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Resource wars: Oil

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Resource war: Why wait?

Postby MyOtherID » Fri 31 Mar 2006, 23:02:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dub_scratch', 'R')esource wars over oil is PO doomer hype.


But the wild-eyed doomers are right that energy crises could precipitate wars at some stage.
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Re: Resource war: Why wait?

Postby bartholland » Fri 31 Mar 2006, 23:13:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')f course, you could say that the U.S. is already fighting a resource war in Iraq


Let's not forget Afghanistan.
Without Afghanistan the gas and oil from the Caspian region would never get exploited.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')r. Chairman, the Caspian region contains tremendous untapped hydrocarbon reserves. Just to give an idea of the scale, proven natural gas reserves equal more than 236 trillion cubic feet. The region's total oil reserves may well reach more than 60 billion barrels of oil. Some estimates are as high as 200 billion barrels. In 1995, the region was producing only 870,000 barrels per day. By 2010, western companies could increase production to about 4.5 million barrels a day, an increase of more than 500 percent in only 15 years. If this occurs, the region would represent about 5 percent of the world's total oil production.

One major problem has yet to be resolved: how to get the region's vast energy resources to the markets where they are needed. Central Asia is isolated. Their natural resources are land locked, both geographically and politically. Each of the countries in the Caucasus and Central Asia faces difficult political challenges. Some have unsettled wars or latent conflicts. Others have evolving systems where the laws and even the courts are dynamic and changing. In addition, a chief technical obstacle which we in the industry face in transporting oil is the region's existing pipeline infrastructure



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Re: Resource war: Why wait?

Postby JohnDenver » Fri 31 Mar 2006, 23:40:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BlinkBlink', 'B')ecause it is cheaper to buy it.


Why is it cheaper to buy it than to steal it?
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Re: Resource war: Why wait?

Postby JohnDenver » Fri 31 Mar 2006, 23:53:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BlinkBlink', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BlinkBlink', 'B')ecause it is cheaper to buy it.


Why is it cheaper to buy it than to steal it?


Have you looked at the cost of the Iraq war lately?


Well, if that's the case, then why should we believe that that trend will reverse? When exactly will it become cheaper to steal it than to buy it?
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Re: Resource war: Why wait?

Postby Carlhole » Sat 01 Apr 2006, 00:00:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', 'S')o here's my question. If stealing other countries resources is such a good idea, why isn't everybody doing it right now? Britain seems to be strapped for natural gas these days, so why don't they just invade Qatar? Why doesn't the U.S. just invade Mexico and Canada and steal their oil? Why doesn't Germany take over Angola or Sudan? Why doesn't Israel take over Iraq? Why doesn't Japan seize Indonesia? Surely it's more in line with the known facts of human nature to just kill the people and take their resources. That's what people always do.


...Because the world is still awash in oil - that would be one of the characteristics of 'peak', just like during the years leading up to the US peak, America had all the oil it wanted, from its own sources. So economics, rather than military coercion, still rules the day.

Even so, no observer can reasonably deny that petroleum resources will be in increasing scarcity. However, who, in this world, could engage in a resource war whilst the US, with its gargantuan military capabilities, stood idly on the sidelines? No one is going to go around filching bananas while an 800-pound gorilla is squatting nearby. Any acts of military opportunism are reserved exclusively for the province of the strongest - that would be the US, or more accurately according to F. William Engdahl, The Anglo-American Oil Interests.

In the 'peak oil' analysis, these are still early days. It's too early in the game for overt military domination over petroleum resources. And this is why the invasion of Iraq has been couched in terms that are anything BUT oil related.

In the absence of a US military led invasion of Iraq, another power would have ultimately filled that vacuum - probably China would have made a huge economic bid, eventually outbidding and over-powering the Europeans. A Chinese agreement with Saddam, like the Chinese-Iranian agreement last year, would have been completely untenable for the US.

So the time had come to pounce; and the US pounced, for geostrategic and geo-economic reasons - long before it became obvious that the War in Iraq was simply a resource war.

And the US would like it's control over the region to appear less like a standard colonial occupation and more like a strategic alliance between friendly nations. But those mammoth military bases are definitely real and definitely being built to last at least a few decades. The government still insists that the US will not seek a permanent presence in Iraq but many question the government's true intentions. And they should, because the government lies like a rug.

Time will tell.
Last edited by Carlhole on Sat 01 Apr 2006, 00:06:04, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Resource war: Why wait?

Postby Rufoman » Sat 01 Apr 2006, 00:03:46

It's got a lot to do with logistics, to invade a country and steal it's resources you need to have boats, planes trucks and armoured behicles, these all take money to run, arm, and keep supplied.
Also you have to keep your soldiers fed, colthed and supplied with ammo and water, this also costs money.
It's also likely you'll have to spend money on resources and labour to set up installations and bases in the country you're invading.
Basically the cost won't go away untill you've left, it's a lot easier just to pay your 70$ oil than to spend trillions invading and keeping a country down while you steal its resources.
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Re: Resource war: Why wait?

Postby seahorse » Sat 01 Apr 2006, 02:25:14

JD,

War is an extension of politics - or so says Clausewitz.

Your initial posts makes no sense to me. You begin by agreeing that historically, societies have fought over resources, but then go on to say its not happening now. If oil is not important, then why did Carter declare Mid East oil a national security interest of the United States? Why was the Shah imposed by the western gov'ts?

Specifically, you say the US is not in Iraq for the oil, then tell us why they are there in not for the oil? However, there is ample evidence the US is in Iraq for the oil - First, Carter Doctrine which declared Middle East oil a strategic interest of the United States. The Carter Doctrine was reiterated by the Cheney energy task force plan, I'm too tired right now to recall the name of the plan. Regarding the last 2003 invasion, the only gov't buildings secured by US forces were the oil ministry buildings. Second, the only FOI documents released in the FOI suit filed against VP Cheney were documents showing locations of Iraqi oilfields etc.

Why isn't Britain attacking Qatar for the natural gas right now? Keep in mind this is the first year the UK has been hit with a gas crisis. Let's see what happens when really hard choices have to be made. War is an extension of politics, so if the UK or the EU in general runs low on gas and they can't secure it politically, then, military force may not be far off. If the Russians turn off the gas taps again, things may be different. To this day, the Japanese claim they attacked the US in WWII bc we were threatening their access to oil, so, why would things be different today?
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Re: Resource war: Why wait?

Postby Carlhole » Sat 01 Apr 2006, 02:26:04

Below is an excerpt from an article by historian Carolyn Baker in which she compares two recently published books. Sorry no link:

SHALLOW HISTORY vs. DEEP POLITICS AND THE COLLAPSE OF EMPIRE

by
Carolyn Baker, Ph.D.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Baker', 'S')o while small portions of American Theocracy appear vacuous, Phillips’ ability to connect the dots between Peak Oil and global economic collapse, and the utility of apocalyptic religion to those invested in disguising and profiting from both is remarkable—especially for someone who has for decades identified himself as a Conservative Republican. He holds no illusions that the United States is on a suicide trajectory, cruising for collapse, and ties together his three major concerns in the book by concluding that “The potential interaction between the end-times electorate, inept pursuit of Persian Gulf oil, Washington’s multiple deceptions, and the credit and financial crisis that could follow a substantial liquidation by foreign holders of U.S. bonds is the stuff of nightmares.”5

As the jacket of American Theocracy states:

The Bush coalition has resulted in a dearth of candor and serious strategy—a paralysis of policy and a government unable to govern. If left unchecked, the same forces will bring a preacher-ridden, debt-bloated, energy-crippled America to its knees.

What Phillips does not address is the criminal empire that the United States has become by way of the symbiosis between government and fraudulent financial systems. For this we must be informed by the in-depth research found in Crossing The Rubicon and the recent six-part series by Catherine Austin Fitts on Dillon Read And The Aristocracy Of Prison Profits.


American Theocracy : The Peril and Politics of Radical Religion, Oil, and Borrowed Money in the 21stCentury
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Re: Resource war: Why wait?

Postby JohnDenver » Sat 01 Apr 2006, 02:38:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'Y')ou are kidding right. What is the history of mankind, but battles for resource aquisition? Why did the Germans march on Siberia and get stalled in the 900-day seige of Stalingrad?


Who are the Germans marching on right now?
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Re: Resource war: Why wait?

Postby JohnDenver » Sat 01 Apr 2006, 02:48:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Rufoman', 'I')t's got a lot to do with logistics, to invade a country and steal it's resources you need to have boats, planes trucks and armoured behicles, these all take money to run, arm, and keep supplied.
Also you have to keep your soldiers fed, colthed and supplied with ammo and water, this also costs money.
It's also likely you'll have to spend money on resources and labour to set up installations and bases in the country you're invading.
Basically the cost won't go away untill you've left, it's a lot easier just to pay your 70$ oil than to spend trillions invading and keeping a country down while you steal its resources.


So why won't those costs continue to stop countries from invading each other in the future? Are you expecting them to go down after peak oil? That doesn't seem very likely considering that peak oilers think peak oil will make the cost of everything go through the roof.
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Re: Resource war: Why wait?

Postby JohnDenver » Sat 01 Apr 2006, 03:16:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seahorse', 'J')D,

War is an extension of politics - or so says Clausewitz.

Your initial posts makes no sense to me. You begin by agreeing that historically, societies have fought over resources, but then go on to say its not happening now.


It isn't happening now. That's what I'm asking you to explain. If it's such a good idea tomorrow, why isn't it a good idea today?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f oil is not important, then why did Carter declare Mid East oil a national security interest of the United States?


That's not a war. If resource war is such a good idea, why didn't Carter just invade the Mid East and steal all the oil back in the 70s?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hy was the Shah imposed by the western gov'ts?


That's not a war either. Why piddle around with the Shah when you can invade Iran and take all the oil for free?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')pecifically, you say the US is not in Iraq for the oil, then tell us why they are there in not for the oil?


Obviously, they are not there for the oil because: a) They're spending way more money than the obtained oil is worth, b) They haven't stolen any oil. Would you say that a person was going to a job to make money if it took them $1000 to get to the job to make one $1?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hy isn't Britain attacking Qatar for the natural gas right now? Keep in mind this is the first year the UK has been hit with a gas crisis. Let's see what happens when really hard choices have to be made. War is an extension of politics, so if the UK or the EU in general runs low on gas and they can't secure it politically, then, military force may not be far off.

Yah, or maybe not. If politics is the first option today, why won't it continue to be the first option tomorrow? Why is Britain waiting at all to seize Qatar? Why hasn't anybody taken Kuwait and the U.A.E. already? What's holding everybody back? If doing a pirate booty raid tomorrow is such a good idea tomorrow, why isn't it a good idea today? For that matter, war takes a lot of oil, so wouldn't it be better to invade while there's still plenty of oil available rather than wait until you're short?
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Re: Resource war: Why wait?

Postby JohnDenver » Sat 01 Apr 2006, 03:27:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', 'S')o here's my question. If stealing other countries resources is such a good idea, why isn't everybody doing it right now? Britain seems to be strapped for natural gas these days, so why don't they just invade Qatar? Why doesn't the U.S. just invade Mexico and Canada and steal their oil? Why doesn't Germany take over Angola or Sudan? Why doesn't Israel take over Iraq? Why doesn't Japan seize Indonesia? Surely it's more in line with the known facts of human nature to just kill the people and take their resources. That's what people always do.


...Because the world is still awash in oil -


So what? That just makes the booty more lucrative. Why doesn't the U.S. just annex Iraq right now, and then annex the rest of the middle east? If resource war is such a good idea, then it should make sense right now. The U.S. could be the new OPEC, and charge everybody else through the nose. So what's holding them back?
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Re: Resource war: Why wait?

Postby Nike62 » Sat 01 Apr 2006, 08:51:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '
')The idea, basically, is a Darwinian struggle for survival, where the strong overpower the weak and seize their booty. It's all about theft.

So here's my question. If stealing other countries resources is such a good idea, why isn't everybody doing it right now?


What a strange question!

Have you ever heard of "The wolf and the lamb"?
A *real* wolf doesn't need of any excuse to eat a lamb; on the contrary, we human being need it.
The most probable reason for this could be that we, with our "reasoning" mind, are subject also to another darwinian struggle: the *memes*.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Memes
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Re: Resource war: Why wait?

Postby seahorse » Sat 01 Apr 2006, 09:04:45

JD,

You haven't answered my question, why is the US in Iraq? Dont' give me the "democracy" angle. If America supported democracy they would support it in Ubekistan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, etc. America doesn't support democracy, it supports access to oil, always has, always will. If you haven't read Michael Klares "Blood and Oil" its worth the read.

Now, you say the US is not getting the Iraqi oil, but that is a false statement. The US has an $8billion trading deal with the "Iraqi gov't" (I use that term loosley, Its more like or has been more of a puppet gov't). The only thing the Iraqis have to trade is oil. So, the $8 billion trade with the US has got to be the oil that the Iraqis are producing. This assumption is further supported by the fact that its not publicized where is all the Iraqi oil going and further by the fact that Iraqi oil production is not counted on OPEC production numbers. I think its safe to argue the American Middle East military machine is getting its oil and refined product via Iraqi production.

However, the US can wage a war for oil, and is in my opinion waging a way for oil, without trying to take the Iraqi oil for themselves. I referred to the Carter doctrine and Cheney's energy policy to show why the US is in the ME militarily (really since WWII). The ME is a security interest of the US bc of the oil, period. Without the oil, the US would care as much about Iraq or the ME as it does Rwanda - which is zero.

It makes no sense to me that you continue to say where's the proof the US is waging a resource war, when the US is over there right now using military force to secure the Wests' access and complete domination of the world's largest oil region, and has been doing so since WWII. Go ask any Muslim in the Middle East why the US is in Iraq and ask why the US is in Iraq.
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Re: Resource war: Why wait?

Postby Peak_Plus » Sat 01 Apr 2006, 09:31:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'J')D. These silly little academic exercises might entertain your coterie of syncophants over at Debunkville but they don't hold water here. Sorry :-D

You hit the point.
But you are also wrong, and that's what JD is trying to prove.

No war is fought for resources.
Every war is fought for power.

If resources are needed to assure power, wars will be fought for them as well.
So, please repeat after me: Every war is fought for power.
Every war is fought for power.
Every war is fought for power.

Resources are surely part of the power equation, but if you can buy them, why fight?
If you can't buy them, will it help your power situation to fight a war over them?

Why do we have a problem with JD playing devil's advocate?
Cause he has a point to prove but doesn't know the answer himself.

By the way, JD, what's the price of sugar nowadays?
This is the way the world ends,
Not with a bang but a wimper!
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Re: Resource war: Why wait?

Postby pigleg » Sat 01 Apr 2006, 10:00:26

Countries aren't stealing each other's resources yet, I think, because you have to avoid looking like a Hitler and getting the rest of the world on your back for being a meanie. Not that the US has avoided that, since the case for the Iraq invasion was wafer-thin. They wouldn't want to attack Canada or Mexico because we're within walking distance of The Homeland, and we're quite compliant anyway. Plus they can't risk mangling any more of the oil supply now that they've screwed up Iraq.
So, if you want to take a country's stuff, you need to cook up some story how you're actually 'helping' them. Ha. Maybe some country will dump a huge army into Nigeria to help them with their oil security.
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Re: Resource war: Why wait?

Postby Carlhole » Sat 01 Apr 2006, 10:26:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', 'S')o here's my question. If stealing other countries resources is such a good idea, why isn't everybody doing it right now? Britain seems to be strapped for natural gas these days, so why don't they just invade Qatar? Why doesn't the U.S. just invade Mexico and Canada and steal their oil? Why doesn't Germany take over Angola or Sudan? Why doesn't Israel take over Iraq? Why doesn't Japan seize Indonesia? Surely it's more in line with the known facts of human nature to just kill the people and take their resources. That's what people always do.


...Because the world is still awash in oil -


So what? That just makes the booty more lucrative. Why doesn't the U.S. just annex Iraq right now, and then annex the rest of the middle east? If resource war is such a good idea, then it should make sense right now. The U.S. could be the new OPEC, and charge everybody else through the nose. So what's holding them back?


The rest of the world is holding the US back. In particular, the Iraqi resistance is holding the US back. The US is spending something like $5 billion a month to prosecute this dumb war.

Back in the days of Carter, we were engaged in the Cold War. We couldn't have run rampant all over the rest of the world because there was too much resistance from nuclear ICBM armed countries like the Soviet Union and crafty guerilla armies like the North Vietnamese. We've never been able to simply do what in hell we wanted to in the world, although we've had our way an awful lot. Your's is kind of sophomoric question.

It sounds like you are trying to prove a point. You should just come out and say whatever it is rather than beating around the bush. You think Peak Oil is a crock? You're an abioticist? You think technology will save us? What is it?

At any rate, subscribers to the notion of some form of dramatic economic dislocation caused by a peaking of world oil production are a varied bunch of people. Some would have you believe that all civilization comes to a screeching halt beginning at Easter Dinner last year. Others think it could be a slower, longer, grinding haul but still an economically wrenching experience for humanity with a population attrition over several decades. Who knows? Maybe there'll be a fusion breakthrough...

We will all just have to keep paying attention to see how it plays out. I'm not going to begrudge anyone if they are adamantly pro nuclear energy or pro conservation. I don't wonder why some might suspect the US of geopolitical machinations in the Middle East...

What? Did you think everyone had crystal balls?

(to peer into and foresee the future, that is...ahem!)
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Re: Resource war: Why wait?

Postby Aaron » Sat 01 Apr 2006, 10:40:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')o war is fought for resources.


I... ummm... errr...

Nevermind
The problem is, of course, that not only is economics bankrupt, but it has always been nothing more than politics in disguise... economics is a form of brain damage.

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