[Pique]

NEO, production ALWAYS meets demand. Period.

Remember that there's a third variable: price. Price will fluctuate to ensure that demand and production are always equal. If the tendency were for production to decrease, then price will rise by just the right amount to ensure that demand decreases accordingly.

[NEOPO]

Thanks to everyone for the comments....bump

Pique - I understand economics yet thank you for the refresher

I still contend that the world could potentially be WAY BEYOND PEAK.

[RattlesnakeJake]

I agree that we’re way beyond Peak Oil, 27 years beyond to be specific. Conventional wisdom treats the world as a single producer and the population of the world as a single consumer. In fact the world is composed of many consumers with many more being born every day.

If there were a single user of world oil production, Peak Oil would occur at the lowest price, because constant demand is more easily satisfied at peak production than at any other time. This of course is not the case when a large number of consumers that are constantly increasing.

So the real issue is: When did oil production peak on a per-capita basis? The answer is 1979 when world oil production peaked at 2.5 liters/person-day. Since then, world population has increased faster than oil production.

Ask yourself if the price behavior of oil in recent years is characteristic of peak production, or is it characteristic of a point that is 27 years past peak production?

No need to look further for the time of Peak Oil, it’s time to look for a lifeboat. (Make that a sailboat.)

[RockHind]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RattlesnakeJake', ' ')When did oil production peak on a per-capita basis? The answer is 1979 when world oil production peaked at 2.5 liters/person-day. Since then, world population has increased faster than oil production.

[rwwff]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RockHind', ' ')that somewhere in the world there are persons and groups of persons who are using way less oil than they were 27 years ago. Examining how this has affected them could give one an indication of how less access to oil might affect oneself.

[RattlesnakeJake]

RockHind said:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '.')..somewhere in the world there are persons and groups of persons who are using way less oil than they were 27 years ago...

[untothislast]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pique', 'N')EO, production ALWAYS meets demand. Period.

[Falconoffury]

Aren't the price gouging laws in the United States going to stop a natural balance between supply and demand?

Also, don't some countries such as Malaysia subsidize gasoline prices, resulting in lower prices than they should be?

[RattlesnakeJake]

Falconoffury said:$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')ren't the price gouging laws in the United States going to stop a natural balance between supply and demand?

[rwwff]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Falconoffury', 'A')ren't the price gouging laws in the United States going to stop a natural balance between supply and demand?

[Concerned]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Falconoffury', 'A')ren't the price gouging laws in the United States going to stop a natural balance between supply and demand?

Also, don't some countries such as Malaysia subsidize gasoline prices, resulting in lower prices than they should be?

[timbo]

I probably go with the economic version of peak, i.e. when demand exceeds supply and prices start to go ballistic.

However of course then we get demand destruction, an nice euphemism for recession/depression, which in theory means we get to cycle through peak(economic) several times with things getting worse each time.

So given the current trends in price I'd say we've started up the slope of peak 1, which should nicely finish off a debt ridden U.S. economy, but that arugment belongs in a different forum.

This then gives the rest of the world 2-5 years respite until China and India fully take up the slack at which point in time its off to a quiet mountain retreat in the hope that the fallout doesn't make it this far south until its cooled off a bit

By way of introduction, as a complete newbie. I live in Melbourne Australia. I've been PO aware for a bit over a year. So far I've read Simmons, Kunstler, Heinberg and Leggett. My worst case scenario NOW, my best 2012.

[RattlesnakeJake]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RattlesnakeJake', 'I')f there were a single user of world oil production, Peak Oil would occur at the lowest price, because constant demand is more easily satisfied at peak production than at any other time.

[Zardoz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('timbo', '.')..By way of introduction, as a complete newbie. I live in Melbourne Australia. I've been PO aware for a bit over a year. So far I've read Simmons, Kunstler, Heinberg and Leggett. My worst case scenario NOW, my best 2012.

[timbo]

Don't think I like your green line it shows that the demand vs supply "economic" peak is hitting now.

Just waiting for demand destruction to kick in.

[ThunderChunky]

I see some oil pumps going in my city that had been offline the last few years.

[ohanian]

[ohanian]

This graph takes into account economic recessions.

[RattlesnakeJake]

I’ve come to the conclusion that the price chart I posted earlier doesn’t say anything about Peak Oil. I have to keep reminding myself that world consumption is always equal to world production. The price chart simply shows the cost of bending our desire to what’s available.

If the world had a quantity allocation system (i.e. rationing) instead of the existing price allocation system, everyone would be forced to adjust their usage to their share of world oil. In that case, we would be much less concerned about Peak Oil. For sure, it would be inconvenient to adjust our consumption, but the price of oil, and inflation, would be controlled. (I’m not advocating world wide rationing, just considering the concept.)

As the system works now, folks that can afford higher prices continue to increase their share of world oil, while those who can’t afford the price do the conserving. How high will prices go? How much are you willing to pay?

[rwwff]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RattlesnakeJake', 'c')ontinue to increase their share of world oil, while those who can’t afford the price do the conserving. How high will prices go? How much are you willing to pay?