by trespam » Tue 26 Oct 2004, 20:49:06
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'R')egardless of what happens people like Spec ops will always survive. If life continues as normal, they will continue stacking up on weapons/food/whatever. If TSHTF, they may finally get a chance to use those weapons, foodstuffs, and whatevers.
The optimists will only survive if they are right. If they are wrong, they die. If they are right, life goes on.
It's Pascal's Wager. If God is real and you believe it...congrats, you get into Heaven. If God is real and you don't believe it...you're f**ked. If God doesn't exist, it doesn't matter what you do.
God (Peak Oil) does exist and its consequences are real. This isn't something we can talk about and not think about like, "saving the rainforest" or "saving the whales". We have to do something to make the next 50 (ish) years less painful. That is the point of this forum, to inform people and give them options. If you don't want to do anything, fine, but don't expect Neveda or specops to save you.
Pascal didn't think it through: what if you believe in the wrong god? The real one might just be pissed. Perhaps more pissed than if you had simply taken the agnostic approach. Anyway: any God that is worried about something as silly as me believing in him/her is not one I give a rats ass about.
But that Pascal thing has nothing to do with this. I believe in peak oil. That's why I moved money into an oil fund and into a commodities hedge fund. I also own two hybrid cars so I can get a little farther on a gallon of gas. And I will solarize my house. That is doing something. I think it important to have an emergency supply of good as well.
But...There are people on this board who think that society is going to collapse next year, the following year, etc. I think those people lack perspective. If the population centers truly did fall apart as the extremists think that they will, many of the people in the centers will move out and seize the supplies that others have stored up. There are people who will survive by taking from others. And there will be enough of them so that all the preparations in the world will do no good.
But that is a dream. What we are facing in the next ten years, say, is another correction in the housing market (some people have short memories and forget that housing prices dropped by up to 40% in the late 80s early 90s in many places in the US), the stock market will either drop further or stagnate (it's historically overpriced), oil consumption will run into production limits and we'll have some production crises because of terrorism, we'll see a lot less building, a lot less traveling around, and just with that we'll be able to reduce oil consumption by probably 15%. A lot of people will lose their jobs, and the standard of living will decrease, crime will increase, etc.
If people want to run to the hills, great. For the time being, I'm just looking for the best place to put money. I'm thinking intermediate term euro denominated bonds might a good place to park money for a while (in addition to commodities and oil).