[Doctor_Platos]

Check it out y'all, people are willing to pay $5 a gallon for regime change in Iran.

How the @#$% this idiot got 83 recommendations is beyond me. America is in a true state of denial.

[CrudeAwakening]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('aflurry', 'h')ere's my theory:

industry requires an input, without which it wouldn't exist: funding - which comes from two sources. issuance of debt, the service of which is dependent of economic expansion. and issuance of equity securities, which amounts to a pyramid scheme and as such is also dependent on if not actual economic expansion, at least an optimistic belief in continued expansion.

economic expansion also requires input, without which it wouldn't exist: ever increasing amounts of cheap energy which for 150 years has come in the form of snowballing oil production.

industry in its present form exists only within the context of the upslope in oil production. there is no preparation possible within industry for PO. It is as they say, "outside the paradigm."

so, if preparation is impossible, what do you look for as a sign that people undertstand that this system is in for a serious imminent rupture? cashing out. watch for people taking the short term gain over the long term. watch for nihilism trumping optimism. wars for profit. excessive risk taking. outright thievery. gangsterism. paranoia and fear leading to apocalyptic religious delusions.

tell me you don't see these signs.

[LadyRuby]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Mechler', 'T')his is what I've encountered when confronting other people, and I assume it applies to most everyone, even the "elite":

1. Ignorance - no idea of the problem
2. Optimism - "they" will figure something out
3. Distraction - too many other things to worry about
4. Denial - "that can't happen"

[Zardoz]

Fine post, EJ.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ElijahJones', '.')..I would suggest reading the Hirsch Report...

[venky]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('LadyRuby', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Mechler', 'T')his is what I've encountered when confronting other people, and I assume it applies to most everyone, even the "elite":

1. Ignorance - no idea of the problem
2. Optimism - "they" will figure something out
3. Distraction - too many other things to worry about
4. Denial - "that can't happen"

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Wolfeyes', 'B')ut there is no sign of preparation from industry/politicians - almost nothing

[azreal60]

Never assume conspiracy when mere stupidity will suffice as an explanation.

Can't remember who first said that to give credit, but there it is. The people who don't know about this are about 90% of humanity. The 10 percent who do know about it are divided into the 9 percent who can't do dick about it anyway, and the 1 percent who might actually have a chance at doing something about it can't because the 90 percent would vote them out of office before their changes could take effect.

Not to mention it's against their personal ideologies in almost all cases. They just can't believe it. Politicians are very ideological thinkers. They believe their idea's are real even if they are not. Don't get me wrong, in some way's I'm a politician who hasn't been elected to office yet. And I'll do my level best to do something about this when I do get elected, but honestly, the day I full out admit what I'm planning for, if I'm in an office above state level there is a good chance I'll get voted out next election. Unless the effects of peak oil are so undeniable, and hence already way past mitigating to any great effect, then it would be too easy to use this as a wako point of distinction. As in " that guy is nuts". Think Howard Dean. (who I greatly admire, but it cost him a chance at the presidency to be labled a nut)

That wandered a bit, I had intended to just leave it at the first sentence. Long and the short, no conspiracy now adays, the people who will believe this by and large already know.

[killJOY]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'R')eading about PO can destroy some people's lives before PO will happen .

[nocar]

I believe a big part of the problem is that people do not understand energy. They seem to think that it is like any commodity or thing that people can make. If we (people) need more houses, we build more houses. If we need more golf clubs, we make more golf clubs. If we need more grain, we plant more grain. If we need more, we produce more.

But energy is not like that, even if economists talk about "energy production", and list it under "commodities". All we (human effort) can do is to transform one form of energy into another, losing energy in the process, which of course is elementary physics, but that kind of school knowledge quickly evaporates for most people. If they ever got it. For those who really got it, which might apply to most people on this board, it gets so self-evident that it often does not occur to us to explain this part of the problem.

And people do not understand what a wonderful energy source oil is, dense and easily used and transported, so they believe it is easy to find or invent substitutes. If you run out of bricks to build a house, well you can make more bricks, or build with wood, or with lots of other materials. But for oil - yes, we can make oil from coal, for example, but it will not be the same as finding ready-made oil. We will need lots and lots of coal, and in addition we also have to waste a lot of coal in the process, totally wasted energy. Same (or worse) with oil or alcohol from plants - or animal parts (even worse, as the animal must eat lots and lots of plant energy to make a little bit of body fat). Basically, we have to take a very big (impossible big) chunk out of other things we use or produce today if we want to make up for all the oil we use today.

So this is my explanation:
1. people do not understand energy
2. people do not understand the high energy-content of oil

Businessmen and politicians (often lawyers or political scientists) tend to run the world. Most of them have very little physics and chemistry background. Their knowledge of energy's very special place in the world order has long since evaporated, if they ever possessed it. They do not even know what happens to oil or gasoline when it burns in the ICE motor of their car. I believe they can confuse hydrocarbons and carbohydrates, which is not very strange.

nocar

[DoctorDoom]

I agree there is unlikely to be any sort of conspiracy and frankly the average member of the "elite" likely knows less about how our civilization depends on fossil fuels than the average reader of this board. I get the same reactions from most people I talk to about PO, wealthy, powerful, or otherwise:

It can't be that bad - otherwise, "they" would tell us. Technological civilization won't collapse - "they" will do something about it (insert discussion of nukes/solar/ethanol here). Anyway there's not much I can do about it (insert discussion of PV panels, hybrid cars here). Besides I have my own problems/needs/whatever (insert discussion of kids/the latest high-tech toys here).

Our society is very complex and most people are extremely narrowly specialized. To a very great extent we rely every day on "them" to provide us things we can't produce for ourselves, whether it be gasoline or food. Once in a while it's our turn to be the "them", in our own areas of specialization. But you can see where that would lead you feel powerless to do much about areas outside your own speciality.

I see no signs of a conspiracy gearing up some master plan for dealing with PO. I discount the evidence for resource wars - even if completely successful that would only postpone the inevitable - wars are obviously not a "solution" to PO. TPTB clearly don't have some technofix up their sleeves, either. It's hard to keep big technology advances secret, even during WW2 both sides knew an a-bomb was possible. Also, if TPTB had a techno-fix, we'd have seen it by now. There isn't one.

Instead, I see signs of the sort of slow, incremental changes that you'd get from countless independent decisions. Fuel economy is featured in more and more car ads. At least two oil companies are starting to talk about a post-oil future (BP and Chevron). There is more buzz about nuclear power than I've seen in 30 years.

I agree with the earlier post that at some level even those in a position of "power" who know about PO (i.e. members of congress) probably feel powerless to act. Suppose you're in congress and you know about PO. What exactly do you do? You'd like to institute emergency measures to reduce FF consumption immediately, and being building whatever alternatives you fancy ASAP with the oil we have left. How you do that, politically? You'll never get the support of enough fellow congressmen, let alone public support. You'd be laughed out of office. So you do the only thing you can do - draw up plans while waiting until the SHTF, at which point you will have the support necessary to act, hopefully before it's too late.

[aflurry]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('CrudeAwakening', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('aflurry', 'h')ere's my theory:

industry requires an input, without which it wouldn't exist: funding - which comes from two sources. issuance of debt, the service of which is dependent of economic expansion. and issuance of equity securities, which amounts to a pyramid scheme and as such is also dependent on if not actual economic expansion, at least an optimistic belief in continued expansion.

economic expansion also requires input, without which it wouldn't exist: ever increasing amounts of cheap energy which for 150 years has come in the form of snowballing oil production.

industry in its present form exists only within the context of the upslope in oil production. there is no preparation possible within industry for PO. It is as they say, "outside the paradigm."

so, if preparation is impossible, what do you look for as a sign that people undertstand that this system is in for a serious imminent rupture? cashing out. watch for people taking the short term gain over the long term. watch for nihilism trumping optimism. wars for profit. excessive risk taking. outright thievery. gangsterism. paranoia and fear leading to apocalyptic religious delusions.

tell me you don't see these signs.

[Quigley]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nocar', 'I') believe a big part of the problem is that people do not understand energy. They seem to think that it is like any commodity or thing that people can make. If we (people) need more houses, we build more houses. If we need more golf clubs, we make more golf clubs. If we need more grain, we plant more grain. If we need more, we produce more.
[...]
nocar

[deafskeptic]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Quigley', '
')
Being a geologist myself, I always knew, that the earth's resources are finite. As long as I can remember, I have tried to explain this situation to others, but very few get the message.

Quigley

[DoctorDoom]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('deafskeptic', '
')Well, I'm no physicist or anything like that but it has always seemed clear to me that the earth's resources are finite. That is why I never could square the economists' assertion that infinite exponential growth is possible with my rough model of a 100 x 100 square of land of villagers farming the land; every time I tried to imagine infinite growth, my villagers always ran out of stuff.

[deafskeptic]

Well, I agree knowledge and art can be potentially infinite but I had commodities that my farmers depended on in mind. However, I must note that technology is constrained by the laws of Thermodymanics though.

It is hoped that the post hydrocarbon society will be more inclined to be more culture based than based only on building wealth but then I’m slightly biased in that direction due to my fine arts training.

[perdition79]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')his is most depressing forum ever, I only recommend this forum to people who have strong psychic.Reading about PO can destroy some people's lives before PO will happen .
I think it can be called a 'PO paradox' - you fear to lose something so much you lose it before the lost had chance to happen.

[ReserveGrowthRulz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('perdition79', '
')
When I first learned about Peak Oil four years ago, I couldn't sleep for a week. All of you out there reading these forums probably understands what PO truly means. Forums like this are important, because most people simply can't or don't understand what it truly means to run out of oil.

[DoctorDoom]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('deafskeptic', 'W')ell, I agree knowledge and art can be potentially infinite but I had commodities that my farmers depended on in mind. However, I must note that technology is constrained by the laws of Thermodymanics though.

It is hoped that the post hydrocarbon society will be more inclined to be more culture based than based only on building wealth but then I’m slightly biased in that direction due to my fine arts training.

[Eddie_lomax]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Wolfeyes', 'M')aybe somebody will help to fill this loop in my Peak Oil theory,I don't question PO but there is something which doesn't make any sense for me.