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THE Jared Diamond Thread (merged)

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: Jared Diamond on nuclear power

Postby jimk » Fri 17 Mar 2006, 02:47:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gg3', 'p')ain & itch (ten points to anyone who knows where that phrase came from).


I vote for some old psoriasis commercial.
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Re: Jared Diamond on nuclear power

Postby Ludi » Fri 17 Mar 2006, 08:04:04

Better start building them, huh?

Yep, better get on it.
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Re: Jared Diamond on nuclear power

Postby Novus » Fri 17 Mar 2006, 08:42:53

I don't think we will start building nuclear until the really American people start feeling some real pain for the comming crisis. When the economy collapses and unemployment reaches depression era levels the nukes will get built. There is no way nukes can save the current economy. Is what nukes will do is soften the blow and delay die-off (still 20+ years away) or atleast make the collapse more orderly.
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Re: Jared Diamond on nuclear power

Postby SHiFTY » Fri 17 Mar 2006, 09:41:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')an you imagine these glowing dustbins when TSHTF and no one is taking care of them?


What does that mean? The whole idea of building more energy sources is to prevent TSHTF at all. If you keep technological society together, then you don't have a problem with waste management because the systems and authorities are still in place.

A collapse is not inevitable. As is commonly said, what the world is facing is NOT an energy crisis, but a liquid fuels crisis, and a future climate crisis from CO2.

A large extension of nuclear power would certainly enable substitutes like electric transit to come on stream, and slow or remove CO2 emissions.

If the US can afford $2B a week in Iraq there is certainly the funding available to build on a massive scale. As energy costs rise, it looks like an increasingly good investment, especially if the true cost of coal is taken into account.

I just hope that the Chinese start building lots of reactors like the AP-1000s instead of coal plants.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he AP1000 has 50 percent fewer valves, 83 percent less piping, 87 percent less control cable, 35 percent fewer pumps and 50 percent less seismic building volume than a similarly sized conventional plant. These reductions in equipment and bulk quantities lead to major savings in plant costs and construction schedules.


The apocalypticons don't like nuclear power as it messes with their doomer visions, it could easily work and they know it.
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Re: Jared Diamond on nuclear power

Postby PolestaR » Fri 17 Mar 2006, 10:18:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SHiFTY', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')an you imagine these glowing dustbins when TSHTF and no one is taking care of them?


What does that mean? The whole idea of building more energy sources is to prevent TSHTF at all. If you keep technological society together, then you don't have a problem with waste management because the systems and authorities are still in place.

A collapse is not inevitable. As is commonly said, what the world is facing is NOT an energy crisis, but a liquid fuels crisis, and a future climate crisis from CO2.

A large extension of nuclear power would certainly enable substitutes like electric transit to come on stream, and slow or remove CO2 emissions.

If the US can afford $2B a week in Iraq there is certainly the funding available to build on a massive scale. As energy costs rise, it looks like an increasingly good investment, especially if the true cost of coal is taken into account.

I just hope that the Chinese start building lots of reactors like the AP-1000s instead of coal plants.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he AP1000 has 50 percent fewer valves, 83 percent less piping, 87 percent less control cable, 35 percent fewer pumps and 50 percent less seismic building volume than a similarly sized conventional plant. These reductions in equipment and bulk quantities lead to major savings in plant costs and construction schedules.


The apocalypticons don't like nuclear power as it messes with their doomer visions, it could easily work and they know it.


According to a few things I've read at the current rate of uranium use (without reusing) it will be gone in 35 years. What does this extend to if nuclear was doubled? tripled? We are going to need 50 times the electricity we currently produce if we are going to get anywhere near replacing liquid fuels. Yet even doubling our electricity output won't happen imo.

It's easy to say "look the Iraq war is costing 2B/day", where is most of that going? Probably into the wages of the people. If you start drawing more resources out of the ground it eventually becomes more and more expensive, so it's easy to say "look at 2B/day we could buy 1 million tonnes of steel/cement/hope to make these new power plants, etc, etc" but its a very simplistic approach. And it's not like a one off investment, they need maintenance, etc, etc, even more resources.

One thing you cornupians never quite understand is that any major disruption to our lives for any extended period of time is enough to get Doomsville happening. One reason why doomers are here in such number is because there are no alternatives to cheap energy at all with the current world population. Most people here are comparitively intelligent compared to the rest of society.

Cornupians are usually monetary and power rich people afraid of losing their advantage. They will seek any answer to doomsville even though in the back of their mind if they are intelligent enough they can see the real future.

If cheap energy doesn't roll society there is one more thing just dying to, the growing gap between rich and poor in Western society. House prices jumping so far in price that people can barely afford to rent anymore. Give that 5 more years (regardless of anything external) and see how fantastic things are. Lawl.
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Re: Jared Diamond on nuclear power

Postby Leanan » Fri 17 Mar 2006, 11:02:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') don't think we will start building nuclear until the really American people start feeling some real pain for the comming crisis. When the economy collapses and unemployment reaches depression era levels the nukes will get built.


By then it will be too late. Who will have the resources to build power plants if the economy collapses?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')The whole idea of building more energy sources is to prevent TSHTF at all.


But what if you fail? What if future generations no longer have the education or technology to understand nuclear power or deal with nuclear waste? Think of the Iraqis who looted the nuclear facility, and ended up taking home radioactive vats to store milk and water in.

I'm not saying we shouldn't use nuclear power, just that we should consider the entire cost, including the possibilities that future generations may not have the ability or willingness to deal with the safety issues.
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Re: Jared Diamond on nuclear power

Postby SHiFTY » Fri 17 Mar 2006, 12:09:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')ne thing you cornupians never quite understand


So I'm a cornucopian because I don't think we're all doomed? Gimme a break...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')ccording to a few things I've read at the current rate of uranium use (without reusing) it will be gone in 35 years. What does this extend to if nuclear was doubled? tripled?


Yep, they might need to open a few new uranium mines, along with reprocessing plants. Then we can move on to abundant Thorium as fuel.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t's easy to say "look the Iraq war is costing 2B/day", where is most of that going? Probably into the wages of the people.


I would rather pay people to build and maintain things than blow them up. Unfortunately that is not the way of governments it seems.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 't')here are no alternatives to cheap energy at all with the current world population.


Agreed. Energy will probably get more expensive. There will be a liquid fuels deficit. However oil consumption can be cut in half by mass transit and electric vehicles, as in Europe.

Off-topic: $this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 't')he growing gap between rich and poor in Western society. House prices jumping so far in price that people can barely afford to rent anymore. Give that 5 more years (regardless of anything external) and see how fantastic things are.

I agree, but thats why democracy is great- eventually, reformers will be voted in. Or there will be a revolution like France 1789, Russia 1917, and many other times in history. Either way, the balance will swing back.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')y then it will be too late. Who will have the resources to build power plants if the economy collapses?

People who want a job? Remember all those massive 1930s Depression relief projects around the world. A recession is a great time to build large infrastructure for cheap, while providing meaningful (if hard) employment and economic recovery.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ut what if you fail? What if future generations no longer have the education or technology to understand nuclear power or deal with nuclear waste?

What if we succeed? Will the world be saved from a manure-powered future? :)
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Re: Jared Diamond on nuclear power

Postby Leanan » Fri 17 Mar 2006, 12:18:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')eople who want a job? Remember all those massive 1930s Depression relief projects around the world. A recession is a great time to build large infrastructure for cheap, while providing meaningful (if hard) employment and economic recovery.


Things were very different then. We had just started tapping our vast oil reserves. The government could afford big social programs. (Indeed, the big argument at the time was whether the government should run a deficit at all.)

We are now facing record red ink. Peak oil will only make that worse. The government won't be in the position to fund expansive social programs. What resources they have will likely go the military, if what's happening now is any guide. Funding for science research has been slashed...except for military research.
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Re: Jared Diamond on nuclear power

Postby nero » Fri 17 Mar 2006, 12:57:45

I find the idea that we shouldn't build nuclear plants because when the TSHTF all the nuclear plants are going to be looted and we will contaminate our environment to be a wrong headed argument.

If the doomer scenario does play out you should worry more about the looters getting into the military arsenals and getting guns and bullets. Those things are much more deadly than radioactive waste and will travel much more quickly through society affecting many more people.

A nulcear plant has hazardous chemicals in it. Yes, so do many other chemical plants. Should we not also consider what happens to all the mercury in our flourescent bulbs when TSHTF?

Perhaps we should also ban flourescent bulbs because if our civilization collapses our descendents will not know how to properly dispose of the hazardous waste!
Last edited by nero on Fri 17 Mar 2006, 13:02:02, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Jared Diamond on nuclear power

Postby backstop » Fri 17 Mar 2006, 12:58:22

A couple of critical points about the nuclear solution-in-isolation that seem to get overlooked.

1/. Venezuela, Colombia, Panama, Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, Guatemalia, Honduras, El Salvador, Mexico, Haiti, Cuba etc
are just some of the USA's southern neighbours.

How many of them should be allowed nuclear capacity ?

Given the fickleness of US staunch allies/ex-client-despots, eg Pinapple-face Noriega, Ghadafi, Saddam etc, how many of those countries should be allowed nuclear capacity ?

Given the predictable collapse of the dollar's creditworthiness with $9 Trillion of debt and a secret M3, how long will US military force remain a potent tool of international control - So how many of those countries should be allowed nuclear capacity ?

2/. The global impacts of PO cannot be even significantly defered by nuclear build unless sufficient new plant could somehow be magicked into being worldwide and could then magically provide cheaper transport energy than oil.
What a US crash building program would do is heavily increase US energy consumption during construction, while failing to put that investment into diverting other countries into the sustainable energies.

3/. Without a global treaty of the atmospheric commons no additional energy resources will halt the exponential increase of fossil fuels' consumption, meaning that this is pre-requisite to resolving both PO & GW.


regards,

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Re: Jared Diamond on nuclear power

Postby Leanan » Fri 17 Mar 2006, 13:15:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f the doomer scenario does play out you should worry more about the looters getting into the military arsenals and getting guns and bullets.


I'm not talking about a doomer scenario. I'm talking about a soft landing. Not a situation where the zombie hoards are raiding nuclear power plants, but about a situation where we find we cannot afford the high prices of technology.

More and more college-ready kids these days find they cannot afford college. They have the grades and the SAT scores, but they can't afford the thousands of dollars in tuition, room, board, books, etc. Some give up. Some try, and end up dropping out for economic reasons, often meaning they have huge debts with no degree to show for it. I'm not sure I would have finished college in today's economic conditions. I don't think my family could have afforded it.

How much worse is this going to be in the post-carbon age? People will be struggling. They won't be able to afford to send their kids to college. I graduated from high school in a small, rural town where many kids still dropped out of school before graduation, in order to help out on the farm. We're likely to see a lot more of that.

With fewer and fewer scientists, engineers, and other technically trained people, will we be able to maintain our technology? For awhile, sure, but not forever. Eventually, it's going to wind down.
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Re: Jared Diamond on nuclear power

Postby lateStarter » Fri 17 Mar 2006, 13:52:15

I personally don't have a problem with adding more nuclear capability to the mix. I have grown accustomed to things like hot water on demand, overhead lighting and even computers. I don't think any of those thngs are inherently evil. I do have a problem though with the idea that we need nuclear to somehow maintain our current level of consumption in the western world. Until we universally address the problem of 'lifestyle', we are just going to party on until we can't.

It is probably also a case of 'too little too late' IMHO. 20 years ago would have been a good time to start. Do you really want nuclear plants built in a 'hurry' and possibly on a limited budget?

I am all for softening the landing, but given human nature, nobody will really do anything until it is too late. Don't forget about overcoming NIMBY. We can't even get Wind Farms ok'd because people are afraid it will lead to a decline in their property value!!!
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Re: Jared Diamond on nuclear power

Postby SHiFTY » Fri 17 Mar 2006, 16:18:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')ow many of them should be allowed nuclear capacity ?


That is a great point, one of which I have thought about many times. It is pretty immoral to refuse this technology to a country just because they are 'developing' when it could greatly improve their living standards, and also prevent CO2 emissions.

The key thing I believe is control of the fuel cycle. Nuclear fuel cannot be used for weapons as it is not enriched enough. By supplying an international fuel bank, charged with transparently providing fuel and collecting spent fuel, any proliferation risk would be minimal. Economies of scale would make it far cheaper than 'homegrown'.

By supplying prefab power stations and possibly the expertise to run it, along with an international fuel bank, there would be no problems with proliferation, and no need for developing countries to burn coal or oil for power production.
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Re: Jared Diamond on nuclear power

Postby Leanan » Fri 17 Mar 2006, 16:36:05

Will we even have any say about what other countries do with nuclear power? No one seriously believes we'll be able to stop Iran, for example. An air attack might delay them for a few years, but it won't stop them. Meanwhile, China has been offering weapons for oil, including nuclear weapons. So far, no one has taken them up on the nukes (partly because of fear of how we'd react), but it's only a matter of time.
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Re: Jared Diamond on nuclear power

Postby thuja » Fri 17 Mar 2006, 17:35:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SHiFTY', '
')
The apocalypticons don't like nuclear power as it messes with their doomer visions, it could easily work and they know it.


No what we can't stand is a gigantic missallocation of funds that would be better served to help people power down and thrive in a more low tech environment instead of trying to keep the game going for just a few more decades. Don't sell the false hope that everything will go on as normal and we'll be fine because of nukes. Instead, offer hope for a different kind of future in which we have to shift how we operate on this planet. If that's being a doomer, count me in!
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Re: Jared Diamond on nuclear power

Postby PolestaR » Sat 18 Mar 2006, 03:48:53

The USA can't even properly rebuild New Orleans, there are many countries either in a collapse now or the build up to one. Yet somehow magically the "rich" countries will pull through and continue life as we know it now (or something close, ie chuck the SUV and use the BUS).

Say that does happen and the USA, UK, CANADA,AUSTRALIA,etc power down relatively nicely. We give up SUVs, MacDonalds, our Suburbs, etc. The rest of the world who haven't powered down nicely will look upon the others with their starving, envious, nearly dead eyes and think how good it would be to be in our shoes. War.

What about our global economy? Do you think with 90% of world being have nots, and them dying, that things will continue as usual? Either way things will be changing, and not in the progressive, futuristic way everyone hopes and that the last 50 years has shown us.

Society as we know it WILL roll on if just a few countries which never really did much in the global economy start to collapse (Zimbabwe, Argentina , most african countries), as we have seen and can see now. But when it's China, Russia, Eastern Europe and Middle Asia, look out.
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Re: Jared Diamond on nuclear power

Postby Starvid » Sat 18 Mar 2006, 08:07:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('backstop', 'H')ow many of them should be allowed nuclear capacity ?

regards,

Backstop

Dude, I have to say I can't stand this American attitude. Meddling in other countries domestic energy policies is called imperialism and I don't like it at all.

Okay, we could tell people that no one but the Great powers can develop enrichment and reprocessing facilities because it could severely destabilize international relations, but stopping people from aquiring plain old reactors?

No way José.
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Re: Jared Diamond on nuclear power

Postby Odin » Sat 18 Mar 2006, 19:46:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SHiFTY', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')ne thing you cornupians never quite understand


So I'm a cornucopian because I don't think we're all doomed? Gimme a break...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')ccording to a few things I've read at the current rate of uranium use (without reusing) it will be gone in 35 years. What does this extend to if nuclear was doubled? tripled?


Yep, they might need to open a few new uranium mines, along with reprocessing plants. Then we can move on to abundant Thorium as fuel.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t's easy to say "look the Iraq war is costing 2B/day", where is most of that going? Probably into the wages of the people.


I would rather pay people to build and maintain things than blow them up. Unfortunately that is not the way of governments it seems.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 't')here are no alternatives to cheap energy at all with the current world population.


Agreed. Energy will probably get more expensive. There will be a liquid fuels deficit. However oil consumption can be cut in half by mass transit and electric vehicles, as in Europe.

Off-topic: $this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 't')he growing gap between rich and poor in Western society. House prices jumping so far in price that people can barely afford to rent anymore. Give that 5 more years (regardless of anything external) and see how fantastic things are.

I agree, but thats why democracy is great- eventually, reformers will be voted in. Or there will be a revolution like France 1789, Russia 1917, and many other times in history. Either way, the balance will swing back.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')y then it will be too late. Who will have the resources to build power plants if the economy collapses?

People who want a job? Remember all those massive 1930s Depression relief projects around the world. A recession is a great time to build large infrastructure for cheap, while providing meaningful (if hard) employment and economic recovery.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ut what if you fail? What if future generations no longer have the education or technology to understand nuclear power or deal with nuclear waste?

What if we succeed? Will the world be saved from a manure-powered future? :)


Shhhhhhh! Don't bother the Doomers, they can't stand imagining they will not be forced into thier sick dystopia. If they realize we can save ouselves WTSHTF they will want to power down anyway to save thier Mother Earth Goddess or some other eco-mystical butchering of the Gaia hypothesis. Great Depression-type projects are exactly what is going to happen. Hell, even if we are all fucked we should at least TRY instead of abandoning everyone.
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Re: Jared Diamond on nuclear power

Postby Odin » Sat 18 Mar 2006, 20:02:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gg3', 'W')ell, *there's* a nice bit of good news for once!

Lovelock, Brand, now Diamond.... all the older-generation greens with track records are coming out for nuclear.



Yep, All the old school enviromentalists support nuclear. The enviromentalist movement has, saddly, been tarnished by Eco-luddite technophobes lately that care about grinding ideological axes and bathering about eco-mystic Mother Earth gibberish rather than do pragmatic things to help the enviroment.

You can't power and industrial society will just renewables. Anti-Nuclear is defacto pro-Coal and therfore pro-Global warming.
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Re: Jared Diamond on nuclear power

Postby backstop » Sat 18 Mar 2006, 21:30:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('backstop', 'H')ow many of them should be allowed nuclear capacity ?

regards,

Backstop

Dude, I have to say I can't stand this American attitude. Meddling in other countries domestic energy policies is called imperialism and I don't like it at all.

Okay, we could tell people that no one but the Great powers can develop enrichment and reprocessing facilities because it could severely destabilize international relations, but stopping people from aquiring plain old reactors?

No way José.



Starvid -

I'm amused by the incoherence of your resonse -

The great majority of Americans support action against Iran being allowed nuclear capacity, and, as a Brit, my question was addressed to Americans on the board.

I don't see the imperialism you claim to dislike as a particularly American invention, and when you write :

"Okay, we could tell people that no one but the Great powers can develop enrichment and reprocessing facilities"

it would appear that your opposition to it is scarcely even skin deep.

In the world of a plutonium economy, with, as you propose, just a few nations being allowed enrichment & reprocessing capacity
and all others being reduced to client dependency,
I see the concreting in of a nuclear imperialism, not its eradication from the planet.

regards,

Backstop
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