2000 and not down?

Why has Saudi oil production remained flat since 2004?

What is the depletion rate of producing Saudi fields?

[JustinFrankl]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lorenzo', '{')merged by MQ}

I just had a look at the often quoted "Hirsch" report. I find it surprising that the President of the United States points to biofuels as the future for the United States, while this Hirsch report mentions it only in one very short paragraph. Very strange.
How can there be such a discrepancy? I assume that the President has had discussions with countless advisors that went beyond one pityful paragraph. Else he wouldn't stake America's future on biofuels, would he?

So let's have a look at why the Hirsch report is totally bogus on biofuels.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')VI. MITIGATION OPTIONS AND ISSUES
E. Liquid FueIs from U.S. Domestic Resources

[lorenzo]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JustinFrankl', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lorenzo', '{')merged by MQ}

I just had a look at the often quoted "Hirsch" report. I find it surprising that the President of the United States points to biofuels as the future for the United States, while this Hirsch report mentions it only in one very short paragraph. Very strange.
How can there be such a discrepancy? I assume that the President has had discussions with countless advisors that went beyond one pityful paragraph. Else he wouldn't stake America's future on biofuels, would he?

So let's have a look at why the Hirsch report is totally bogus on biofuels.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')VI. MITIGATION OPTIONS AND ISSUES
E. Liquid FueIs from U.S. Domestic Resources

[keehah]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') just had a look at the often quoted "Hirsch" report. I find it surprising that the President of the United States points to biofuels as the future for the United States, while this Hirsch report mentions it only in one very short paragraph. Very strange.

[SoothSayer]

I don't know if this has been seen by everyone, but Hirsch's latest update contains this gem:

If the peaking of world conventional oil production occurs before 2025, the U.S. may not have a choice in terms of a massive national physical mitigation program.

2025??? Oh well, that's it then ....

Check ODAC site for the PDF - probably impolite for me to link to them without permission

[Zardoz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SoothSayer', '[')i]Check ODAC site for the PDF - probably impolite for me to link to them without permission

[gnm]

massive national physical mitigation program? What the heck does that mean? Sorry folks, you're walking everywhere so we can continue to fly congress around in private learjets and keep the military rolling so you'll put up and shut up?

-G

[Barbara]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'm')assive national physical mitigation program

[EnergySpin]

I suppose you read the first page right?
He examines only 4 options .... (page 2) and policy options are clearly missing.
There is no mention of conservation/mass transit even a litl bit of BF.
The only conclusion that may be drawn from this study is that business as usual (more gasoline) is an infeasible plan. Therefore it is back to the drawing board; try electricifcation of trasportation (wasn't there a post at energybulletin.net or TOD?)
In any case, Hirsch did summarize his findings in a very objective manner:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')If the U.S. becomes seriously motivated to decrease its dependence on oil imports, then multiple paths will be required, even paths beyond those considered in this study. The purpose of this study was to bracket what would be required in what we defined as the best, limiting case of physical mitigation.
Using the information generated in the previous study and herein, people will hopefully be able to make more informed decisions, should they decide to embark on massive physical mitigation.

[Atlantean_Relic]

No, It mean We are all walking in Giant Hamster wheels to keep the light in DC on.

[garyp]

Interesting, but its only the exec summary not the final report.

Three things:

- There is no mention of other approaches to the transportation problem, including ethanol, nuclear/electric, bikes, etc. There is probably a reason why they were told to do this, but it does reduce the usefulness significantly.

- Options studied are in the main 'dirty', such as oil shale and coal based. These should be at the end of the line of options, not the beginning. No account is taken of the environmental impact, CO2 targets, etc. A significant failure.

- Mention is made of 'crash' programme, but the assumptions are quite gradual and cumulative. In practice although there is often a lag, progress is usual much more 'crash' than this. For instance 50% increase in total US fuel economy after 8 years could and probably will be achieved much faster. The technology is there already and a change in tax treatment could kick start the process, aided by social drivers.

In general this reads like political report, emphasising the employment benefits over the security benefits. However it does point up how relatively constrained changes can help mitigate peak oil effects. The final report will be interesting for the assumption that drive this thinking.

[Jack]

Thank you for the post - that's important information.

Gratuitous I-told-you-so moment: there is simply no way that biofuels and a variety of nonsense techno pseudo-solutions is going to make this go away.

Which means - we had best recognize that the worst case scenario is coming. That means resource wars, a massive die-off, and all the rest. Those nations that can transition to fortresses had best do so. Those that cannot or will not face extinction.

[EnergySpin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Barbara', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'm')assive national physical mitigation program

[sameu]

hm why does the graph shows that domestic production will peak in 2010?

anywho, this is every peakoilers' (optimist and doomer) biggest enemy: time

we're running out of it, at a ratio of one day per day

[gnm]

Yeah and in the absence of being able to produce large amounts of fuel I guess that goes to the _save_ large amounts portion of his definition...

Yup we're walking. Oh and forget about shipping goods and groceries around.


-G

[EnergySpin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gnm', '
')Yup we're walking. Oh and forget about shipping goods and groceries around.


-G

[Geko45]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Atlantean_Relic', 'N')o, It means we are all walking in Giant Hamster wheels to keep the light in DC on.

[Jack]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('garyp', '-') There is no mention of other approaches to the transportation problem, including ethanol, nuclear/electric, bikes, etc. There is probably a reason why they were told to do this, but it does reduce the usefulness significantly.