[JohnDenver]

What's the latest oil price? $75?

Let's see... since its lows in the late 90s, oil has now

GONE UP BY %650

So where's all those scary peak oil effects people?? You know, the knock-on effects caused by the end of cheap oil.

Call me crazy, but when I step out my front door, things look EXACTLY like they did when oil wasn't cheap. I mean EXACTLY. The roads are choked and overflowing with cars. The freeways are clogged with traffic jams so long you can't even see the end of them. The shelves in the supermarket still look the same. Same products. Same prices. Tidal waves of plastic junk, curios and fresh vegetables continue to fly in from all corners of the earth. Plastic bags continue to be as plentiful as they've ever been. There's been no perceptible slack-off in junk mail volume.

Seriously, if you blindfolded me, put me in a time machine, took the blindfold off, and then asked me: Where are we? Are we in 1998 with an oil glut, or in 2006 after the end of cheap oil, I wouldn't be able to tell the difference.

So come on people. The reality just isn't matching up with the rhetoric. Where's the die-off? And the marauders? And the sky-rocketing prices at the supermarket? And the implosion of Walmart? And the death of Phoenix? And the shootings at Gas-n-Go? And the failure of oil-intensive agriculture? And the mass migrations from the suburbs? And the endless depression? And the collapse of the dollar? And the collapse of fiat money? And hyper-inflation? And deflation? And the nuking of Iran? And the popping of the housing bubble? And the reinstitution of the draft? And China and the U.S. nuking each over Campbell's soup cans?

All that stuff was supposed to be caused by high oil prices. Well, we got the high oil prices. So where's the beef?

I'm not asking for the whole 100 yards here, folks, just some slight indication. A sign...

How am I going to know -- not from some link on the Internet, but from the direct immediate evidence of my senses -- that the TS is hitting TF, and I am about to gravely regret all my foolish mocking of doom? C'mon, throw me a bone.

For example, when am I going to turn on the radio and hear: "Well folks, there are no traffic backups this morning." Or, go to the supermarket and see a little sign: "There will be no more avocadoes from Mexico anymore." Or see some hot rodding kids driving slow to conserve gas. You know, that little special something which will really bring it home for me.

[Wildwell]

1. Prices have been absorbed by cutting other costs.
2. Beware of physical shortages.
3. Don't forget to adjust for inflation.

But you know my opinion JD, people should try and do without their cars more and not be so bone idle.

[Andy]

Oil at $75 per barrel is still cheap. It just shows how ridiculously cheap oil was in the 90's. When it gets into the region of $150 or whatever it takes to allocate scarcity by price, let's have a discussion then.

[emersonbiggins]

This relatively peaceful prelude leading into PO has been brought to you by:

A) Burgeoning consumer debt
B) Negative savings rate
C) Burgeoning federal deficits

Oh, what a hangover it will be when the bill comes due.

[Pretorian]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '
')All that stuff was supposed to be caused by high oil prices. Well, we got the high oil prices. So where's the beef?

[Anthrobus]

hello John Denver

you are right - at the moment - for whatever reasons. I too dream of waking up in a supposedly desastrous future and ... the sky is blue and friendly, trees are growing, the grass is green, everything is allright, -but wait- why don't i see a car or a plane?

No, you reasonably dispute the effects of po by demanding some points (bones, as you say) to identify the detrimental effects of po (prooving global warming is even more difficult). Peakoilers may have some wishful thinking to see break down what they disgust. On the other hand, some effects may already take place in 3rd world countries while people elswhere like you just funnel more money into the fuel market, cutting back other expenses.

So this should become some kind of sticky thread with some defined fingerprint for po in advance. Lets say world oil output sinking for 6 month in a row; crude oil > 100$; dow and other indices down 25 % from 24.4.06; gold > 1.000 $, 10% fewer cars registered in US, Germany than in 2005; Gwahar Oil field officially in decline; Governments derlaring goals to end dependency from fossil fuels (e.g. sweden), people freezing to death in their homes in "rich" countries (difficult to quantify); ghost towns appearing in unbearably remote locations (diff.), air conditioners too expensive to operate in summer (diff) ...

any more ideas for a defined fingerprint? I like the idea to see one day po declared officially in this forum.

But be sure that po has the potential to hit very quick with declining production rates, increasing domestic demand of producing countries, increasing oil "nationalism" (Chavez, Achadi-whatthefuck), and the increasing awareness of "evil" big producers like iran, that they will make more money (or at least the same) by lowering their production than by increasing it. This one producer has already the power to pull the rug unter the us and world economy. Thats a fairly large bone i guess, have a chew.

once again, good point of you; sorry, must go back to work

[emersonbiggins]

Whoops, I forgot:

D) Home Refi ATM
E) Third-world demand destruction

[Kez]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', 'A')ll that stuff was supposed to be caused by high oil prices. Well, we got the high oil prices. So where's the beef?

[killJOY]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') sign...

[emersonbiggins]

Where's the beef??

Well, compared to the late 90s with oil in the teens, beef is now HIGHER THAN EVER!

[web]http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/FC/M[/web]

[KrellEnergySource]

I think emersonbiggins hit the nail on the head. I was going to respond about the federal budget shortfalls and borrowing.

We're choosing to spend our money and our equity on necessities and consumer goods. We are not even coming close to keeping up with the bills required to maintain the USA itself.

[JohnDenver]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Andy', 'O')il at $75 per barrel is still cheap.

[MOCKBA]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KrellEnergySource', 'I') think emersonbiggins hit the nail on the head. I was going to respond about the federal budget shortfalls and borrowing.

We're choosing to spend our money and our equity on necessities and consumer goods. We are not even coming close to keeping up with the bills required to maintain the USA itself.

[Petroleo]

I would agree that oil is still cheap. Diesel fuel has been rising the last year, so the other day I made a calculation to see whether I should start commuting by public transport instead of by car. After putting all costs together for driving (insurance, maintenance, depreciation, road tax, fuel, parking space), and compare that to the costs of train and metro subscriptions, and then taking into account the extra travel time that I would spend with public transport, and taking into account lost income because of that extra time (I make money by the hour), I reached two conclusions:
1. Even if public transport were free today, which it ain't, I would still loose more money in lost income than I would save with not owning a car
2. Assuming all other amounts stay equal, i.e. no rise in insurance rates etc. and public transport tariffs, the cost of diesel would have to rise sevenfold in order to make the TCO of a car make up for lost income due to extra travel time.

So there it is. I won't consider giving up my car until diesel reaches around 7 EURO per litre.

[emersonbiggins]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Petroleo', '
')1. Even if public transport were free today, which it ain't, I would still loose more money in lost income than I would save with not owning a car.

[Dreamtwister]

Two words: "Consumer debt".

It's no coincidence that the bankruptcy bill was such a high priorety for the Bush administration. They KNEW everyone would have to leverage themselves beyond any hope of repayment.

[Petroleo]

I work as a freelance software engineer. My client requires me to be on site and does not provide VPN connections because of security reasons, so I working from home is not an option. For the same reason, since there are no remote connections, I can't work in the train with a wireless connection from a laptop. Commuting by public transport takes more than twice as long as driving. Travel time I can't invoice. the shorter the travel time, the more hours I make. I wouldn't like to make up for that by going home later, because I would arrive home every day at 9:00 pm.

In my particular case, and I won't say that that goes for everyone, diesel is very cheap because of the time I save with driving.

[emersonbiggins]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Petroleo', 'I')n my particular case, and I won't say that that goes for everyone, diesel is very cheap because of the time I save with driving.

[Aaron]

Whatever the trickle-down economic impacts are, it's difficult to imagine this 650% increase as an indication that oil production has not already peaked.

It's actually a fairly compelling argument supporting peak right now...

[Petroleo]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emersonbiggins', '
')Unique case, indeed. Even if you're able to weather 7x the cost of diesel, I can guarantee that 20 others won't. And those 20 may make your current job a moot point, anyways. Therein lies the problem.