[howard]

Hey all,

I’ve been reading threads since about sept last year and have finally decided to give some input. If im completely honest I believe we are all slightly obsessed by this frightening theory of ‘peak oil’. Primarily because it has such hard hitting consequences in our lifetimes if proved correct but also because to obtain the absolute truth is kinda impossible as a task so we simply keep reading hoping that the next thread will lead to a total conclusion. I don’t speak for all I know but probably the majority.

Furthermore the reason I originally took the bait regarding ‘peak oil’ as a theory is that at the beginning of Iraq war ‘part two’ I was on a personal mission to find out the real reasons for invading the country. To me and alot of the public it made no sense. So I decided to trawl through the internet to find some justification for it (bingo! PEAK OIL = ECONOMIC MELTDOWN = IRAQ HAS OIL) I don’t personally believe that Bush and Co are truly evil to an extent they would invade a country for a bit of extra cash. To me it made more sense that they needed it. But taken to the extreme you could even comprehend that peak oil theory is fabricated for people like me to justify perhaps an even bigger plan for the powers of this world?????

My input is that I believe many people who do not believe in ‘peak oil’ tend to be dependent on the society as is. E.G. They have followed a path / career which has been promised by western society. Therefore, if the repercussions of peak oil are proved correct they accept that mentally a whole life which has been perceived by that individual is turned on its head and denial is the better option than misery for the ‘here and now’. The best analogy for this I suppose would be watching/playing for your favorite sports team or support something you are passionate about…. You think briefly about the fact that you could lose but focus on the winning and how brilliant it would be if it happens…. Why? It makes you feel good and keeps you focused on what you are doing is right and given the option why feel bad when you have hope?

Bah that’s the end of my first post…

[zberry]

I think peak oil challenges many if not most of our underlying assumptions about life. For example, that there will always be economic growth, that our children's lives will be even more fast-paced and luxurious than our lives. And when you start following the trail, you discover things like Joseph Tainter's "Collapse" and Jarod Diamond's "Collapse of Complex Societies" and realize, uh-oh, we're in grave danger.
It's interesting how people come to peak oil in different ways. In your case, it was seeking an explanation for Iraq war. In my case, it was via a financial news show about gold's future prospects.
It seems like we're almost in a Matrix-type situation. People are happy, oblivious to the danger they are in and not realizing how unsatisfying and empty our lives are becoming as we depend more and more on autos. Just going along, making plans for trips to Hawaii, new SUV, kitchen remodel, whatever. Then you learn about peak oil and it's like you've taken the pill (I always forget which color it was) and start to see things differently than 99% of the population (who are being bombarded with a constant stream of messages telling them everything is OK).

[benzoil]

Welcome howard!

It sounds like you've given the issue some thought. There are some great thoughts on this board about denial, etc. Many of them agree with you about people's acceptance being tied to their level of buy-in to the current set up. I don't read alot from middle managers at advertising firms on this site, for instance.

In fact, from what I've seen, the Peak Oil crowd seems to be college age or older than 50. I'm 36 and Matt Savinar is in his late 20's, but there seem to be few people in the "prime" of their careers who are buying in. A lot of this is economic. At 21, if you didn't have any college debt, you can make any choice you want. At 55, with your house paid for and a nice nest egg accumulating for retirement (and your 21 year old out of college!), you also have freedom of action. In between, you are trapped under credit cards, kids' college funds, mortgages, and High Definition TV's.

I suspect that there are many, who, like my friends, figure they'll jump off the treadmill at the last minute. Good luck. Ask a guy holding ARM's on 5 Florida condos how to time the leap.

Another thing I've noticed is that people tend to think of Peak Oil in terms of global warming - that there will be years of debate, and a gradual move towards action (once Miami is underwater? but I digress). The problem is that there won't be 4 decades to debate the best course of action. There is (probably) less than 1.

That said, you're going to have to decide for yourself what plans to make. Some people fear the end of civilization. Personally, I fear the end of cheap iPods, but I can live with that. As a historian and ex-IT guy, I will risk stating that while complex systems crash hard, civilizations rarely do. I'm planning for a long, slow decline to sustainable levels of life and energy with hiccups along the way.

[howard]

Thanks for replying zberry… I was hoping someone found what I said vaguely interesting…

Yes this whole matrix type scenario unfortunately only really exists for the western world though to be honest. The sad truth of it is that we exploit two thirds of the world for our own benefit and its just more recently we’ve been going about things a bit more blatantly – Iraq/Iran/Africa etc etc. In fact a lot of the real potential issues will be that we will be on par with the rest of the world and not sitting with our godlike status anymore.

I sound like a hippy now.... peace!

[skeptic]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('benzoil', 'I')'m planning for a long, slow decline to sustainable levels of life and energy with hiccups along the way.

[howard]

Hi benzoil,

To give you a summary of me im 25 years old and have decided to take limited action about the potential threat of serious P/O repercussions at the same securing a future with current society. Basically I have set up my own company which so far is going quite well (im saving the money to buy a property outright) and am keeping an eye out for signs that peak oil is a reality and whether the mainstream perception of the subject is being taken seriously.

I think the most important action is to remain in tact with society as it stands and exploit its benefits but at the same time make sure you jump ship before everyone else does as then it would be too late. Basically I live in the UK so I know we have a number of things which could go wrong here regarding energy so I plan to emigrate to Australia or NZ if I become completely convinced this ‘peak doomer scenario’ is going to occur sooner rather than later. For I know if I wait until the mainstream are aware house prices will be affected in those countries and immigration laws will be changed as a result and I will be stuck on this overpopulated potential timebomb of an island.

[Carlhole]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('howard', 'F')urthermore the reason I originally took the bait regarding ‘peak oil’ as a theory is that at the beginning of Iraq war ‘part two’ I was on a personal mission to find out the real reasons for invading the country. To me and alot of the public it made no sense. So I decided to trawl through the internet to find some justification for it (bingo! PEAK OIL = ECONOMIC MELTDOWN = IRAQ HAS OIL) I don’t personally believe that Bush and Co are truly evil to an extent they would invade a country for a bit of extra cash. To me it made more sense that they needed it. But taken to the extreme you could even comprehend that peak oil theory is fabricated for people like me to justify perhaps an even bigger plan for the powers of this world?????

[howard]

Hi Carlhole,

I agree with what your saying and think you will find that the main point on your message is actually agreeing with me. I said the main reason for iraq was economically related at ist core which you have justified in greater detail. I am well read in this area although i only joined the forum today.

Furthermore when I said "To me it made more sense that they needed it. But taken to the extreme you could even comprehend that peak oil theory is fabricated for people like me to justify perhaps an even bigger plan for the powers of this world?????".

Thsi was not so much of a naive statement on my behalf but one to make people think and give their opionions on a specific subject (zionism?) which is what this site is all about.

[newhunter-gatherer]

Hi Howard, if you haven't already, read Savinar's 'The End Of The Oil Age' or Heinberg's 'The Party's Over' or Goodsteins' Out Of Gas' to get a better "overview" of the ramifications of P.O.

[NEOPO]

Welcome Howard.

From all of us here at peakoil.com - thanks for the psychoanalysis!!!

Peak oil not only explains the last 4-5 years but if you look deeper you will see that it has dominated U.S. and world policy since at least the 70's.

Carter knows it but the people did not want to hear it.
Carters 1977 energy speech

Reagan and the Neocons knew it and colluded with the feds....

SA and other oil producing nations.......

and


to slow down the economy (interest rates of 20% in 1980)


kill demand for oil
[img][img]http://www.cjseymour.plus.com/finan/prodvdem.jpg[/img][/img]
at a time when much of Russia's GDP came as a result of Oil Exports....

Russia still depends greatly on oil revenue....
russia background EIA

Bush #1 had little choice but to stop Saddam in the 90's.
One more step and Saddam would have controlled a huge portion of the worlds oil = iraq+kuwait+SA.

Bush #2 and company probably believe there is little we can do but sit on the remaining resources and build a base for future efforts.

They needed/wanted the support of the U.S. people so they either allowed 911 to happen or possibly even helped engineer it or at least part of it.
This event is parrallel to the burning of the Reichstag building pre WWII which was blamed on Jews.

Reichstag history

The correlations are seemingly endless.
This is not history repeating itself.
It is TPTB using examples from history in order to further their objectives.
What worked once may work again etc etc...

If you want to understand the average consumer mindset then all one must do is look at it as an Addiction.
Denial, rationlization and fear.

[benzoil]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('howard', 'H')i benzoil,

I think the most important action is to remain in tact with society as it stands and exploit its benefits but at the same time make sure you jump ship before everyone else does as then it would be too late. Basically I live in the UK so I know we have a number of things which could go wrong here regarding energy so I plan to emigrate to Australia or NZ if I become completely convinced this ‘peak doomer scenario’ is going to occur sooner rather than later. For I know if I wait until the mainstream are aware house prices will be affected in those countries and immigration laws will be changed as a result and I will be stuck on this overpopulated potential timebomb of an island.

[newhunter-gatherer]

Hey Benzoil

How do you think Australia will cope with P.O? In particular, their economy?

[bobbyald]

Hi Howard,

Welcome to the forum. I'm also from the UK and have already applied to go to Australia. They have many problems of their own but on balance I feel it will give my kids a better chance of surviving PO should it turn bad.

Remember you always have the option of coming back if it doesn't work out (bloody long swim though).

[howard]

Hi Benziol

Ok I said Austrailia as a possible safe haven and you say its not. So where would you say would be safe in P/O times?

[BastardSquad]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('howard', 'H')i Benziol

Ok I said Austrailia as a possible safe haven and you say its not. So where would you say would be safe in P/O times?

[Aimrehtopyh]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('howard', 'H')i Benziol

Ok I said Austrailia as a possible safe haven and you say its not. So where would you say would be safe in P/O times?

[benzoil]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('howard', 'H')i Benziol

Ok I said Austrailia as a possible safe haven and you say its not. So where would you say would be safe in P/O times?