[NEOPO]

Hello all,

I believe we are way beyond peak.

I believe peak production will occur well beyond peak oil and that these two concepts are most definately NOT the same.

It may be accurate to say that in the past, production mirrored reserves, yet with advances in production technology I believe that areas such as Saudi Arabia will go well beyond peak oil (midway point) before reaching a production peak.

To be exact I believe that a rate of 60-70% depletion or higher may be reached before production peak.

Rockdoc concurs that this is possible.
I believe Simmons also stated this as a possibility.

Thus we are probably way beyond peak.
Feel free to discuss

Goodluck and goodnight.

[Petro]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NEOPO', 'H')ello all,

I believe we are way beyond peak.

I believe peak production will occur well beyond peak oil and that these two concepts are most definately NOT the same.

It may be accurate to say that in the past, production mirrored reserves, yet with advances in production technology I believe that areas such as Saudi Arabia will go well beyond peak oil (midway point) before reaching a production peak.

To be exact I believe that a rate of 60-70% depletion or higher may be reached before production peak.

Rockdoc concurs that this is possible.
I believe Simmons also stated this as a possibility.

Thus we are probably way beyond peak.
Feel free to discuss

Goodluck and goodnight.

[NEOPO]

The point is that....... I will return

I would have to say that Peak production HAS BEEN and will continue to be a defining characteristic of Peak oil for the small to medium deposits and even large deposits depleted by past technology.

I believe this concept predominantly applies to large desposits that have come of age with the best technology such as what you would find in SA.

Lets give this post a day to "season" and see what the reg's have to say.

[BrownDog]

I took Deffeyes' predictions as saying something like this.

[emailking]

I think he means more than half of the oil has been extracted, even though production rates haven't peaked yet. Is that right?

[coyote]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NEOPO', 'I') believe peak production will occur well beyond peak oil and that these two concepts are most definately NOT the same.

[Dreamtwister]

I think this is part of the reason why the mainstream media has such a hard time taking this issue seriously. Nobody can even agree on a definition for "Peak Oil", let alone agree on the specifics. You can't fit a thousand opinions into a 30 second soundbyte.

[turmoil]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dreamtwister', 'I') think this is part of the reason why the mainstream media has such a hard time taking this issue seriously. Nobody can even agree on a definition for "Peak Oil", let alone agree on the specifics. You can't fit a thousand opinions into a 30 second soundbyte.

[NEOPO]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('turmoil', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dreamtwister', 'I') think this is part of the reason why the mainstream media has such a hard time taking this issue seriously. Nobody can even agree on a definition for "Peak Oil", let alone agree on the specifics. You can't fit a thousand opinions into a 30 second soundbyte.

[NEOPO]

Big hairy bump!!!

Ok here's more thoughts on why PEAK PRODUCTION is not exactly peak oil.

A company,country or individual may reach peak production for many reasons and on more the one occassion whereas peak oil is an event that occurs only once per area and only once collectively for the world.

We could say that everytime supply meets demand that we are at a temporary "peak" in production and this would/could have very little to do with the mid point of conventional petroleum depletion A.K.A "peak oil".

Countries have reached a peak in production and then a year or so later they come out of it and then a few years later they reach another peak in production.

Peak in the lower 48 will not be the same as SA or other areas.

Every situation is similar and still very different.

We are in error if we tie ourselves to only the "traditional" view that peak oil = peak production.

It is a good measure of fields found in the lower 48 produced with the same technology with similar methods etc etc....

Simply put SA is probaby well beyond peak as we speak and many other countries that were developed at the same time in technology etc etc will probably follow and through technology a peak in production will not occur until well past Peak oil for that region.

The north sea area and its reported rapid depletion rates might be a template or example for future expected depletion rates using the latest technologies coupled with todays need to get it our as fast as possible.

Yes a permanent peak in production does indicate peak oil but it does not indicate when midpoint was actually reached.

I do not believe we are at a permanent peak in oil production yet I do believe we are beyond the peak in conventional oil.

Goodnight and good luck.

[seahorse2]

Neopo,

I was reading on the Oildrum that "experts" predicted the North Sea wouldn't peak until 2010. As we all know, it peaked in 1999 and is in what most consider a considerable decline. I think the same can be said of the Yibel field, probably Burgan, and Cantarell. All that being said, it lends credence to Simmons warnings about SA. We are all placing all our eggs, or virtually, all of the eggs on SA (politicals aside) to be able to geologically increase production. If that estimate is wrong, we are in a lot of trouble. SA is reporting 8% depletion rates in older fields (see SA thread). Seems to be of some concern at least to me, that's depletion of 790,000 bpd based on 9.5 mbpd production. That's a lot of depletion to make up for.

[NEOPO]

seahorse,

Yes 8% does not align well with the much milder and generally accepted depletion rates of 3-6% which supports the proliferation of so many SOFT LANDING theories.

Bartlett - Magic number is 70 / 8 = 8.75 years until ZERO OIL!!! hypothetically speaking of course

So its 800,000 barrels this year and maybe 1 million next year.
Just to stay even...........and then there's rising demand.
Kill the demand and you still have a serious depletion issue.

8% certainly lends to the theory that countries like SA could be well beyond peak before production peak is reached.
3% then yeah maybe they have just reached peak or nearing it.
8% then yeah they are way beyond half way at least for those wells/regions/areas reporting this steep of a decline.

I want to add that even though I cannot square with Novus's computations on the NET OIL thread I do see how EROEI will only make things worse exponentially.

Alot of things to make up for indeed.

[skeptic]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NEOPO', '
')I believe peak production will occur well beyond peak oil and that these two concepts are most definately NOT the same.

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NEOPO', 'B')artlett - Magic number is 70 / 8 = 8.75 years until ZERO OIL!!! hypothetically speaking of course

[NEOPO]

k skeptic,

Company X produced 3 mbpd in year one of our study.
This year they dropped to 2 mbpd during year two.
They did reach a Peak in production for this period in time.

Then in year three they go on to produce 3 mbpd again and in year four they produce 4 mbpd and then they plummet to 3 mbpd again in year five.

Its easy for me to see that Company X peaked twice in production over a 4-5 year period yet have they reached the mid point or peak oil?
They may peak numerous times on the way to "The highest peak they will ever attain" which is something we cannot rightfully judge until well after all has been said and done.
They could have less then half or more then half remaining.

Theoretically the U.S. could find 1 trillion barrels of SLC somewhere and then it would be said that the US temporarily peaked in 1970.......and then 20-30 years from now it would be noted that the US has peaked again and that they believe this time they it may be the last

Peak production aligning with Peak Oil is an observation not a rule.

I cannot see how this concept clouds these already muddy waters and I stand firm that this THEORY is correct.

I battled myself on this one - had bad dreams,cold sweats... etc etc

Now off to figure how a much lower EROEI world and a much lower ENERGY DENSE world at that....... will bring about the worse well before even the most doomer of predictions...muahahah muahahahahah

_________________

Thank you Tony.
What a brain fart that was

ANd to help clear the waters........
If all of SA goes into a 8% yearly decline then in 8.75 years they would be producing half as much as they are today.
Which is approx. 10 mbpd..... so in 8.75 years we could have 5 mbpd less just from SA which accounts for I believe about 12.5% of the worlds supply.

70 is still the magic number

[OilyMon]

I have always understood that "Peak Oil" is a phrase tied completly to production levels and not geological availability. I think Hubbert's corelation of peak production and reserves remaining is just a model that can be used to signal or predict the approach of the peak, not a set-in-stone definition. Having looked below I see that I have just paraphrased skeptik's post so I guess I would say I'm in agreement.

The danger lies in technological support of production levels beyond the ideal Hubbert curve. We should be declining if we have produced more than half of the worlds total oil reserves but if we are not then the decline rate will be much higher and occur much faster. Looking below I see that I have just paraphrased NEOPO's earlier post so I guess I would say that I am in agreement and that I have nothing new to add to this discussion! I'm going to post this anyways since I spent time converting my thought energy into digital energy, although in this case I'm getting a zero return on my investment....

[Kez]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NEOPO', 'I') believe peak production will occur well beyond peak oil and that these two concepts are most definately NOT the same.

[Doly]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NEOPO', '
')It may be accurate to say that in the past, production mirrored reserves, yet with advances in production technology I believe that areas such as Saudi Arabia will go well beyond peak oil (midway point) before reaching a production peak.

To be exact I believe that a rate of 60-70% depletion or higher may be reached before production peak.

[Zardoz]

I like Montequest's definition: Peak Oil is the end of cheap oil.
___________________________________________

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Kez', 'T')his field to me is a huge clue to anyone who is paying attention that peak oil is real, and that there will not likely be a gradual decline but one that is much, much faster than most of the people are expecting.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', 'I')t may say so in the main page of peakoil.com, but it isn't correct.