[Cynus]

The argument for peak oil pessimism starts out like this:
1. As we near the peak the price of oil will begin to rise sharply.
2. Despite additional exploration and drilling, production will not be able to rise.
3. This will cause inflation increases.
4. This will also cause a rush to seek alternatives to oil.
5. None of the alternatives will be sufficient to replace oil.

It seems to me that steps 1 - 4 have all been confirmed (step 4 being illustrated by the recent stock prices of ethanol companies). The jury is still out on step 5, we haven't reached that point yet.

In contrast, the cornucopian argument goes like this:
6. High oil prices will result in increased supply.

It only makes one prediction, and so far it has been dis-confirmed.

The peak oil optimist disputes step 5, thinking that the alternatives will be sufficient to replace oil. The jury is still oil on this, but luckily or unluckily, we all have a front-row seat to see who will be proved right.

[basil_hayden]

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2006/05/ ... 9740.shtml

Well JD, it looks like food prices are about to double again.

What was that you were saying on your blog about petroleum's relatively insignificant contribution to agriculture?