by Dreamtwister » Wed 15 Mar 2006, 14:45:30
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('linlithgowoil', 'W')hy do people say that - defining it in how many days consumption it provides? It is nonsense. A field that size would produce for decades at impressive flow rates, so i've no idea why comparing it to how many days consumption it would provide.
Let's put it into some smaller numbers, so it's easier to follow.
Say Planet "A" consumes 20 barrels of oil per day. 10 barrels come from country "A", 5 barrels come from country "B" and 5 barrels come from country "C".
$this->bbcode_second_pass_code('', '
YEAR 1
A : 10
B : 05
C : 05
TOTAL : 20
')
Now, let's pretend that "C" is depleting at 1bbl/day/year. So in year 2, it will be:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_code('', '
YEAR 2
A : 10
B : 05
C : 04
TOTAL : 19
')
So now we have a production
SHORTFALL of 1 barrel per day. "A" and "B" must increase their production to make up for "C"'s shortfall.
Now, if "B" suddenly discovers a new field containing 100,000 barrels ultimately recoverable, and can be extracted at a rate of 1 bbl/day, that's a huge boon for country "B". This new field will provide enough oil to fill "current demand" for 273 years at that rate. They can now make up for "C"'s shortfall.
Until "C"'s production declines in year 3.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_code('', '
YEAR 3
A : 10
B : 06
C : 03
TOTAL : 19
')
So even though "B" is getting rich off of their increased capacity, and will continue to do so for several centuries, they have in the long run done nothing to address the continued production declines worldwide. All they have done is add 1 more year before global decline.
Now, let's suppose some new technology becomes available in year 2 that allows "B" to increase production from their new find by 100%. Now, they can produce 2 bbl/day for 136 years. Now, year 3 will look like this:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_code('', '
YEAR 3 (Alternate)
A : 10
B : 07
C : 03
TOTAL : 20
')
Looks pretty good, doesn't it? Take a look at year 4:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_code('', '
YEAR 4
A : 10
B : 07
C : 02
TOTAL : 19
')
But you also have to consider that it may take as many as 10 years before "B" can bring it's new discovery online. By year 6, "C" will have ceased producing oil, leaving an increasing shortfall until year 10 when "B" comes online:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_code('', '
YEAR 2
A : 10
B : 05
C : 04
TOTAL : 19
YEAR 3
A : 10
B : 05
C : 03
TOTAL : 18
YEAR 4
A : 10
B : 05
C : 02
TOTAL : 17
YEAR 5
A : 10
B : 05
C : 01
TOTAL : 16
YEAR 6
A : 10
B : 05
C : 00
TOTAL : 15
(Shortfall of 5 bbl/day until year 10)
YEAR 10
A : 10
B : 06 (07)
C : 00
TOTAL : 16 (17)
')
Now, let's also pretend that "A", who has been quietly pumping out 50% of the world's oil for this whole exercise begins to decline in year 10:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_code('', '
YEAR 10 (Alternate)
A : 09
B : 06 (07)
C : 00
TOTAL : 15 (16)
')
This is why people use the "# of days at current usage" argument. It illustrates that even at technically impossible production rates, the discovery in question can have virtually no impact on the greater problem, which is global depletion. Eventually, "B"'s new field will be asked to produce the full 20bbl/day, which of course it cannot. But even if it could, it could *at best* do it for 13 years.
And of course, nothing in this example even attempts to account for an increase of demand, which IIRC is something like 2.3%/yr (please correct me if I'm wrong). but since planet "A" exists in a population-neutral alternate universe, it doesn't have to.

The whole of human history is a refutation by experiment of the concept of "moral world order". - Friedrich Nietzsche