The first week of April saw an interesting series of events in the forex Markets. The US dollar fell to 0.81 €. The dollar has regained about 2 c€ of that loss towards the weekend only because the William Poole, President of the US Federal Reserve Bank claims the federal interest rate will rise to 5.25 %.
http://biz.yahoo.com/fxcm/060407/1144447922.html?.v=1
I know the EU doesn't want to see a euro too much past the 1.20 to the dollar mark, but with the US economy scaring off investors there isn't much to prevent other then for the US to continue to raise interest rates.
Thus ends the American dream, which is dependent on cheap rates. High housing prices are affordable only with cheap interest rates. If the interest rates continue to rise, then the cheap rate days are gone and the housing prices will have to sink.
An accelerated drop in housing prices would be worse then a stock market crash as most Americans have there livelihoods tied up in their homes. They have no real savings, just the equity in their properties.
Immigration is another factor killing the American dream. Immigrants, especially those from eastern Europe are being let in in droves and depressing the labour market. They are keeping salaries low so that it takes for family members and more hours at work to keep their heads above water.
2006 is proving to be truly a watershed year for the US. It is the year the US economy starts its rapid decline. The war against the Yuan will help propel the American middle class life style into the upper poor class. The Chinese are being forced to devaluate the Yuan, and they will do so, but only enough to prevent a slowdown in selling, but creating higher prices in the US for their goods, exacerbating a delicate situation.
If the Americans were as smart as the French, they would see the storm coming and demonstrate in the streets. But don't expect it. Even when the "merde" is hitting the fans, they will still insist they are better off then everyone else. Isn't propaganda a wonderful thing?