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The Economy must be doing worse than we're told

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: The Economy must be doing worse than we're told

Postby GreyLady » Sun 09 Apr 2006, 19:32:30

Here (Ontario, Canada), it is not even a matter of common. The minimum wage for your labour as a server of alcohol is lower to reflect the expected tip. $6.75/h instead of $7.75/h. Because tipping is expected, and can bring in a lot of cash, it is rare to get paid more than that minimum. So when people stop tipping, you feel it right away. Everyone (in Ontario) knows this, so to leave nothing on the bar...
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Re: The Economy must be doing worse than we're told

Postby TommyJefferson » Sun 09 Apr 2006, 19:54:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GreyLady', 'M')y husband is a bartender at a tavern. ... Recently, people have stopped tipping.


Interesting. Those small things can sometimes be good clues.

I am frugal by nauture. It is entertaining to watch people unaccustomed to frugality attempt it.



$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ohanian', 'I') been to Australia and Japan and I still do not know what tipping is.


Are you being facetious? Do you really not know what is tipping?

http://www.tipping.org/tips/TipsPageTips.html
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Re: The Economy must be doing worse than we're told

Postby Euric » Sun 09 Apr 2006, 22:46:50

The first week of April saw an interesting series of events in the forex Markets. The US dollar fell to 0.81 €. The dollar has regained about 2 c€ of that loss towards the weekend only because the William Poole, President of the US Federal Reserve Bank claims the federal interest rate will rise to 5.25 %.

http://biz.yahoo.com/fxcm/060407/1144447922.html?.v=1

I know the EU doesn't want to see a euro too much past the 1.20 to the dollar mark, but with the US economy scaring off investors there isn't much to prevent other then for the US to continue to raise interest rates.

Thus ends the American dream, which is dependent on cheap rates. High housing prices are affordable only with cheap interest rates. If the interest rates continue to rise, then the cheap rate days are gone and the housing prices will have to sink.

An accelerated drop in housing prices would be worse then a stock market crash as most Americans have there livelihoods tied up in their homes. They have no real savings, just the equity in their properties.

Immigration is another factor killing the American dream. Immigrants, especially those from eastern Europe are being let in in droves and depressing the labour market. They are keeping salaries low so that it takes for family members and more hours at work to keep their heads above water.

2006 is proving to be truly a watershed year for the US. It is the year the US economy starts its rapid decline. The war against the Yuan will help propel the American middle class life style into the upper poor class. The Chinese are being forced to devaluate the Yuan, and they will do so, but only enough to prevent a slowdown in selling, but creating higher prices in the US for their goods, exacerbating a delicate situation.

If the Americans were as smart as the French, they would see the storm coming and demonstrate in the streets. But don't expect it. Even when the "merde" is hitting the fans, they will still insist they are better off then everyone else. Isn't propaganda a wonderful thing?
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Re: The Economy must be doing worse than we're told

Postby peaker_2005 » Sun 09 Apr 2006, 23:48:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TommyJefferson', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GreyLady', 'M')y husband is a bartender at a tavern. ... Recently, people have stopped tipping.


Interesting. Those small things can sometimes be good clues.

I am frugal by nauture. It is entertaining to watch people unaccustomed to frugality attempt it.



$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ohanian', 'I') been to Australia and Japan and I still do not know what tipping is.


Are you being facetious? Do you really not know what is tipping?

http://www.tipping.org/tips/TipsPageTips.html


To be fair, tipping's not something we generally do over here. It's reserved for absolutely sensational service here.
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Re: The Economy must be doing worse than we're told

Postby lateStarter » Mon 10 Apr 2006, 02:08:54

Euric wrote:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')mmigration is another factor killing the American dream. Immigrants, especially those from eastern Europe are being let in in droves and depressing the labour market. They are keeping salaries low so that it takes for family members and more hours at work to keep their heads above water


I wasn't aware that Merica was being overrun by Eastern Europeans. Thanks for the info. Could you point to some specific numbers and countries? It is not easy for Poles to even get a tourist visa to the states, let alone immigrate....

Might check this link for some actual data:

2004 Immigration Stats

Some examples:

Mexico: 175,364
India: 70,116
Caribbean: 88,021
Phillipines: 57, 827
China: 51,156

Poland: 14,250, Russia: 13,358, Ukraine: 13,655, Estonia: 312

Maybe in your area, you are seeing a sizeable influx of Eastern Europeans. Where are you located?
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Re: The Economy must be doing worse than we're told

Postby skiwi » Mon 10 Apr 2006, 05:39:25

The (Rude) Awakening

Say no more...
Let us make him who shall nourish and sustain us. What shall we do to be invoked; to be remembered in the earth.
We have tried with our first creatures but we could not make them venerate us.
So let us try to make obedient respectful beings who shall
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Re: The Economy must be doing worse than we're told

Postby MrBill » Mon 10 Apr 2006, 06:59:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('skiwi', '[')url=http://www.safehaven.com/article-4922.htm]The (Rude) Awakening[/url]

Say no more...



That is priceless, thanks! ; - )

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')uric wrote:

Quote:
Immigration is another factor killing the American dream. Immigrants, especially those from eastern Europe are being let in in droves and depressing the labour market. They are keeping salaries low so that it takes for family members and more hours at work to keep their heads above water


I wasn't aware that Merica was being overrun by Eastern Europeans. Thanks for the info. Could you point to some specific numbers and countries? It is not easy for Poles to even get a tourist visa to the states, let alone immigrate....


Don't worry, never lets facts get in the way of a good argument? ; - )

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')t present, Latinos in California number about 12m, a third of the state's population. Within 15 years they will outnumber whites. Just how many of them are undocumented is a matter of debate. Even if a Latino is a legal resident, or indeed, by virtue of birth, an American citizen, the chances are strong that he or she has some undocumented relatives. By one count, up to 15% of California's schoolchildren have “illegal” parents.


Immigration and asylum

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '2')006 is proving to be truly a watershed year for the US. It is the year the US economy starts its rapid decline. The war against the Yuan will help propel the American middle class life style into the upper poor class. The Chinese are being forced to devaluate the Yuan, and they will do so, but only enough to prevent a slowdown in selling, but creating higher prices in the US for their goods, exacerbating a delicate situation.


The Chinese are actually under external pressure to allow the yuan to strengthen, but that is besides the point. They are also realizing themselves the disadvantages of having both too loose a monetary policy at home (inflationary, over investment in the wrong areas, threat of over capacity) and the limits to how many US assets China needs or wants.

They (PBOC/private economists) are now discussing ways to slow the growth in their foreign reserves, and will likely use some of their record $850 billion for purchases of gold or refinancing the bad debts of some of their domestic banks instead. It has also been suggested that they may use dollars to by crude for their own SPR,but I have seen no follow-up to initial comments to this effect. These events will put pressure on the US dollar as global interest rates rise and the Chinese buy fewer US treasury bills. But it is important to understand what is happening as well as why it is happening ; - )
Last edited by MrBill on Mon 10 Apr 2006, 13:22:23, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The Economy must be doing worse than we're told

Postby TommyJefferson » Mon 10 Apr 2006, 06:59:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('peaker_2005', 't')ipping's not something we generally do over here.


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Re: The Economy must be doing worse than we're told

Postby lateStarter » Mon 10 Apr 2006, 14:45:05

I suspect that in the short term where tipping is customary, you will see a decline in tips from lower to middle class patrons as things tighten up. In the next phase, it will be less (or more, if you depend on tips) of an issue because people will stop going out as much to eat. If you are working at TGIF or the Cracker Barrell you will wither and die.

Wait and bar staff fortunate to be at the high-end establishments will still probably do OK for awhile since the high-rollers should do pretty well in the near future if they play their cards right. If you have a good sense of humor, are fairly attractive, and know how to (appropriately) chat up the guests (and know when to be quiet) you can make quite a bit of money hand selecting the wines for a discriminating and appreciative group of clients...
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Re: The Economy must be doing worse than we're told

Postby SoothSayer » Mon 10 Apr 2006, 14:49:44

>> UK and NZ tipping is not common at all, except sometimes in a restaurant for a meal, but hardly ever for just drinks at a pub.

I worked in a posh London hotel for several months as a teenager.
The salaries were very low - even ZERO ... the tips WERE the salary.

Those jobs can be really horrible, so tips can make all the difference.

Ever since then I tip almost everywhere, even if I am short of cash myself.
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Re: The Economy must be doing worse than we're told

Postby Zardoz » Mon 10 Apr 2006, 16:21:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SoothSayer', '.')..Those jobs can be really horrible, so tips can make all the difference.

Ever since then I tip almost everywhere, even if I am short of cash myself.


A couple of weeks ago I took a cab home from the airport. The driver was an older woman with a very heavy accent. I'd say she was a recent immigrant from the Middle East.

I was feeling pretty flush that afternoon, so I over-tipped her a bit. You should have seen her face light up. I think I made her whole day.
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Re: The Economy must be doing worse than we're told

Postby oilfreeandhappy » Tue 11 Apr 2006, 16:48:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GreyLady', 'H')ere (Ontario, Canada), it is not even a matter of common. The minimum wage for your labour as a server of alcohol is lower to reflect the expected tip. $6.75/h instead of $7.75/h. Because tipping is expected, and can bring in a lot of cash, it is rare to get paid more than that minimum. So when people stop tipping, you feel it right away. Everyone (in Ontario) knows this, so to leave nothing on the bar...


No doubt, this is the sad truth, that your patrons would start skimping on the tipping. I used to be a waiter, and I always leave a healthy tip. I factor that in, when we go out to eat. If I don't think we can afford it, the family eats at home.
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Re: The Economy must be doing worse than we're told

Postby rogerhb » Tue 11 Apr 2006, 22:12:50

This tipping thing is a bit bizarre, I thought we were talking about the Good Ol' US of Capitalist A, where at the market two people agree on a price, then for some reason the buyer now decides that the seller is offering far too good a deal and should have some more money.....

Or is this a voluntary-guilt tax thing?
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Re: The Economy must be doing worse than we're told

Postby grillzilla » Tue 11 Apr 2006, 23:39:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')Or is this a voluntary-guilt tax thing?


Yes, rogerhb sometimes it is. But a lot of times it has to do with another concept called merit. People in the U.S. (and probably everywhere else these days) feel that if somebody does a better job than expected they deserve more money for it. You could also consider it a sort of direct marketing. The waiter or waitress, or any other service industry job type, has the opportunity to work for you directly. The better the job they do the better they get paid.

In fact I am glad that I have the opportunity to show some appreciation when a service provider does a great job. (In addition to tipping I have been known to corner the boss and tell him or her to pay that person more).

When a waiter gets the order perfect, remembers who gets what, times the deliveries perfectly, leaves you alone when you need to be, and is there when you need him to be, senses when you need to leave, and does it all with a smile, sometimes it is more than just doing the job right - it's an art. I reward artists when I can.
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Re: The Economy must be doing worse than we're told

Postby BlisteredWhippet » Tue 11 Apr 2006, 23:54:35

[align=center]
Attention:

The Groundpounder index has risen to US $9,100.00 as of Apr. 11, 08:53:00 PM PDT


Image

:razz:

[/align]
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Re: The Economy must be doing worse than we're told

Postby Chaparral » Wed 12 Apr 2006, 13:54:45

Quite a number of my tenants are expanding their businesses, looking for more space, hiring more employees or have all the business they can handle and have to turn away new clientele. Rents continue to rise (against my predictions btw) and property values are sort of just skittering along horizontally in the Los Angeles area.

WRT tipping, I tip if the service is good (and in most restaurants where I go, it is). Customary is 15% I'll only leave 10% if the service is not so hot, or maybe 18-20% if it is exceptional. Sometimes one has to cut the server some slack if the establishment is understaffed that day.
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Re: The Economy must be doing worse than we're told

Postby clover » Wed 12 Apr 2006, 15:21:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rogerhb', 't')he buyer now decides that the seller is offering far too good a deal and should have some more money.....


Tip money doesn't really go to the "seller"... I don't look at it as charity for low-wage work either- I consider it a direct kind of capitalism. Someone gives me an excellent product (stellar table service) and I pay what I think it's worth. In this case with my extra money I'm telling the server, "you're really good at what you do, and you deserve to be making more than $5.50/hr."

By the same token, if I get really rotten, bad-attitude service somewhere, I don't feel bad about stiffing them on the tip. I don't care how broke they are, they're not working hard enough to earn more than whatever the restaurant is paying them.
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Re: The Economy must be doing worse than we're told

Postby rogerhb » Wed 12 Apr 2006, 17:18:18

Surely a tip giver is not maximising their utility?
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Re: The Economy must be doing worse than we're told

Postby jaws » Wed 12 Apr 2006, 17:42:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rogerhb', 'S')urely a tip giver is not maximising their utility?

Surely you need to learn more about economics before giving your uninformed opinion of economic behaviour. A tipper is behaving perfectly rationally when tipping, he is exchanging good service for money. That the service comes before the payment does not mean that there isn't an exchange taking place. Should someone not tip, his reputation will become negative and eventually other waiters will refuse to enter into exchanges with that person (either by providing hostile service or "altering the product").
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Re: The Economy must be doing worse than we're told

Postby rogerhb » Wed 12 Apr 2006, 17:54:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jaws', 'S')hould someone not tip, his reputation will become negative and eventually other waiters will refuse to enter into exchanges with that person (either by providing hostile service or "altering the product").


Hm, so you wouldn't want to not tip at your local then....
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